航空淡季不淡把握加仓机会，油运大周期加速持续看好 交通运输 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 南方航空 | 7.34 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.54 | -31.91 | -81.56 | 24.30 | 16.85 | 13.48 | 买入 | | | | 中国东航 | 5.73 | -0.37 | -0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Group 1: Shipping and Trade Digitalization - Shanghai is set to develop a digital platform for shipping and trade, focusing on national digitalization strategies to create a one-stop operational capability, scenario incubation, and ecological collaboration platform for the shipping trade sector [1] - The Jing'an District aims to enhance blockchain-enabled applications, transitioning from "point breakthroughs" to "chain collaboration" to support high-quality development in shipping trade and establish a world-class trade and shipping hub [1] - The district will attract high-level trade entities and diverse brands, optimize goods trade, and promote the innovative development of service trade, digital trade, and cross-border e-commerce [1] Group 2: Consumer Ecosystem Development - Jing'an District plans to leverage the Nanjing West Road as a world-class landmark commercial area, creating a high-energy consumption ecosystem through a "main street leading, back street linking, and all-region collaboration" approach [2] - The district will enhance the "first launch - first store - headquarters" integrated chain, establishing a long-term connection platform to make it a "China first launch station" for global brands [2] - Initiatives include the development of a tax refund demonstration area and the creation of the "EASY refund" service brand, aiming to build a new international consumption model through coordinated efforts in tax refund, duty-free, and bonded services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of China's service industry opening-up pilot program is accelerating, with the recent issuance of a roadmap for nine cities, indicating a significant push towards enhancing service sector openness and reform [1][2]. Group 1: Pilot Program Achievements - The national service industry opening-up pilot program has shown significant results since its initiation in 2015, with 412.6 billion USD in foreign investment absorbed by 11 pilot cities in 2024, accounting for 50.2% of the national total in the service sector [2]. - The new pilot cities, including Dalian, Ningbo, and others, are expected to promote self-directed opening in the service sector, leveraging their unique advantages and focusing on key areas such as telecommunications, healthcare, and finance [2][3]. Group 2: Differentiated Exploration - The pilot cities are encouraged to develop tailored tasks based on their unique resources and industrial foundations, promoting innovation and complementary achievements across regions [3]. - For instance, Ningbo is focusing on technology services and international shipping, while Dalian aims to enhance its role as an international shipping center in Northeast Asia [3][4]. Group 3: Project Implementation for Regional Development - The Ministry of Commerce plans to deepen the service industry opening-up pilot program, coordinating with relevant departments to ensure effective implementation of the pilot tasks and promote project landing to stimulate regional development [6][7]. - The program aims to enhance service consumption, moving from physical goods to services, and to cultivate new development momentum while shaping international competitive advantages [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a comprehensive pilot task for the expansion of the service industry in nine cities, aiming to accelerate the opening up of the service sector in China [1] Group 1: Pilot Tasks and Focus Areas - The pilot tasks include 159 specific initiatives for nine cities: Dalian, Ningbo, Xiamen, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xi'an, and Suzhou [1] - The focus areas for these initiatives include telecommunications services, healthcare and wellness, trade and tourism, and finance [1] Group 2: City-Specific Support Initiatives - Dalian is supported to leverage its role as a Northeast Asia international shipping center to enhance logistics and transportation channels [2] - Ningbo is encouraged to utilize its advanced manufacturing and cross-border trade advantages to promote the healthy development of new business models in bonded maintenance [2] - Xiamen will focus on facilitating cultural trade and enhancing service trade cooperation with BRICS countries through key parks and platforms [2] - Qingdao aims to strengthen marine technology innovation and conduct trial cruises for non-destination sea routes [2] - Shenzhen is set to optimize and upgrade its free trade account functions and trial electronic bills of lading in shipping and trade [2] - Hefei will deepen reforms in the technology service sector by leveraging its technological innovation and industrial development advantages [2] - Fuzhou will enhance cross-strait economic and trade cooperation, particularly in the areas of livelihood and commerce [2] - Xi'an will implement a trial reform for the property rights of railway waybills and strengthen technology innovation and industrial application [2] - Suzhou will explore the import of materials for biopharmaceutical research and develop efficient and secure mechanisms for cross-border data flow [2]

