Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated throughout the day, with all three major indices declining in the afternoon. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The economic data for August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment, indicating that the economy is still on the path to bottom - out and stabilize. The current market mainly reflects long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamental factors is limited [1]. - In the long run, the Federal Reserve is likely to start an interest - rate cut cycle in September, and the market expects three interest - rate cuts within the year. The interest - rate cut channel for A - shares may also open, which is beneficial for the medium - and long - term stock index of equity assets [1]. - The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. In the future, the central bank's purchase of national debt to raise funds for the central government and the introduction of more inclusive fiscal support programs will be an important way to stabilize and boost China's inflation [1]. - The liquidity - driven market is expected to continue, but it shows obvious structural characteristics, and the rotation of market sectors may accelerate [1]. - Recently, the bond market has been affected by a large - scale redemption of bond funds. In August, the CPI turned negative year - on - year, while the PPI bottomed out and rebounded. The growth of social financing declined as expected, the real - economy financing demand was weak, and the phenomenon of residents moving their deposits continued. In the short term, with the complex fundamental situation, there is no clear turning - point signal in the bond market, and it is still expected to move in a wide range [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH: From 2,956.2 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 43.8 points or 1.48% [3]. - IF: From 4,553.2 on September 17, 2025, to 4,448.2 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 105.0 points or 2.31% [3]. - IC: From 7,252.4 on September 17, 2025, to 6,985.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 267.0 points or 3.68% [3]. - IM: From 7,547.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,454.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 92.2 points or 1.22% [3]. Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite 50: From 2,952.8 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 40.0 points or 1.35% [3]. - CSI 300: From 4,551.0 on September 17, 2025, to 4,498.1 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 52.9 points or 1.16% [3]. - CSI 500: From 7,260.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,199.9 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 60.2 points or 0.83% [3]. - CSI 1000: From 7,554.8 on September 17, 2025, to 7,476.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 78.4 points or 1.04% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS: From 102.46 on September 17, 2025, to 102.41 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.046 points or 0.04% [3]. - TF: From 105.89 on September 17, 2025, to 105.82 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.07 points or 0.07% [3]. - T: From 108.16 on September 17, 2025, to 108.08 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.075 points or 0.07% [3]. - TL: From 115.88 on September 17, 2025, to 115.62 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.26 points or 0.22% [3]. 2. Market News - Market Trend: The market rose in the morning and then declined in the afternoon. All three major indices closed lower. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% [5]. - Industry Sectors: The automobile service, high - bandwidth memory, tourism, and CPO sectors led the gains, while the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, and securities sectors led the losses [5]. - Popular Concepts: Tourism stocks strengthened against the trend, with Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit. CPO and other computing - hardware stocks were active, with Decentel and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable hitting the daily limit. Semiconductor chip stocks rose first and then fell, with Microport and Saiwei Micro - Electronics rising more than 10%. On the downside, gold stocks declined collectively, with Xiaocheng Technology falling more than 8%; securities and fintech stocks adjusted, with DZH falling more than 8% [5]. 3. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, as well as the corresponding stock - index trends [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury - bond futures contracts, the yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [23][24][25][27][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Range - bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, on September 15, the A - share market had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the Wind All - A index rising 0.09% and a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. In the long term, the Fed is likely to start a rate - cut cycle in September, and the A - share rate - cut channel may open simultaneously, which is beneficial to the medium - and long - term stock indices. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase residents' income. The liquidity market is expected to continue but will show obvious structural characteristics, and sector rotation may accelerate [1] - For treasury bonds, on September 15, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan. In the short term, with mixed fundamentals, there is no clear inflection point signal in the bond market, which is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 10, IH was at 2,937.8, up 0.42% from the previous day; IF was at 4,432.4, up 0.14%; IC was at 6,863.4, down 0.14%; IM was at 7,151.0, down 0.21% [3] - **Stock Indices**: On September 10, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,939.6, up 0.37%; the CSI 300 was at 4,445.4, up 0.21%; the CSI 500 was at 6,932.1, up 0.05%; the CSI 1000 was at 7,230.2, up 0.06% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 10, TS was at 102.35, down 0.03%; TF was at 105.43, down 0.14%; T was at 107.49, down 0.26%; TL was at 114.76, down 0.83% [3] 3.2 Market News - In August, the month - on - month decline of PPI ended after 8 consecutive months, turning flat from a 0.2% decline in the previous month. The year - on - year decline was 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first narrowing since March [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [20][21][24]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Range-bound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares closed higher with the Wind All A index up 0.22% and a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The short-term correction is normal due to profit-taking, while long-term benefits from the Fed's dovish stance and potential rate cuts. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system are expected to boost the market. The liquidity-driven market will continue with obvious structural features and faster sector rotation [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts down 0.86%, 0.27%, 0.15%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 3040 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion yuan. The short-term bonds are relatively stable, while the long-term bonds are more volatile [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: IH rose 0.42% to 2,937.8, IF rose 0.14% to 4,432.4, IC fell 0.14% to 6,863.4, and IM fell 0.21% to 7,151.0 [3]. - Stock Indexes: Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.37% to 2,939.6, CSI 300 rose 0.21% to 4,445.4, CSI 500 rose 0.05% to 6,932.1, and CSI 1000 rose 0.06% to 7,230.2 [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.03% to 102.35, TF fell 0.14% to 105.43, T fell 0.26% to 107.49, and TL fell 0.83% to 114.76 [3]. 3.2 Market News - In August, the month-on-month PPI ended eight consecutive months of decline, turning flat from a 0.2% drop in the previous month. The year-on-year PPI fell 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, the first narrowing since March this year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [6][7][8][9][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [12][15][16][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and various currency pairs [20][21][22][24][25][28]

Report Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish [1] Core Views - A-shares experienced a significant pullback on September 2nd, with the Wind All A index down 1.48% and a trading volume of 2.91 trillion yuan. Since August, the A-share market has shown a "narrowing circle" trend, and the short-term correction is normal due to factors such as profit-taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed meeting and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit A-shares. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the national childcare subsidy system are expected to stimulate inflation and drive the market. The liquidity-driven market is expected to continue with obvious structural characteristics and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - On September 2nd, treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts down 0.18%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan. In August, the bond market was suppressed by the strong performance of the equity market, and the yield curve steepened. After continuous declines in August, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the strong performance of the equity market is negative for long-term bonds, while short-term bonds are relatively stable [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market had a significant pullback on September 2nd, with different indices showing varying degrees of decline. Since August, the market has shown a "narrowing circle" trend, and the short-term correction is normal. In the long run, factors such as the Fed's dovish stance, policy adjustments in the housing market, and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system are expected to benefit A-shares. The liquidity-driven market will continue with obvious structural characteristics [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 2nd, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. In August, the bond market was affected by the strong performance of the equity market, and the yield curve steepened. After the adjustment, the bond market is basically in place, but the strong equity market is negative for long-term bonds, while short-term bonds are relatively stable [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 2nd, compared with September 1st, IH rose 0.44%, IF fell 0.65%, IC fell 1.69%, and IM fell 1.75%. Among the stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 0.39%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.74%, the CSI 500 index fell 2.09%, and the CSI 1000 index fell 2.50% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 2nd, compared with September 1st, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.02%, T fell 0.04%, and TL fell 0.20%. Among the treasury bond yields, the 2-year yield rose 0.62, the 5-year yield fell 0.18, the 10-year yield rose 0.01, and the 30-year yield fell 0.8 [3]. 3. Market News - On September 2nd, the central bank announced the liquidity injection situation in August. The medium-term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase in the open market had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, with no open market treasury bond transactions [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts [6][7][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends, yield trends, basis trends, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures contracts, as well as the trends of funding rates [13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23][25][26].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., rose by 0.52% despite a general decline in major U.S. stock indices [2] - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.55%, S&P 500 down 0.69%, and Nasdaq down 0.82% [1] Group 2: Chinese Stocks Performance - Popular Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with Beike up 4.89%, Li Auto up 4.5%, and Alibaba up 2.63% [2] - The overall trend indicates a divergence in performance between Chinese stocks and the broader U.S. market [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - COMEX gold futures for December rose by 2.42%, reaching $3601.00 per ounce, marking a historical high [3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices up approximately 33% year-to-date [3] Group 4: A-Share Market Analysis - A-share companies reported a total revenue of 35.01 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.16% [4] - Nearly 60% of companies reported revenue growth, with over 75% achieving profitability [4] Group 5: Sector Performance and Valuation - The average sector performance showed a disparity, with the AI industry seeing gains of around 30%, while semiconductor and hardware sectors reached high valuation percentiles [5] - Analysts noted that despite a slight decline in net profit growth, the overall performance remains better than expected for 2023 and 2024 [5][6] Group 6: Investment Trends - Institutional funds have been actively buying into the market, with stock funds maintaining high activity levels since April [6] - The financing balance in the A-share market reached a historical high of 2.23 trillion yuan, indicating strong market participation [6][7] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is characterized by a concentration of funds in specific sectors, particularly AI, which accounted for 40% of total trading volume [7][8] - Analysts suggest that while the mid-term upward trend remains intact, short-term corrections