芳烃市场周报： 成本端弱势延续，调油仍有驱动 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年11月21日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，支撑偏弱，石脑油价格当前573美元，PXCFR价格832美元。中石化11月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至6800元/吨，10月 中石化PX结算价格6620元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.81万吨，环比上周-0.41%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比上周-0.36%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率79.38%，环 比-0.33%。上海石化60万吨装置检修重启，中化泉州PX装置故障，目前运行负荷50%。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机。PX工厂的生产 积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率74.29%，环比-1.89%，同比-6.74%。周内西南及华东装置检修，供应端持续缩量，本周期国内PTA整体产能利用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. [3] - In the short term, the prices of various energy and chemical products will mainly fluctuate, with different influencing factors and trends for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are loosening, and supply pressure persists. The price will fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the decline in US commercial crude inventories, and the support from refined oil cracking spreads. [7] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price will oscillate weakly. Factors such as OPEC+ production increase, the end of the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the possible restart of Russia-Ukraine talks have led to a high inventory and a weak demand, resulting in a high overvaluation of the absolute price. [8] - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price will oscillate weakly. The supply may decrease due to the reduction of Russian exports, but the demand is weak, and the cracking spread is also weak. [8] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength of refined oil supports low-sulfur fuel oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current low valuation and the support from refined oil prices will cause it to fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **Methanol**: High inventory restricts the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It will oscillate at a low level. The inventory is still at a historical high, and although there is a slight decline, it still suppresses the price. [25] - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price oscillates narrowly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has certain support, but the market sentiment is uncertain after the spot price increase. [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The boosting effect is limited, and there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to decline in the off-season, resulting in a limited upward space for the price. [17] - **PX**: Rumors of blending oil have disturbed the market again. The price will oscillate slightly upward in the short term, affected by market sentiment and rumors of device maintenance. [11] - **PTA**: The upstream supports the valuation, and the new downstream filament production capacity is put into operation, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. The price will fluctuate with the upstream cost, and the processing profit is temporarily supported. [13] - **Short Fiber**: The fundamentals are average, and it follows the upstream passively. The price will oscillate with the upstream, and the processing fee may be compressed. [20] - **Bottle Chip**: The slight rebound of upstream raw materials supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support. [22] - **Propylene**: The spot price strengthens in the short term, and PL oscillates. The spot has short-term support, and the demand has increased due to the restart of downstream maintenance devices. [30] - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and high inventory. [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price drops, and the maintenance support is limited, so it oscillates. The price will oscillate, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the high inventory of the upstream and middle reaches. [28] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending oil disturbs the market, and it oscillates after the rebound. The price will oscillate, affected by the uncertainty of the blending oil narrative and the pressure from the pure benzene inventory. [16] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the price, and it may be anchored to production reduction. The price will be cautiously weak, and the market focuses on the production reduction logic and marginal device dynamics. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply and demand, it will oscillate. The supply and demand are expected to be poor, and the price will oscillate due to the possible increase in cost caused by the decline in liquid chlorine price. [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for the future price trends of different varieties. For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 12, a change of - 4. [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also change. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 15, a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, PTA and ethylene glycol, etc., have also changed, which reflects the relative price relationship between different varieties. [36] 3.3 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the text, so it is skipped. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and plate index of commodities have different degrees of increase. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2553.16, an increase of 0.73%. [278] - **Energy Index**: On November 19, 2025, the energy index increased by 1.26% today, 2.26% in the past 5 days, 2.56% in the past month, and decreased by 5.69% since the beginning of the year. [279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. With the end of the peak season, terminal demand may face a weakening trend [6]. - In terms of pure benzene, from the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, it is bullish in the medium and long - term. Although the downstream may have lower - than - expected production due to high inventory and low profit, the upside space may be similar to that in Q3 2025, and the downside space is limited [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Industry Chain Profit Distribution - **Overall Situation**: The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit concentrated upstream. