Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In November 2025, iron ore demand is expected to decline, but the decline may not be significant. The supply side is likely to follow the demand and experience a slight decline. Steel demand has some resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be a short - term behavior. With the market starting to focus on steel mills' restocking expectations for iron ore in November, there is support at the lower end of iron ore prices. Therefore, iron ore prices may show a trend of bottom - finding and then rebounding in November [3][24][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In October 2025, iron ore prices fluctuated and declined but remained in the high - level oscillation range since July. Before the National Day, steel prices started to decline. Steel demand was weak, while production was high. Market funds mainly aimed to short steel mill profits, and iron ore prices were relatively strong. Driven by policies, there is an expectation of a decline in steel mill supply in the far - month, and steel spot profits are constantly compressed. The market anticipates steel mill production cuts, causing raw material prices to fluctuate under the pressure of negative feedback expectations. High steel production drives strong iron ore demand, with active iron ore shipments. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand and is affected by steel inventory accumulation, resulting in high - level oscillations [3][5][25]. Supply - Iron ore supply was at a relatively high level in October. In August, monthly iron ore imports reached 105.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. Low - cost iron ore from Simandou is expected to start increasing production at the end of 2025, with an annual production capacity gradually rising by 30 million tons, having little impact on 2025 supply but increasing long - term supply expectations. High - cost iron ore supply decreased significantly throughout the year, but it can be quickly released if future demand is strong. High - frequency data shows that iron ore supply increased significantly in October but not year - on - year. Facing the seasonal off - season, high - level iron ore supply may decline with the decrease in hot metal production. If supply remains strong, it will put pressure on iron ore prices [3][8][25]. Demand - In October, hot metal production oscillated at a high level, remaining above 2.4 million tons per day, stronger than expected. As steel is at the end of the seasonal peak season, rebar production capacity has declined, but plate supply is at a high level, supporting hot metal production. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand, and prices are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to whether the weak steel demand can be transmitted to the iron ore market. High hot metal production has led to continuous inventory depletion, and port inventory has been decreasing. The inventory depletion in July was mainly due to strong demand. Before July, the market was pessimistic about iron ore, and strong demand was not reflected. As market sentiment improved, iron ore prices rebounded to correct the pessimistic expectations [3][16][26]. Terminal Demand - Real estate demand continues to decline. In August, real estate data showed that the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area was 20%, and real estate sales were also lackluster. Building material demand is expected to remain weak, dragging down overall demand. Despite continuous policy mentions of stabilizing economic development, real estate and traditional infrastructure are unlikely to regain strength. After the implementation of the anti - involution policy, steel production has remained high. Although rebar production shows signs of reduction, plate production is still high, and steel inventory pressure is significant. It is expected that steel production capacity will gradually decline, putting pressure on iron ore demand [19][21]. Summary and Outlook - The situation in October and the analysis of supply, demand, and terminal demand are similar to the above - mentioned content. Overall, in November, iron ore demand is expected to decline slightly, and supply may also decline slightly. Steel demand has resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be short - term. With the market's focus on restocking expectations, iron ore prices may bottom out and then rebound [3][24][26].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - With the Fed's rate - cut decision made and macro - disturbances significantly reduced, the market's focus is expected to shift to real - world trading. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing. Although pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended, hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure for continuous inventory accumulation is low. Therefore, iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price will fluctuate within a range, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased on a month - on - month basis. Australian shipments have dropped significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the average in the past five weeks is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. In this period, blast furnace steel mills have continued to resume production, mainly due to the normal resumption after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang regions. Domestic demand is higher than the average level in August (240.5). The daily average hot metal output in this period is 242.36 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.34). As the production cost of steel mills rises and the price of finished products weakens, the blast furnace profit has declined from a high level and is approaching the break - even point. The profitability rate of steel mills continues to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand has basically ended. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level of steel mills has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume in this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to the high domestic demand and the insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure for inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - based operation and covered call options [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Not provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is 105.60, with a daily change of -0.30 and a weekly change of -1.45 [3] - For Australian mainstream ores, Newman powder is 789, down 4 from the previous day and up 2 for the week; PB powder is 792, down 3 and up 2; Mac powder is 780, down 4 and up 3; etc [3] - For Brazilian mainstream ores, the price of Bahun is 821, down 1 and up 9 for the week; the price of Bacu IOC6 is 796, down 3 and up 1; etc [3] - The price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 1002, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 for the week [3] Forward Market - For DCE contracts, i2601 is 800.0, down 4.5 and up 4.5 for the week; i2605 is 778.5, down 4.0 and up 5.0; i2509 is 759.0, down 4.5 and down 81.5 [3] - For SGX contracts, FE01 is 103.26, up 0.02 and down 0.03 for the week; FE05 is 101.24, up 0.10 and up 0.39; FE09 is 105.45, down 0.27 and down 0.92 [3] Basis/Internal and External Market Spreads - For example, the basis of Newman powder is -29.35, and the internal and external market spread of i2601 is 36.3, up 3.4 from the previous day and up 5.2 for the week [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced. Short - term interval operation is recommended. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore runs in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The rebound of foreign ore shipments exceeds expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reach a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support on the supply side is weakening [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable, while the short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction situation in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has continued to increase month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in the arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and the molten iron output remains high, it is expected that the inventory will generally tend to be stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. In the short - term, iron ore is expected to run with a slightly bullish bias. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. The spot is in the bottom - rebound stage. It is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The spot fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1]. - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indices all increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.5% [1]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 3.0% to 7191.0 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 3.9% to 8318.0 million tons [1]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons compared to Monday (weekly). The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 0.74%, and the 09 basis increased by 11. The coke 01 contract decreased by 0.54%, and the 01 basis increased by 9. The J09 - J01 spread decreased by 3 [2]. Supply - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.0% to 931.0 million tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84% to 93.1 million tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% to 637.8 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 4.7% to 200.1 million tons [2]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 0.9%, and the 09 basis increased by 14. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 0.2%, and the 01 basis increased by 7. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased by 7 [2]. Supply - The raw coal output increased by 0.34% to 868 million tons, and the clean - coal output increased by 0.3% to 443.5 million tons [2]. Demand - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5% to 176.4 million tons. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 5.2% to 892.4 million tons, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% to 782.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 5.74% to 321.6 million tons [2].