may occur due to high concentration and profit-taking [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market oscillated and rose, with the Wind All - A index closing up 0.81% and a trading volume of 2.78 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all increased, and the stock index basis was significantly at a discount. The Fed's dovish stance and China's policy adjustments, such as housing and parenting subsidy policies, are expected to drive the A - share market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, with funds concentrating on index components and technology - style stocks, and short - term fluctuations may increase while there is long - term upward momentum [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. In August, the bond market was suppressed by the rise of the equity market, but with long - term favorable factors for the bond market, the adjustment is basically in place. Short - term bonds are expected to remain stable, while long - term bonds may experience greater fluctuations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed an upward trend, with the CSI 1000 index rising 0.84%, the CSI 500 index rising 0.94%, the SSE 300 index rising 0.6%, and the SSE 50 index rising 0.16%. The stock index basis was deeply at a discount, and the IM2509 was at a discount of 120 points, indicating strong hedging demand. The Fed's dovish attitude and China's policy adjustments, including housing and parenting subsidy policies, are beneficial to the A - share market. The liquidity market will continue, with funds concentrating on specific stocks, and short - term volatility may increase while long - term upward potential exists [1] Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with gains: the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.30%, 0.17%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. In August, the bond market was affected by the rise of the equity market, but long - term factors are favorable for the bond market. Short - term bonds are expected to be stable, while long - term bonds may fluctuate more [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.4 points (-0.01%), IF increased by 4.4 points (0.10%), IC increased by 18.0 points (0.26%), and IM increased by 14.0 points (0.19%) [3] Stock Indexes - The SSE 50 index increased by 4.7 points (0.16%), the SSE 300 index increased by 27.0 points (0.60%), the CSI 500 index increased by 66.3 points (0.94%), and the CSI 1000 index increased by 62.5 points (0.84%) [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS increased by 0.018 points (0.02%), TF increased by 0.08 points (0.08%), T increased by 0.19 points (0.18%), and TL increased by 0.36 points (0.31%) [3] Treasury Bond Yields - The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.92, 1.31, 1.79, and 2.75 respectively [3] 3.3 Market News - As of August 29, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 83.56 billion yuan to 11409.26 billion yuan, and that of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange increased by 86.88 billion yuan to 10971.74 billion yuan. The total margin trading balance of the two markets increased by 170.44 billion yuan to 22381.00 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their respective basis [6][7][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][17][18] Exchange Rates - The report displays the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between different currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [21][22][23][25][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The liquidity-driven market is not over yet. It may shift from a broad-based rally to a focus on specific themes. The index still has room to rise as the conditions for ending the liquidity-driven market are not yet mature [3]. - When making long positions, strategy is crucial. Fundamental growth themes are likely to be short-term hotspots. One can go long on A500 and hedge with CSI 300 index futures. The ChiNext Index can also be a long target with beta adjustment and hedging using index futures, while the STAR 50 may experience increased short-term volatility due to high weight concentration [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Conditions in August - **Liquidity Drives Index Up**: In August, the liquidity-driven market pushed the Wind All A index up by 10.93%. Last week, it rose 1.9% with an average daily trading volume of 2.98 trillion yuan. Small-cap growth stocks were strong, and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices led the gains. The CSI 1000 rose 11.67%, the CSI 500 rose 13.13%, the CSI 300 rose 10.33%, and the SSE 50 rose 7.22% [3][6]. - **Index Valuation**: The index valuations are above the one - standard - deviation level of the past five years, and the equity risk premium has significantly decreased [3]. - **Sector Impact**: The electronics sector drove the index up in August [13]. - **Fund Flows**: In August, 45 billion yuan of new equity funds and 14 billion yuan of hybrid funds were established, with more incremental funds to come. The margin trading balance increased by 256.4 billion yuan to 2.22 trillion yuan [28]. 2. Analysis of Liquidity - Driven Market - **Historical Comparison**: In the ROE downward cycle, there were significant index rallies in the second half of 2014 and early 2019. The current rally combines factors from both periods, and the conditions for ending the liquidity - driven market are not yet met [3]. - **Style Preference**: Growth styles and small - cap stocks perform better in the liquidity - driven market [32]. - **Sino - US Capital Market Linkage**: There are different ways of linkage between Chinese and US capital markets, including economic correlation, capital correlation, negative correlation, risk re - balancing, and independence [36]. - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: Foreign capital inflows tend to favor large - cap growth styles [38]. 3. Index Financial Indicators - The report presents the main financial indicators of various indices in the first quarter of 2025, including profitability, growth, and risk indicators [44]. 4. Index Futures Performance - **CSI 1000**: The index rose 11.67% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged [45]. - **CSI 500**: The index rose 13.13% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged downward [48]. - **CSI 300**: The index rose 10.33% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged downward [51]. - **SSE 50**: The index rose 7.22% monthly, and the annualized basis discount converged [53]. 5. Index Option Indicators - The report provides historical volatility, volatility cones, and PCR indicators for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 options [58][64][72]. 6. Trading Slippage - The report shows the trading slippage for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts [80][83][86][88].