证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 油轮制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务量同比增长 13.6% 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，本周油运运价延续高位，散货运价好转；基础设施方面， 优选个股布局红利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面， 关注 26 年行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | wangchunhuan@cmschina.com.c | | --- | --- | --- | | n | 孙修远 | S1090524070005 | | sunxiuyuan@cmschina.com.cn | 肖欣晨 | S1090522010001 | | xiaoxinchen@cmschina.com.cn | 刘若琮 | S1090524110003 | | liuruocong@cmschina.com.cn | 张瑜玲 | S1090525060006 | | zhangyuling2@cmschina.com.cn | | | | | | 占比% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

以下为上述圆桌的对话实录，由创业邦整理。 从"卡脖子"到"技术溢出" 与过去十几年间互联网应用或消费电子产品的"轻装出海"不同，如今的出海浪潮已经发生了质的转 变。 中国的科技产品从商业模式创新转向硬科技突破，出海的主体也随之变成了生产工具、高端制造软件 以及核心基础材料。这意味着，企业不仅要面对传统的关税壁垒，更要将供应链、生产制造环节以及 配套服务整体迁移至海外。 1月15日，在第18届创业邦年会暨创业邦100未来独角兽大会上， 世辉律所创始合伙人姜慧芳、达索 系统中国大学校长冯升华、亦唐科技联合创始人韩春刚、纳力新材料首席财务官刘玚 、 以及 九识智 能联合创始人周清 ，共同探讨了中国硬科技企业在复杂的国际地缘政治与市场环境下，如何利用技术 溢出与成本优势构建全球竞争力，以及在合规、用工和本地化运营中那些鲜为人知的"避坑"指南。 硬科技企业的全球化底气 姜慧芳： 这几年的出海逻辑跟过往完全不一样。今天的出海已经变成了一道必答题，没有其他选项。 所以接下来的互动环节，我们更多会侧重于出海过程中遇到的实际问题和挑战。在开始之前，请各位 简短介绍一下自己的企业和情况。 冯升华： 大家下午好，我来自达索系统。大 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank's January 2026 Global Economic Outlook report indicates that despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties, global economic resilience exceeds expectations. The global growth rate is projected to slightly decline to 2.6% in 2026, with a rebound to 2.7% in 2027, showing that while resilience is present, growth momentum is weakening [1][2]. Economic Recovery Disparities - In 2025, global per capita GDP is expected to be approximately 10% higher than in 2019. However, the recovery is highly uneven, with nearly 90% of developed economies returning to pre-pandemic income levels, while over a quarter of emerging markets and developing economies, particularly low-income and conflict-affected countries, still have per capita income below 2019 levels. This highlights the severe impact on low-income and vulnerable nations [2][3]. Trade Dynamics - Global trade relations remain tense, suppressing economic recovery. Trade growth in 2025 is primarily driven by companies preemptively importing and exporting to avoid tariff risks. However, from 2026 onwards, trade growth is expected to slow significantly as inventory levels decrease and tariff impacts become more pronounced, with trade policy uncertainties dampening business investment and confidence [2][3]. Inflation Trends - Global inflation is generally on a downward trend, with most countries' inflation rates nearing central bank targets. The impact of U.S. tariffs on goods inflation has been partially offset by inventory accumulation and supply chain adjustments. However, financial market volatility remains a significant risk factor [3][4]. Employment Challenges - Employment challenges are a core issue for developing economies, as insufficient growth will hinder their ability to create enough jobs for a rapidly growing young population. By 2035, approximately 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter the labor market, but many countries still have per capita income below pre-pandemic levels, exacerbating employment pressures, particularly in key sectors like infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare, tourism, and manufacturing [4][5]. Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated global policies to address trade, debt, climate, and financial risks. Recommendations include maintaining and improving the multilateral trade system, supporting financing and debt relief for developing economies, enhancing global cooperation on climate risks, and ensuring financial stability through coordinated macroeconomic policies [5][6].

