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芳烃市场周报:节后需求修复,高效益延续(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20260227
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 11:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since Q4, PX downstream demand has improved with certain support. With positive news such as the China-US tariff meeting and anti-involution, PX has maintained a strong pattern. Since late December, the cost side has continuously risen, and PX has seen a significant increase. Although the efficiency was good before the Spring Festival and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further support from the supply - demand side. The strong absolute price trend is mainly due to the strong support of crude oil. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, the main contract switches to 2605, with a strong expectation during the maintenance season. However, driven by high efficiency, domestic and foreign supply has returned, and the production enthusiasm remains strong, alleviating the previous expectation of supply shortage. [5] - For pure benzene, overall, affected by the successive implementation of new production capacities, domestic production has significantly increased. Coupled with the oversupply in the overseas market, the overall supply - demand situation still exerts a negative impact on the pure benzene price. In February, downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday, and the market was dull. The high inventory and high import volume at the port are difficult to quickly reduce, and inventory may continue to accumulate from March. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, logistics and transportation return to normal, downstream factories have restocking expectations, and refineries' bullish sentiment remains. With the continuation of styrene profit after the Spring Festival, the new consumption still supports the demand side of pure benzene, and there is still an expectation of the approaching peak season in the short term. [6] - Since November 2025, the supply - demand structure of styrene has improved. With domestic factories successively shutting down for maintenance and reducing loads, styrene output has decreased, port inventory at high levels has decreased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Since late December, the continuous rise in aromatics prices, along with the improvement of the macro - market sentiment in 2026 and the rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical influence, have further alleviated the market's bearish sentiment. Driven by the upward movement of the external market, the spot and futures prices of styrene have increased significantly. In the short term, before the Spring Festival, styrene remained relatively weak due to the inventory accumulation of upstream pure benzene and the expectation of downstream terminal shutdown during the Spring Festival. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the situation at the styrene port was better than expected, but the recovery of the demand side may need a buffer. On the other hand, during the Spring Festival, the geopolitical influence between the US and Iran intensified, the cost - side oil price increased, and styrene followed the upward movement and then oscillated and gave back. In the short term, it is still mainly affected by the cost side and geopolitics. The supply - demand side of styrene is still stronger than that of the upstream. In the medium and short term, attention should be paid to inventory pressure and the recovery of the demand side. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Price - The settlement price of Sinopec's PX in February was 7,385 yuan/ton, and the listed price was 7,650 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. Aromatic prices traded the cost - side increase brought by the US - Iran geopolitical conflict in the short term after the Spring Festival, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated at high levels. [5] Production and Devices - There were no changes in PX devices during the week, and the maintenance plans for the first and second quarters were gradually announced. The PX load was stable during the week. This week, the PX output was 771,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 93.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 82.51%, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The production enthusiasm of PX factories remained good, and the domestic and overseas operations were still at a high level. [5] Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic PTA output was 1.4152 million tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared with last week and an increase of 54,100 tons compared with the same period last year. During the cycle, the previously shut - down new - material devices restarted, and another device restarted after a short - term shutdown this week. The overall domestic output increased slightly during this cycle. [5] Spread - The report presents the trends of PX - N spread, PX - MX spread, crude oil - naphtha spread, and BZ - N spread over the years. [18] Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has fluctuated significantly recently. After reaching a relatively high level at the end of January driven by the cost side, it oscillated following the oil price. [6] Supply and Demand - In January, the national pure benzene output was 1.9464 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Overall, the demand side of pure benzene improved, and the supply - demand balance sheet showed a slight inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, with a slight actual inventory accumulation at the port. As of this week, the total commercial inventory of the Chinese pure benzene port samples was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 313,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. Compared with the inventory of 155,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 165,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 106.45%. [6] Devices - The report shows the trends of the ethylene international market, Chinese pure benzene load, pure benzene cost - profit situation, and Chinese ethylene production - demand situation. [31] Styrene Price - Recently, the main contract of styrene has continued to oscillate. In early February, it回调 following the cost side and the macro - commodity market, and then increased during the Spring Festival under the influence of cost - side geopolitics. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,740 yuan/ton, an increase from before. [7] Production and Devices - The overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 372,400 tons, an increase of 5,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 74.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. There were no new plans for starting or shutting down styrene devices this week. Most of the current shutdowns for maintenance are routine maintenance. [7] Inventory and Profit - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of the Jiangsu styrene port samples was 158,100 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 64.35%. The commercial inventory was 87,200 tons, an increase of 33,200 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 61.48%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, inventory accumulated during the festival. After the Spring Festival, the delivery of styrene to downstream enterprises is relatively large, and the arrival and warehousing may decrease. With the recovery and improvement of downstream output, the expectation of picking up goods has increased, and there is an expectation of a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu styrene port at the end of the month. The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China in this cycle was 419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 14.34%. On February 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China was 516 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a month - on - month increase of 9.27%; theoretically, the cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene devices was 6,924 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit was 816 yuan/ton. [7] Downstream - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) in China was 252,100 tons, a decrease of 8,300 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% (statistics up to the last week before the Spring Festival). After the Spring Festival, except for the decrease in the output of PS, the output of other products such as EPS, PS, and UPR increased, and the overall demand for styrene increased. [7]
芳烃市场周报:交投转淡,节间存累库预期(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20260213
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has been in a relatively strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand and positive news. Although the current profitability is good and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of support for further strengthening of the supply - demand side. The absolute price trend is mainly supported by strong crude oil. In the short term, pay attention to the price changes of aromatics and the shift of demand and the terminal to the off - season. It is expected that the tight pattern may continue during the maintenance season from March to May 2026, but the supply at home and abroad will return due to high profitability, which is more relaxed than before [3]. - For pure benzene, affected by the implementation of new production capacity, the overall environment is still bearish for its price. Although the supply - demand situation has improved, the high port inventory and high import volume are difficult to quickly reduce, and the supply - side pressure still exists. After the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase, and inventory may accumulate from March. If the cost - side support further weakens, the pure benzene - styrene industry chain may follow and then fluctuate [5]. - For styrene, the supply - demand structure has improved since November 2025. In 2026, the price has increased due to factors such as limited supply increase, port inventory reduction, and cost increase. In the short term, the planned maintenance will decrease, and the production is expected to remain high. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of downstream rigid demand [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PX Price - Previously, due to continuous geopolitical positive factors, the cost - side oil price rose, and the PX outer - market price increased continuously. The spot and futures prices fluctuated at a high level, and the basis widened continuously as the futures price rose rapidly. After the oil price回调 and then fluctuated, PX followed the cost - side changes. Sinopec's PX settlement price in January was 7340 yuan/ton, and the listed price in February was 7650 yuan/ton, a slight increase [3]. Supply - During the week, the reforming unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical restarted, and the PX load recovered. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou stopped for maintenance on November 25, 2025, and restarted on January 25, 2026, but no qualified products were produced. This week, the PX output was 758,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 91.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.78%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 80.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%. The production enthusiasm of PX factories remained good, and the domestic and overseas start - up rates were still at a high level [3]. Demand - This week, the domestic PTA output was 1.4639 million tons, an increase of 5,300 tons compared with last week and an increase of 63,700 tons compared with the same period last year. Sichuan Energy Investment restarted during the cycle, and there was no change in other devices. The overall domestic output increased slightly this cycle [3]. Outlook - In the short term, PX will be sorted at a high level, and the PX - BZ spread will slightly widen from a low level in the short term. There is an expectation that PX will be stronger than pure benzene during the maintenance season, and the processing spread may widen again after the Spring Festival, but there is still uncertainty on the cost side [3]. Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has fluctuated greatly recently. It continuously rose from around 5400 yuan/ton in early January, then fell sharply following the macro - market sentiment and the cost side in early February, and has fluctuated since then [5]. Supply and Demand - In December, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume of pure benzene in China in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. Overall, pure benzene has changed from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand side has improved. The restart of the Quanzhou supply device has increased the domestic supply of pure benzene after the Spring Festival [5]. Inventory - As of this week, the total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 297,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 296,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and an increase of 129,000 tons compared with the inventory of 168,000 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 76.79%. The port pick - up of pure benzene was active, and the inventory was basically the same as before [5]. Outlook - In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate. After the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase, and inventory may accumulate from March. Pay attention to the rhythm of production reduction and shutdown during the maintenance season. If the cost - side support further weakens, the pure benzene - styrene industry chain may follow and then fluctuate [5]. Styrene Price - Recently, the main contract of styrene has fluctuated after a decline. It followed the cost side and the macro - commodity market to回调 in early February. The current mainstream price in East China is 7605 yuan/ton, a decrease from before [6]. Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene units in China this cycle was 490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 19.69%. The weekly profit of non - integrated styrene units in China decreased, showing a downward trend. On February 12, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene units in China was 403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a month - on - month decrease of 4.01%. The theoretical cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene units is 6902 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit is 703 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 356,500 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 71.08%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. This week, the devices of Tianjin Bohua and Xinyang have restarted and produced products. There is a possibility of further output increase in the future. Coupled with the fact that the Sinochem Quanzhou device is likely to resume supply early next week, the overall supply will continue to increase compared with this week [6]. Demand - The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 260,400 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. During the week, the overall demand of the three major downstream factories increased slightly. While the demand for PS and ABS decreased slightly, the pre - festival stocking of EPS increased unexpectedly [6]. Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the total inventory of styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 96,200 tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 11.42%. The commercial inventory was 54,000 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 11.18%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the overall downstream demand is expected to decrease. Considering the changes in both supply and demand, styrene may accumulate inventory during the festival [6]. Outlook - In the short term, if the geopolitical risk does not further expand, styrene will remain relatively weak before the Spring Festival and fluctuate after a decline. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of downstream rigid demand. It is recommended to close the position at an appropriate time and pay attention to the cost - side changes during the festival [7].
芳烃市场周报:地缘局势紧张成本面支撑偏强(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20260130
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 14:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX has been in a relatively strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand, positive news, and rising cost - end prices. However, there is a lack of further support from the supply - demand side. The absolute price is mainly supported by strong crude oil. It is expected that the tight pattern may continue during the maintenance season from March to May 2026, but the supply will return, and the situation will ease compared to before. [6] - Pure benzene has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand side has improved. Although the high - import and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, the short - term market still has support. [7] - Styrene's performance in the traditional peak season in 2025 was not as expected. After November, the supply - demand structure improved. Recently, the spot and futures prices have increased significantly, but the fundamentals may weaken in the short term. The export in February still supports demand, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern has improved significantly compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Price - The ex - factory price of Sinopec's PX in January was significantly raised to 7,500 yuan/ton, and the settlement price in December was 7,020 yuan/ton. The PX futures price has been in high - level shock, and the basis has widened. [6] Supply - Zhejiang Petrochemical's reform was under maintenance for 15 - 20 days this week, and the PX load continued to decrease. Zhonghua Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX unit restarted this week but has not produced qualified products yet. This week's PX output was 743,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 89.87%, and the Asian weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 79.31%, both with a month - on - month increase of 0%. [6] Demand - The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate this week was 75.83%, remaining flat month - on - month and down 4.60% year - on - year. The domestic PTA capacity utilization rate remained stable this week. [6] Strategy - In the short term, PX is in high - level consolidation. The PX - BZ spread has continuously narrowed since the beginning of the year. One can choose the opportunity to take profit. [6] Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has risen significantly recently, from around 5,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of January. It has continuously increased with the rise in oil prices and the improvement in downstream demand. [7] Supply and Demand - In December, the national pure benzene output was 1.9228 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The supply - demand situation has shifted from oversupply to undersupply. [7] Inventory - As of this week, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in China was 323,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 139.26%. [7] Strategy - If the geopolitical situation