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has declined. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6][7]. - **Specific Indicators**: - **PXN**: The current value is 238.7, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 and a year - on - year increase of 61.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 67 [7]. - **TA Processing Fee**: The current value is 64.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 71.55 and a year - on - year decrease of 272.73. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 0 [7]. - **Styrene/Crude Oil**: At a low level, the current value is 2.02, with a month - on - month increase of 2.02 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.22. The 5 - year same - period percentile is 38, and the 1 - year rolling percentile is 27 [9]. - **PTA/Crude Oil**: It has declined recently. The current value is 1.29, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 54 [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Bearish in the future. The current value is 65.99, with a month - on - month increase of 4.93 and a year - on - year decrease of 8.39. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 20 [10]. - **Naphtha Crack Spread**: In a downward trend. The current value is 89.42, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.51 and a year - on - year decrease of 45.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 31 [10]. - **BZN**: At a low level within the year, it started to rise in October after a continuous decline since mid - August and has declined recently. The current value is 103.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 26.63 and a year - on - year decrease of 114.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 2 [10]. - **Styrene Ethylbenzene Dehydrogenation Profit**: At a low level within the year, it started to decline oscillating at the end of June and has recovered recently. The current value is - 230.72, with a month - on - month increase of 108.2 and a year - on - year decrease of 767.86. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 6 [10]. 3.2 Spot Situation of Each Link - **Naphtha MOPJ**: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis has rebounded recently [29]. - **BZ Paper Cargo Basis**: It has rebounded recently [29]. - **PX (01 Contract Basis)**: It has been running relatively smoothly recently [29]. - **Styrene (11 Contract Basis)**: Near 0, with little change [29]. - **PTA (01 Contract Basis)**: Relatively stable [29]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Upstream**: - **Cracking**: The cracking profit of naphtha in China and the profit of aromatic hydrocarbon combination have corresponding data performance, and the toluene disproportionation spread also has specific values [37][43][46]. - **Capacity and Maintenance**: The annual capacity has increased by 26 (current: 2787, previous: 2761), and the maintenance volume has increased by 0.55 (current: 5.32, previous: 4.77). Some enterprises have new maintenance, and some have ended maintenance [76]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Pure Benzene**: Multiple enterprises have put into production new capacities in 2025. The current annual production capacity growth rate of BZ is 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.1%. The current annual production capacity growth rate of downstream is 4.8%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.5% (or 22.8% considering some uncertain devices) [63][64]. - **PX**: The domestic start - up rate has corresponding data performance [85]. 3.4 Foreign Supply - China's aromatic hydrocarbons are mostly imported from South Korea. South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply. Currently, due to the weakening of gasoline blending, South Korean goods have flowed to China, and the domestic pure benzene supply has increased year - on - year. However, in the future, as South Korean maintenance increases, the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [99][100]. 3.5 Gasoline Blending - Related - **New - Malaysia Region**: Gasoline blending has weakened significantly in the past three months, and the region has returned to a net - import trend of gasoline [111]. - **US Gasoline**: The octane spread is weaker than the same period last year. The refinery profit is good, and high supply is expected to continue. The shutdown of a California refinery provides support for the gasoline crack spread [113]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: - **Styrene**: The profit is at a low level, the start - up rate has declined, and the inventory has increased recently [151][157]. - **Caprolactam**: The start - up rate is at a high level but has declined, the profit is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level within a year [158]. - **Adipic Acid**: The start - up rate is relatively high, and the profit is at a low level [151]. - **Phenol**: The start - up rate is relatively neutral, and the profit level is low [151]. - **Aniline**: The start - up rate is okay, the profit is at a historical low but at a high level within the year [151]. - **PX Downstream (PTA)**: The spot processing fee is about 100 yuan/ton. With the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is continuously compressed [200]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Home Appliances**: The sales of four major home appliances (TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators) have different performance trends. TVs have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing, and refrigerators have different sales trends online and offline [209][210]. - **Automobiles**: In August 2025, automobile sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing significantly [221]. - **Clothing and Textiles**: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].