在公共服务方面，本轮世界银行营商环境报告传递出两个重要信息。一是为企业提供公共服务比制定监 管法律和规则更困难，由此导致持续的"公共服务缺口"。实践中，法律的实施往往缺乏必要的公共服务 支持，而通过投资数字基础设施、推进政府服务现代化以及提升信息可及性，可弥合缺口和推动营商环 境改善。二是监管的便利性与公共服务的高效利用对经济增长至关重要，但这两方面的发展却滞后于监 管力度，由此形成了"效率差距"。可见提高公共服务的可及性和使用效率同样迫切。 监管框架、公共服务和执行效率作为世界银行评估的三大支柱，从不同层面考察营商环境制度设计与实 际运行状况。其中，监管框架侧重对法律法规和政策本身进行评估，以及是否与国际通行做法相一致， 主要反映制度层面规范性和完备性。公共服务着眼于政府是否为企业经营提供了必要服务，如政务服 务、基础设施接入、通关与税务服务等。执行效率进一步关注企业在实际经营过程中遵循规则、使用公 共服务的难易程度，通过衡量时间、成本和不确定性，反映制度在现实运行中的执行效果。从世界银行 评估报告传递信息可以看出，各经济体不仅仅在公共服务供给方面，在公共服务利用的效率方面也存在 提升空间。 从本次营商环境 ...

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum 2026 Annual Meeting focuses on dialogue and cooperation to address global challenges amid increasing geopolitical complexity and rapid technological advancements [1] - The 2026 Global Risks Report highlights that geopolitical economic confrontation is the primary risk, followed by armed conflict, extreme weather, social polarization, and misinformation [2] - 53% of chief economists surveyed expect continued uncertainty in the global economy over the next year, with factors such as asset revaluation and debt accumulation impacting economic stability [2] Group 2 - The World Economic Forum President emphasizes that avoiding escalation of large-scale wars is crucial for maintaining global economic growth, with a potential growth rate of over 3% in 2026 if peace is preserved [3] - China is recognized as a significant contributor to global growth, with its advancements in frontier technologies expected to enhance productivity and create growth opportunities [4] - China's investments in clean energy, infrastructure, and the digital economy are setting a new paradigm for sustainable investment, aligning with global development goals [5] Group 3 - The "Global Cooperation Barometer" indicates that despite challenges to multilateralism, global cooperation shows resilience, highlighting the need for constructive dialogue in a complex geopolitical environment [6] - The theme of the 2026 Annual Meeting is "The Spirit of Dialogue," focusing on collaboration in a competitive world, unlocking new growth drivers, and scaling innovative technologies [6] - The meeting gathers a record number of global leaders from government, business, and NGOs, emphasizing the importance of communication and understanding for economic progress [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [2]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in oil transportation rates due to heightened sanctions from the US and EU against Iran and Venezuela, leading to strong market sentiment among shipowners [6][17]. - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stock selections, particularly in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [19]. - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to see a gradual improvement in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil transportation rates have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TD3C-TCE reaching $116,000 per day, a notable increase of 10.8% from the previous week [12][49]. - The dry bulk market is showing signs of seasonal decline, with the BDI index reporting a drop of 7.2% [16][48]. - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [17]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a 17.3% increase in truck traffic volume, while rail freight has seen a 10.3% increase week-on-week [19][18]. - The report suggests investing in highway assets like Anhui Expressway, which are expected to provide stable returns [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.7% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with December showing a slowdown to 2.6% [20][21]. - Major companies are expected to benefit from operational adjustments, with SF Express projected to achieve faster profit growth in 2026 [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase, with passenger volumes showing a 3.6% year-on-year decline, but a potential recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to improved market conditions [25][22]. - The report emphasizes monitoring the impact of the Spring Festival travel season and geopolitical factors on oil prices [25]. Logistics Sector Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing stable air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index remaining flat week-on-week [26]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cross-border transport volumes and short-haul freight rates [26].