on the cost side eases, one can consider taking profit by narrowing the PX - BZ spread. If the pure benzene - styrene spread further rises, one can choose the opportunity to narrow the processing spread. [7] Styrene Price - The recent increase in the main styrene contract is mainly due to the increase in the cost side and the external price of aromatics, as well as the positive impact of the chemical industry sector. The current mainstream price in East China is 8,050 yuan/ton, up from before. [8] Profit - The average profit of China's non - integrated styrene units this week was 713 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 272 yuan/ton, or 61.65%. The daily profit on January 29 was 758 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The theoretical cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene units is 6,992 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit is 1,058 yuan/ton. [8] Supply - China's total styrene output was 347,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 tons, or 0.52%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%. The overall supply is expected to continue to increase. [8] Demand - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 270,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons, or 1.2%. The overall demand of the three major downstream factories increased slightly. [8] Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 155,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.06%. It is expected that the inventory may continue to accumulate slightly next week. [8] Strategy - One can pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the spread at a high level, which was continuously widened by the continuous rise of pure benzene. [9]
芳烃市场周报:地缘溢价回吐,不确定性尚存(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20260116
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 10:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Since the fourth quarter, PX has been supported by improved downstream demand. Although it is currently profitable and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further upward momentum. In 2026, new PX projects may be implemented after the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand gap is expected to ease before the maintenance season [5]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by the new production capacity, the domestic supply has increased significantly, and the high - import and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. Recently, due to geopolitical uncertainties, the futures and spot prices have risen. In the short term, the market will follow the cost increase and then decline, and it will stabilize at a low level [7]. - Styrene: After the National Day in 2025, styrene was in a wide supply - demand balance. After multiple plant overhauls, the supply - demand gradually shifted to a tight balance. Since December 2025, the futures and spot prices have risen significantly. In the short term, the market is still trading on the strengthening of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern has improved significantly, but there may be certain negative factors in the future [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: Previously, due to geopolitical factors, the price of PX increased. Recently, with the easing of geopolitical tensions, the price has fallen from a high level. Sinopec raised the January PX listing price to 7,500 yuan/ton, compared with the December settlement price of 7,020 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Fuhai Chuang plans to overhaul its 160 - million - ton device for three months in the second quarter and expand its capacity to 200 million tons. Zhonghua Quanzhou's 80 - million - ton PX device has been under maintenance since November 25. This week, PX production was 76.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66% [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.72%. This week, the overall domestic PTA capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [5]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The futures price of pure benzene has increased significantly, and the East China price has risen to 5,535 yuan/ton. Since December 2025, the increase has been less than that of other aromatic hydrocarbon varieties. The recent price increase is mainly due to the rise in oil prices and geopolitical news [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In December 2025, the national pure benzene production was 1.9228 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.28%. The estimated import volume in December was 470,000 tons, remaining at a high level. Currently, the supply - demand situation has shifted from oversupply to undersupply, and the demand has improved [7]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in China was 344,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The pressure of concentrated imports has eased, and the import volume has decreased significantly [7]. - **Profit**: Due to insufficient terminal demand, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol among the five major downstream products of pure benzene are still at a loss. The profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline are acceptable [7]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures Performance**: Recently, the main styrene contract has increased significantly, mainly affected by cost changes and the increase in external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,235 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was 303 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 121.30%. On January 15, the daily profit was 372 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 13.46% [8]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week, the total production of styrene plants in China was 355,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 70.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. Zhonghua Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua are under maintenance [8]. - **Downstream**: The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 267,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. The overall demand of the three major downstream plants has increased slightly, mainly due to the gradual recovery of EPS plant demand [8]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of the main styrene storage areas in South China was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.77%. The port inventory has decreased this week [8].