Core Insights - The Shanghai government is focused on achieving its annual economic growth targets and ensuring a strong finish for the year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The establishment of a national blockchain network hub in Shanghai is seen as crucial for enhancing the quality of shipping and trade [2] Group 1: Economic Performance - Since October, Shanghai's economy has shown resilience, maintaining progress despite pressures [1] - Various departments and districts are urged to intensify efforts to achieve growth, reduce declines, and fill gaps to meet year-end targets [1] - Emphasis is placed on supporting key industries and enterprises, particularly in the service sector and major industrial groups [1] Group 2: Blockchain Development - The meeting approved measures to promote blockchain's role in enhancing high-quality shipping and trade [2] - The initiative aims to integrate the real economy with the digital economy and support the establishment of a unified national market [2] - The focus is on leveraging the advantages of blockchain technology, such as traceability and anti-tampering, to streamline policy implementation and enhance efficiency [2] Group 3: Policy and Coordination - There is a call for coordinated efforts between the city and districts, as well as between government and enterprises, to provide targeted support for key companies [1] - The government aims to optimize policy evaluation and enhance the precision and effectiveness of its measures [1] - Planning for the transition from this year's goals to next year's initiatives is emphasized to ensure a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hunan Free Trade Zone's Yueyang area has introduced innovative measures to calculate inland transportation costs, addressing the challenges faced by domestic import enterprises in deducting inland freight from taxable prices, thereby reducing their tax burden compared to foreign trade enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Main Practices - Scientific calculation of inland freight costs has been implemented, allowing for the separation of international and inland freight costs, which were previously combined, leading to higher tax liabilities for importers [2]. - The declaration process has been simplified by allowing importers to declare inland freight costs based on a unified standard determined by a third-party accounting firm, rather than requiring individual invoices for each shipment [3]. - Enhanced oversight throughout the process includes a commitment system for importers, on-site verification, and regular risk assessments to monitor price fluctuations and ensure compliance [4]. Group 2: Practical Effects - The innovation has effectively reduced costs for enterprises, with savings of 950 yuan per container of frozen meat and approximately 380 yuan per container of grain [5]. - Since the pilot program began in October 2021, 119 enterprises have participated, resulting in a total deduction of inland freight costs amounting to 59 million yuan and tax savings of 7.345 million yuan [5].

Group 1 - The first temporary arbitration case under the revised "Shanghai International Commercial Maritime Temporary Arbitration Promotion Measures" was held at the North Bund International Legal Service Port, involving a shipping company and a trading company over an international container transport contract dispute [1] - The case was resolved in 4 weeks, demonstrating the efficiency of temporary arbitration compared to traditional litigation, which can take 1.5 to 2 years or longer [1] - The trading company representative highlighted the cost savings and efficiency of temporary arbitration, which significantly optimizes the business environment [1] Group 2 - The North Bund Arbitration Service Center was inaugurated alongside the opening of the North Bund International Legal Service Port, featuring shared arbitration facilities and temporary arbitration services [2] - The center has published the "North Bund Temporary Arbitration Service Guidelines (Trial)" and a comprehensive service manual, which includes a list of recommended arbitrators and secretaries trained specifically for this purpose [2] - The shared arbitration court is equipped with advanced technology to support arbitration proceedings, including audio-video systems and translation services [2] Group 3 - The Hongkou District is collaborating with various arbitration, shipping, insurance, and freight forwarding institutions to promote more temporary arbitration practice cases in specific industries [3] - The North Bund International Legal Service Port aims to integrate mediation, arbitration, and court services to facilitate cross-border commercial dispute resolution [3]

Core Insights - The Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has achieved a significant increase in import and export value, reaching 261.37 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, making it the leading free trade zone in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, accounting for over 60% of the total import and export value in the region [1] - The zone has been recognized for its trade facilitation innovations, ranking first in the national free trade zone innovation index for four consecutive years [1] Group 1: Trade and Economic Performance - The total import and export value of the Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has increased from 71.2 billion yuan in 2015 to 536.7 billion yuan in 2024, expanding 6.5 times [1] - The Qianhai Free Trade Zone has implemented innovative measures such as "one-time inspection, one-time certification, and integrated passage," enhancing the efficiency of cross-border goods clearance [1] Group 2: Smart Port and Customs Innovations - Shenzhen Customs has focused on smart port upgrades and implemented AI-based intelligent supervision, significantly reducing inspection times for imported fruits and hazardous materials by 30% and 50% respectively [2] - The foreign trade container throughput at the Shenzhen Shekou Port exceeded 8.19 million TEUs in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [2] Group 3: New Business Models and International Competitiveness - The "Bonded+" new foreign trade model has emerged, with the Qianhai Comprehensive Bonded Zone facilitating various aircraft leasing businesses valued at approximately 550 million yuan [3] - Siemens has successfully completed nearly 2,000 repairs of MRI coils at its bonded repair center in Qianhai, with a total import and export value of approximately 9.3 million USD for MRI components [3] Group 4: Trade Relations with Hong Kong - The Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has strengthened trade relations with Hong Kong, with imports and exports to Hong Kong reaching 59.24 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 90.2% [4] - Hong Kong has become the largest trading partner of the Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone, accounting for 22.7% of the total import and export value, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points [4]