Core Viewpoint - The new Chinese regulations on rare earth exports have prompted strong reactions from the U.S. and the EU, with the U.S. threatening to impose 100% tariffs while the EU seeks a coordinated response among G7 nations to address the potential global supply issues caused by these regulations [1][2]. Group 1: New Regulations and Their Implications - China's new regulations require approval for the export of products containing more than 0.1% rare earth elements and mandate export licenses for foreign companies producing rare earth magnets or related technologies in China [2][4]. - The EU views these regulations as unreasonable and believes they have already impacted European businesses, prompting a push to reduce dependency on China and accelerate the development of rare earth production projects within G7 countries [2][4]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Concerns - The EU officials assert that China's actions constitute economic coercion, severely damaging global supply chains, particularly affecting the production of electric vehicles, defense technologies, and consumer electronics [4][6]. - China controls over 90% of global rare earth metal and magnet production, leading to a situation where Western countries feel "choked" due to their reliance on Chinese supplies [4][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Challenges - Historical attempts by the U.S. and Europe to develop their own rare earth resources have faced challenges due to high energy consumption, low added value, and lack of profitability, leading to a retreat from investment in this sector [6][7]. - The global rare earth consumption is only 230,000 tons annually, and the industry requires substantial government subsidies to remain viable, complicating long-term support for these projects in Western countries [6][7]. Group 4: G7 Coordination and Future Actions - G7 nations are discussing potential measures such as setting price floors or imposing taxes on Chinese exports to encourage more investment in rare earth projects [6][9]. - The urgency for a unified G7 response is emphasized, with plans for a video conference to align strategies against China's new regulations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut in September and the time needed for the full resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, along with weak downstream demand in sectors like home appliances and solders, may cause Shanghai tin prices to weaken first and then strengthen. Investors are advised to buy on price dips, with attention on support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to weak domestic demand in sectors such as home appliances and solder materials. Given the expected Fed rate cut in September, partial production suspension for maintenance of domestic refined tin capacity, and the decline in domestic refined tin social inventory, investors are recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position arbitrage opportunities by going long on the Shanghai tin basis at low prices [6]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, along with the Shanghai - London tin price ratio slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years, are due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is suggested to temporarily watch the arbitrage opportunities of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side - **Tin Ore**: Namibia's Uis mine's second concentrator started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons. In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines will resume production after paying fees, with an initial increment of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [2][20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in September may decrease month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and an increase in inventory in September. Indonesia's export volume in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports and a decrease in exports [2][27][31]. Demand - side - **Tin Solder**: China's tin solder capacity utilization rate in September may increase month - on - month, while inventory may decrease [35][37]. - **Photovoltaic Welding Tape**: China's photovoltaic welding tape imports in September may decrease month - on - month, and exports may increase [39][41]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in September may all decrease month - on - month [43][45]. - **Integrated Circuits and Smartphones**: China's integrated circuit and smartphone production in September may increase month - on - month [47][50]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: China's lead - acid battery capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to last week [53][56]. Inventory - The inventory of refined tin in the SHFE has increased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory has decreased; the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased; the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory has increased [12]. Price and Spread - China's tin concentrate price has increased compared to last week, and tin concentrate imports are still profitable. The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has decreased, indicating a tight supply expectation [16]. - The basis of Shanghai tin is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread of (3 - 15) contract is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, the tin price fluctuated. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter as mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed operation. However, the waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, limiting refined output growth. Demand remains weak during the domestic off - season, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power is strong. Inventory increased slightly in July. Overall, there is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price ranging from 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price from 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost end**: Mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, and tin ore supply is expected to recover significantly in Q4. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a 11.44% month - on - month and 7.08% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a 32.41% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Supply end**: Domestic tin ore imports have increased, relieving the raw material shortage in Yunnan and slightly increasing the operating rate. In Jiangxi, the waste - tin recycling system is under pressure, with secondary material circulation down over 30%, limiting refined output growth. In July 2025, refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a 15.42% month - on - month increase and 0.09% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a 1.95% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Demand end**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, with low downstream orders and cautious restocking. After the photovoltaic rush - installation ended, orders in East China decreased, and some producers' operating rates declined. In July, the combined production schedule of household appliances decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics are weak, while demand from tin - plated sheets and chemicals is stable [12] - **Conclusion**: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Due to the ongoing resumption in Myanmar, the tin price may fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented [19][20] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, and processing fees remain low [27] 3.4 Supply End - Domestic refined tin production and its year - on - year changes are presented through figures. The waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the secondary material circulation has decreased by over 30%, affecting refined output [31][33] 3.5 Demand End - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth [46] - **PC and smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year, the largest increase since 2022. Mobile phone consumption remains sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% in 2025 to 1.24 billion units [49] - **Consumer electronics**: The "trade - in" subsidy policy has stimulated some growth, but the demand recovery is limited [52] - **Automobile**: In H1 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [55] - **Household appliances**: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs shows different trends, but overall, the demand is not strong [57][59] - **Photovoltaic**: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation growth rate close to 100% year - on - year, but the actual impact is less than expected [62] - **Other fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plated sheet (tinplate) field is declining, while PVC production increased slightly in H1 [65] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance sheet shows data on refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption from January 2023 to June 2025 [70]