纯苯、苯乙烯日报:装置扰动下供需分化,芳烃延续震荡-20251231
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 10:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remains oversupplied, with high port inventories exerting continuous downward pressure on prices. Import volumes are relatively high, and there is insufficient short - term de - stocking momentum. Supply - side operations are stable, and the cost side provides limited support. Demand is weak, and overall, the short - term fundamentals are loose, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - Styrene: After the restart of some devices and the impact of device failures, production and capacity utilization have increased. Downstream demand has improved, but the de - stocking of visible inventories has slowed. Non - integrated devices' losses have narrowed, and integrated devices are still profitable. Short - term supply is expected to be stable, and due to temporary device disruptions, short - term supply and demand remain tight, with inventories likely to decline slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On December 30, the styrene main contract closed up 0.65% at 6,781 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.33% at 5,487 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On December 30, Brent crude closed at $58.1/barrel (+$1.4/barrel), WTI crude closed at $61.9/barrel (+$1.3/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's East China port inventory was 27.30 million tons (+1.30 million tons), remaining at a high level. Styrene's East China port inventory was 13.93 million tons (+0.46 million tons), and its East China commercial inventory was 8.46 million tons (+0.23 million tons), entering the inventory rebuilding stage [2]. - **Supply**: The pure benzene main basis was - 134 yuan/ton, and processing fees in CFR China and FOB South Korea rebounded slightly. The styrene device load rebounded from a low level, with an overall operating rate of 69.1% (+0.8 percentage points), and non - integrated devices were still in the loss range [2]. - **Demand**: Pure benzene's downstream sectors strengthened overall, while styrene's downstream entered the off - season. EPS and ABS operating rates fluctuated slightly, and PS operating rate increased, but the production profit of hard plastics was continuously compressed, and finished - product inventory pressure remained [3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure benzene**: The domestic market is supply - abundant, with high port inventories suppressing prices. Import arrivals are high, and short - term de - stocking is difficult. Supply - side devices operate stably, and cost support is limited. Demand is weak, and short - term prices will fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Styrene**: After device restarts and failures, production and capacity utilization increased. Downstream demand improved, but visible inventory de - stocking slowed. Non - integrated device losses narrowed, and short - term supply is expected to be stable. Due to device disruptions, short - term supply and demand are tight, and inventories may decline slowly [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The styrene futures main contract rose 0.65%, and the pure benzene futures main contract rose 0.33%. Brent crude rose 2.36%, and WTI crude rose 2.21% [2][6]. - **Production and Inventory**: China's styrene production increased by 2.26% to 35.5 million tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 0.07% to 43.6 million tons. Styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.41% to 13.9 million tons, and pure benzene's national port inventory increased by 5.00% to 27.3 million tons [7]. - **Operating Rate**: Among pure benzene's downstream sectors, styrene's operating rate increased by 1.57 percentage points to 70.7%, and among styrene's downstream sectors, PS's operating rate increased by 4.00 percentage points to 59.4% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Russia claimed to have carried out large - scale strikes on Ukraine. - The Palestinian economy remained in deep recession this year. - Venezuela's port refineries were operating normally. - Russia extended the ban on gasoline exports until the end of February 2026. - The Iraqi military will take over the Assad Air Base in a few days [9].
库存高位叠加淡季,芳烃震荡整理
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 08:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with high inventory, weak demand, and limited external support [4] - Styrene will also maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, facing issues such as slow inventory reduction, increased supply, and weak demand in the off - season [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On December 22, the styrene main contract rose 2.16% to 6,540 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract rose 1.21% to 5,459 yuan/ton. Brent crude closed at $56.5/barrel (+$0.5/barrel), WTI at $60.5/barrel (+$0.6/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was quoted at 5,315 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene's East China port and factory inventories decreased, but the de - stocking slope slowed. Pure benzene's East China port inventory remained at a high level with no obvious de - stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene's supply marginally increased with a 0.84 - percentage - point rise in the national operating rate. Pure benzene's overall supply was high but marginally weakened, with a 0.17 - percentage - point drop in the domestic operating rate and a 3.05 - percentage - point rise in the hydro - benzene operating rate [2] - **Demand**: Styrene's downstream entered the off - season, with the operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS falling. Non - styrene downstream's CPL, phenol, and aniline operating rates also declined [3] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: High inventory persists, overseas support weakens, supply slightly reduces, and demand is weak. It will be range - bound in the short term [4] - **Styrene**: Inventory de - stocking slows, supply increases, demand is in the off - season, and market sentiment is cautious. It will also be range - bound in the short term [4] 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures rose 2.16%, and spot fell 1.19%. Pure benzene futures rose 1.21%, and East China spot rose 0.66%. Brent crude rose 0.93%, and WTI rose 1.09%. Naphtha fell 0.04% [6] - **Output and Inventory**: China's styrene output increased 2.32%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.70%. Styrene's port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene's port inventory increased 36.59% [7] - **Operating Rate**: Styrene's downstream EPS and PS operating rates increased, while ABS decreased. Pure benzene's downstream caprolactam operating rate decreased, while phenol and aniline were relatively stable [8] 3. Industry News - European Central Bank President Lagarde said inflation outlook uncertainty is higher than usual [9] - US November core CPI year - on - year growth was 2.6%, the lowest since 2021 [9] - US initial jobless claims last week were 224,000, lower than expected [9] - Fed's Goolsbee said there is room to cut interest rates if inflation returns to 2% [9] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on prices, output, inventory, and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [12][21]
芳烃市场周报:成本端弱势延续,调油仍有驱动(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20251121
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 07:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: Despite a relatively strong supply - demand situation due to continuous inventory reduction, the PX market failed to meet the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - season expectations. However, with improved downstream demand in November, positive news on Sino - US tariffs, and planned supply cuts, PX processing fees and absolute prices are expected to remain strong, but cost - side support needs attention [6]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by new production capacity and overseas oversupply, the price is under pressure. But with the current low - price level and downstream rigid demand support, the downside is limited. The market is trading on the expectation of export of blending oils to the US, and the overall market sentiment is positive [7]. - Styrene: After multiple small increases followed by rapid declines since the third quarter, the styrene market has generally shown a downward trend. Recently, due to plant shutdowns and inventory reduction, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the futures price has rebounded. Future performance depends on consumption policies and macro news [9]. 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Price**: The current international oil price is oscillating at a low level with weak support. The naphtha price is 573 US dollars, and the PX CFR price is 832 US dollars. Sinopec raised the November PX listed price slightly to 6800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Production and Devices**: This week's PX output was 74.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization was 89.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%. Some devices had maintenance and malfunctions, but the production enthusiasm of PX factories remained high [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream PTA capacity utilization was 74.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74%. The PX market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Pure Benzene - **Spot and Futures**: The main pure - benzene contract 2603 has been declining continuously since mid - September and rebounded slightly recently. The basis between the futures and the East China spot has widened [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week's output was 44.67 tons, a decrease of 0.76 tons from last week. The capacity utilization was 76.67%, a decrease of 1.31% from last week. There is an oversupply situation, with many downstream styrene factories under maintenance [7]. - **Inventory**: The commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 14.7 tons, a significant increase of 3.4 tons from the previous period due to a large number of imported goods arriving at the port [7]. - **Profit**: Except for aniline and caprolactam, the five major downstream industries of pure benzene are still operating at a loss. However, it is expected that the profits of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, and caprolactam will increase or be repaired in the future [7]. Styrene - **Spot and Futures**: The main styrene contract rebounded this week due to improved fundamentals and higher raw material prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 6615 yuan/ton, and the port inventory has been continuously decreasing [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 305 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 32.43% [8]. - **Industrial Chain Capacity Utilization**: The total output of Chinese styrene factories was 34.29 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous period. The capacity utilization was 68.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The supply is lower than demand, but the market sentiment remains cautious [8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 14.83 tons, a decrease of 2.65 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 15.16%. The market is in a tight - balance state [8].