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals declaring Trump's tariffs illegal has reignited the tariff debate, while Powell's dovish stance at Jackson Hole has increased the certainty of rate cuts in the medium term, suggesting that liquidity conditions will continue to resonate both domestically and internationally, with industrial and precious metals expected to perform well as the peak demand season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's global tariffs are "illegal," leading to renewed uncertainty in tariff negotiations, although the tariffs will remain in effect until mid-October [1]. - Powell's unexpected dovish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with political pressures, enhance the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the medium term [1][2]. - The combination of a loose domestic monetary environment and ongoing international liquidity conditions is expected to support precious metals, despite potential short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The tariff debate may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but the dovish Fed stance and adjusted inflation targets provide upward support for precious metals [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for August were reported at 53.3 and 55.4, respectively, indicating economic resilience and supporting inflation expectations, which in turn bolster precious metal prices [2]. - Long-term risks related to U.S. government debt and challenges to the dollar's status may lead to continued strong performance of gold in a restructured global monetary system [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Performance - With Powell signaling rate cuts and the Chinese government emphasizing fiscal and financial support to boost domestic demand, industrial metals are expected to benefit from improving demand expectations [2]. - The transition from off-peak to peak demand seasons, coupled with low inventory levels for major industrial metals, suggests a favorable supply-demand balance that could support prices [2]. - Seasonal disruptions in supply due to maintenance and other factors, alongside rising demand, may lead to a marginally improved supply-demand dynamic for industrial metals [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market was affected by the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Policies such as Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system have also had an impact. The liquidity market is expected to continue, but with a narrowing focus of funds, and there may be short - term fluctuations while having the potential for long - term upward movement [1]. - The bond market rebounded this week due to expectations of Fed rate cuts in September and increased expectations of domestic monetary policy efforts. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a high - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On August 27, 2025, IH decreased by 1.70% to 2,920.2, IF decreased by 1.46% to 4,384.0, IC decreased by 1.14% to 6,837.8, and IM decreased by 1.73% to 7,287.2 [3]. - **Stock indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 1.73% to 2,918.4, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.49% to 4,386.1, the CSI 500 decreased by 1.46% to 6,862.6, and the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.87% to 7,336.5 [3]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On August 27, 2025, TS increased by 0.01% to 102.41, TF increased by 0.03% to 105.59, T increased by 0.02% to 108.02, and TL increased by 0.11% to 117.40 [3]. 3.2 Market News - From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IC, IM, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Charts display the trends of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange rates**: Charts present the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB and euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][22][24][26].

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market showed a mixed trend with the three major indices rising and falling. Over 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume on this day was 2.71 trillion yuan. The Fed's dovish stance led to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year, benefiting the A - share market. Shanghai's adjustment of housing policies boosted the real estate and banking sectors. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to be an important way to drive inflation back up. The liquidity - driven market will continue, but funds are concentrating on index components and technology stocks, with short - term volatility increasing and long - term upward potential [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across the board. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. Although there were no significant changes in the short - term capital and fundamental aspects, market risk appetite rebounded. The dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman increased expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US and domestic monetary policy easing, leading to a rebound in the bond market. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate at high levels [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract decreased by 0.71% to 2,970.8; the IF contract remained unchanged at 4,474.6; the IC contract increased by 0.10% to 6,916.4; the IM contract increased by 0.04% to 7,415.4 [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.67% to 2,969.8; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.37% to 4,452.6; the CSI 500 Index increased by 0.18% to 6,964.1; the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.02% to 7,476.5 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract decreased by 0.02% to 102.39; the TF contract increased by 0.02% to 105.56; the T contract increased by 0.04% to 108.00; the TL contract increased by 0.43% to 117.30 [3]. 3.2 Market News - On August 26, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to Trump's expected visit to China. China adheres to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win - win cooperation in handling Sino - US relations, hopes that the US will work together, and emphasizes the strategic leading role of head - of - state diplomacy in Sino - US relations [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of the corresponding basis of these contracts [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of Treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the historical trends of the inter - delivery spreads of these Treasury bond futures, and the historical trends of cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates between major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [21][22][25][27]. 3.4 Member Introduction - The report introduces two members: Zhu Jintao, the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and Wang Dongying, an index analyst mainly responsible for stock index futures research [28].