1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, the tin price fluctuated. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter as mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed operation. However, the waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, limiting refined output growth. Demand remains weak during the domestic off - season, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power is strong. Inventory increased slightly in July. Overall, there is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price ranging from 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price from 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost end**: Mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, and tin ore supply is expected to recover significantly in Q4. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a 11.44% month - on - month and 7.08% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a 32.41% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Supply end**: Domestic tin ore imports have increased, relieving the raw material shortage in Yunnan and slightly increasing the operating rate. In Jiangxi, the waste - tin recycling system is under pressure, with secondary material circulation down over 30%, limiting refined output growth. In July 2025, refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a 15.42% month - on - month increase and 0.09% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a 1.95% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Demand end**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, with low downstream orders and cautious restocking. After the photovoltaic rush - installation ended, orders in East China decreased, and some producers' operating rates declined. In July, the combined production schedule of household appliances decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics are weak, while demand from tin - plated sheets and chemicals is stable [12] - **Conclusion**: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Due to the ongoing resumption in Myanmar, the tin price may fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented [19][20] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, and processing fees remain low [27] 3.4 Supply End - Domestic refined tin production and its year - on - year changes are presented through figures. The waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the secondary material circulation has decreased by over 30%, affecting refined output [31][33] 3.5 Demand End - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth [46] - **PC and smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year, the largest increase since 2022. Mobile phone consumption remains sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% in 2025 to 1.24 billion units [49] - **Consumer electronics**: The "trade - in" subsidy policy has stimulated some growth, but the demand recovery is limited [52] - **Automobile**: In H1 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [55] - **Household appliances**: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs shows different trends, but overall, the demand is not strong [57][59] - **Photovoltaic**: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation growth rate close to 100% year - on - year, but the actual impact is less than expected [62] - **Other fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plated sheet (tinplate) field is declining, while PVC production increased slightly in H1 [65] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance sheet shows data on refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption from January 2023 to June 2025 [70]