Summary of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) Strategic Update Call Company Overview - **Company**: Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) - **Industry**: Steel and Mining - **Date of Call**: January 15, 2026 Key Points Strategic Plan and Deleveraging - CSN aims to reduce leverage by approximately **$16 billion to $18 billion** through divestment of certain assets in 2026, targeting a leverage ratio of around **1.8** [3][4][10] - The company has already initiated the sale of **BRL 3.35 billion** in shares to MRS as part of this deleveraging strategy [15][32] - The goal is to enter a new growth cycle of **eight years** while maintaining a sustainable leverage level [4] Mining Segment - CSN is the **seventh-largest iron ore exporter** globally, with a strong EBITDA generation and high profitability [4] - The mining segment is expected to achieve an EBITDA uplift of approximately **$4 billion per year** [4] - The company has **$3 billion** in reserves supporting an extended mine life [4] Infrastructure Segment - CSN Infrastructure includes **seven railway, port, and multimodal assets**, with a projected EBITDA of over **BRL 60 billion** in the near future [5][6] - The company plans to sell a relevant share of infrastructure assets by 2026 to enhance cash flow [6][9] Cement Segment - CSN Cement is a leading player in Brazil's cement production, with EBITDA margins reaching **30%**, the highest in the sector [7] - The short-term strategy includes seeking the sale of control of CSN Cement by 2026 [7][10] Steel Segment - CSN Steel is recovering profitability and is one of Brazil's largest integrated flat steel producers [8] - The company is assessing strategic alternatives and partnerships to maximize cash generation in the steel segment [8][9] Energy Segment - CSN Energy is one of Brazil's largest renewable energy platforms, achieving self-sufficiency since 2023 [9] - The segment has EBITDA margins between **30% and 40%**, with a focus on energy transition [9] Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces challenges from high interest rates and competition from imported products, which impact growth and investment [12][13] - CSN emphasizes the need for commitment to investment and growth despite the current economic environment [12][19] Future Outlook - CSN is optimistic about the improvement in profitability and market conditions in 2026, driven by strategic actions taken in 2025 [15] - The company is focused on enhancing its capital structure and reducing leverage to facilitate future investments [19][40] Investor Engagement - The management is actively engaging with investors and exploring strategic partnerships to enhance capital generation [44] - The company is open to future IPOs or sales of stakes in its segments, depending on market conditions and valuations [37][45] Regulatory Considerations - The sale of assets will require regulatory approvals, including from antitrust agencies [50] - The company is prepared to navigate these procedural requirements as part of its strategic initiatives [50] Conclusion CSN is strategically positioning itself for growth through a comprehensive deleveraging plan, focusing on its core segments of mining, infrastructure, cement, steel, and energy. The company aims to enhance profitability while navigating market challenges and engaging with investors for future opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The insurance investment officers are optimistic about the investment outlook for 2026, with over 70% expressing a "optimistic" or "relatively optimistic" sentiment, indicating a significant improvement compared to early 2025 [5][7]. Investment Preferences - The most favored asset class for increased allocation in 2026 is "stocks and equity funds," followed by "equity investments" [6][19]. - A significant majority of insurance investment officers (over 70%) plan to increase their allocation to equity assets, with 68.42% expecting a "slight increase" and 2.63% anticipating a "significant increase" [22][23]. Sector Outlook - The sectors viewed as having the most potential in A-shares for 2026 include technology (26.36%), cyclical (21.71%), and consumer sectors (16.28%) [26]. - Nearly 70% of insurance investment officers still see value in dividend-paying assets, driven by a low-interest-rate environment [26]. Market Sentiment - 89.47% of investment officers believe that the opportunities in the A-share market outweigh the risks, citing factors such as corporate profit improvement and structural opportunities [10]. - The overall sentiment towards the investment environment for 2026 is mixed, with 36.84% of officers believing it will weaken compared to 2025, while 23.68% expect it to improve [9]. Geopolitical Concerns - Geopolitical issues are identified as the primary uncertainty for 2026, with around 40% of investment officers highlighting this as a major concern [15]. - Concerns about the international market environment and domestic economic conditions also rank high among investment officers [15][16]. Risk Factors - The primary risk identified by investment officers is stock market volatility, with over 50% expressing concern about this issue [17]. - Credit risk remains a significant concern, particularly in light of potential defaults and liquidity issues [17]. Investment Strategy - Investment officers are increasingly diversifying their asset allocation, with a notable interest in alternative investments such as real estate investment trusts (REITs) [21]. - The focus on maintaining a balanced approach to equity investments is emphasized, with a need to optimize the investment structure while keeping the overall proportion stable [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]