芳烃市场周报:现货需求不佳,成本端反弹(PX,纯苯,苯乙烯)-20251024
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX market: Despite strong fundamentals due to continuous inventory reduction, it shows a "weak peak season" characteristic. In the short - term, cost rebound and geopolitical uncertainties provide some support. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an expectation of tightened supply in November and a possibility of PXN repair. If there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts, PX processing fees and absolute prices will likely remain low, with limited room for further decline [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new capacity and overseas supply surplus, the overall environment is bearish for prices. In the short - term, further decline is limited due to low prices and downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an oversupply expectation and persistent supply - demand contradictions [4]. - Styrene market: It is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern. Although downstream demand has improved compared to the off - season, the low - profit situation of styrene devices is expected to continue, and prices will likely fluctuate at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Price - International oil prices rebounded slightly from a low level. The current price of naphtha is $573, and the PX CFR price is $812. Sinopec's PX listed price in October is 6,800 yuan/ton, while the settlement price in September was 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Production and Devices - Domestic PX output was 724,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 86.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%. Some devices such as Urumqi Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua are under maintenance and are planned to restart in late October or early November [3]. Supply and Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%. PX is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand during the peak season [3]. Spread - The report presents historical data on spreads such as PX - N, PX - MX, crude oil - naphtha, and BZ - N [16]. Pure Benzene Spot and Futures - The main pure benzene contract 2603 has been declining since mid - September and rebounded slightly this week following cost - side positive factors. The basis between the futures and the East China spot has narrowed and remained stable [4]. Supply and Demand - In September 2025, the estimated monthly output was 1.932 million tons, the import volume was 440,000 tons, and the total supply was 2.712 million tons, while the total demand was 2.593 million tons. Supply and demand both decreased, with supply exceeding demand [4]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 99,000 tons, a 10% week - on - week increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [4]. Profit - Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in a loss - making state, while aniline still has profits and the profit margin has slightly expanded [4]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The main styrene contract has been weakly oscillating, continuing the downward trend since mid - September. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,585 yuan/ton, lower than before [5]. Industrial Chain Profit - The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China this week was - 556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 9.44% [5]. Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.65%. The capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% [5]. Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was less than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to mid - May. EPS demand has increased significantly after the National Day holiday, ABS demand has increased slightly, and PS demand has decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 202,500 tons, a 3.05% increase from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 122,500 tons, a 0.82% increase from the previous period. It is expected that port inventory will decrease slightly in the future [5].
对二甲苯:下方空间有限,PTA:下方空间有限,MEG:需求预期好转,短期有反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PX has limited downside space, and it is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. The supply and demand of PX are slightly tight [1][8][9]. - PTA has limited downside space, with demand expected to improve marginally. It is a volatile market, and short positions should be reduced [1][9]. - MEG has a better demand expectation and may rebound in the short - term. Short positions should be reduced [1][10]. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous trading day were 6332, 4414, 4004, 6070, and 437.7 respectively, with daily changes of 64, 30, 1, 42, and 1.9, and daily change rates of 1.02%, 0.68%, 0.02%, 0.70%, and 0.44% respectively. The month - spreads of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous trading day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $784.33/ton, 4325 yuan/ton, 4090 yuan/ton, $540/ton, and $61.09/barrel respectively, with corresponding price changes [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee**: The previous trading day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were $246.17/ton, 144.83 yuan/ton, 380.77 yuan/ton, 154.12 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with corresponding changes [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The naphtha price was stagnant at the end of the session. PX price was also stagnant, with no transactions in the negotiations. The PX price was estimated at $784/ton CFR, up $1 from last Friday. Some market participants believe that the price increase is driven by sentiment or a natural rebound. The operating rate of Chinese PX factories decreased from about 87.5% to about 85% in the week ending October 17. Market participants suggest reducing PX production due to low PTA activity [2][3][5]. - **Toluene and Mixed Xylene**: In the week ending October 17, the prices of toluene and mixed xylene increased slightly. Refinery shutdowns and supply limitations continued to support the market. The overall tightness is expected to last until the end of October [5]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with a weak spot basis [7]. - **MEG**: From October 20 to October 26, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Shanghai ports were about 17,000 tons, 36,000 tons, and 0 tons respectively, and the planned arrival quantity at some main ports was about 53,000 tons [7]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an estimated average sales rate of 160 - 170% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 66% by 3:00 pm [8]. Trends and Suggestions - **PX**: It is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. Pay attention to the impact of Yulong Petrochemical's possible reduction in CDU load on aromatic hydrocarbon production. PX supply and demand are slightly tight, and oil prices have recovered recently [8][9]. - **PTA**: Demand is expected to improve marginally, and it is a volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning of Xin凤鸣's new PTA device and the progress of India's new PTA device GAIL. The profit of the polyester sector has recovered, and overall consumption in the industry chain is expected to improve [9]. - **MEG**: Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning and maintenance of relevant devices and the possible planned - out maintenance of coal - based devices due to coal price changes [10].