晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：需求超预期增加 短期高位震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 供应方面：外矿发运环比回落，其中澳洲发运回落显著，巴西发运小幅回落，澳巴近五周 均值发运小幅低于去年同期。到港量环同比增加，近五周均值高于去年同期。整体看，供给端 支撑力度持续减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求持续高位，支撑铁矿石价格。本期高炉钢厂延续复产，主要为前期的 河北、新疆区域高炉检修结束后常规复产，国内需求高于 8 月份平均水平（240.5），本期日均 铁水产量 242.36 万吨（环比+1.34），随着钢厂生产成本走高以及成材价格走弱，高炉利润高 位回落后趋近盈亏平衡水平，钢厂盈利率延续下滑趋势，节前补库需求基本结束，整体看，高 铁水支撑铁矿石价格。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端日耗随着多地区复产延续增加态势，钢厂库存水平环同比增加，节前补 库力度高于去年同期，预计节前补库基本结束；今年补库周期节奏提前，本期疏港量环比回落， ...

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/9/19 | | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 105.60 | -0.30 | -1.45 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 789 | -4 | 2 | | 844.4 | 103.10 | -0.45 | -0.25 | -29.35 | | | | PB粉 | 792 | -3 | 2 | | 840.4 | 105.75 | -0.50 | -0.15 | -10.48 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 780 | -4 | 3 | | 851.9 | 102.00 | -0.30 | -0.15 | -5.47 | | | | 金布巴 | 763 | -3 | 5 | | 857.0 | 99.40 | -0.70 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：供给增速超预期 短期矿价承压 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 2025 年 8 月 19 日 逻辑：昨日黑色系整体走弱，宏观面扰动减弱，市场交投重心回归产业基本面，成材端表 需偏弱、碳元素盘面估值回归，铁矿石供需矛盾趋弱，当前高炉高利润高位回落以及短流程谷 电再度陷入亏损，预计短期铁矿石需求韧性较强但增量空间受限，铁矿石供给端回升超预期对 盘面也形成一定抑制，价格整体跟随板块走势。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运回升幅度超预期，其中澳洲稳中有增，巴西发运创出历史高值，非主 流连续三周上升并创出历史同期高值；到港量处于中位偏高水平但整体趋于上升，供给端支撑 边际减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内日均铁水量结束连续三周回落并小幅回升，本期日均铁水产量 240.66（环 比+0.34），当前钢厂盈利率水平高位且高炉利润水平相对可观，短流程再度陷入全面亏损， 短期铁矿石需求仍保持韧性，国内高需求对价格形成较强支撑，后期需关注铁水能否维持高位 上升态势以及华北地区阅兵限产动向。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端进口矿日耗保持高位，钢厂端库存环比持续上升且已高于去 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. In the short - term, iron ore is expected to run with a slightly bullish bias. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. The spot is in the bottom - rebound stage. It is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The spot fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1]. - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indices all increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.5% [1]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 3.0% to 7191.0 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 3.9% to 8318.0 million tons [1]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons compared to Monday (weekly). The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 0.74%, and the 09 basis increased by 11. The coke 01 contract decreased by 0.54%, and the 01 basis increased by 9. The J09 - J01 spread decreased by 3 [2]. Supply - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.0% to 931.0 million tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84% to 93.1 million tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% to 637.8 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 4.7% to 200.1 million tons [2]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 0.9%, and the 09 basis increased by 14. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 0.2%, and the 01 basis increased by 7. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased by 7 [2]. Supply - The raw coal output increased by 0.34% to 868 million tons, and the clean - coal output increased by 0.3% to 443.5 million tons [2]. Demand - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5% to 176.4 million tons. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 5.2% to 892.4 million tons, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% to 782.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 5.74% to 321.6 million tons [2].