铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：现实需求支撑仍存，矿价偏高位震荡 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 全球发货量 | 当周值 3324 | 8 | 比 环 -248 | 3 | 比 同 50 9 | | 全球发货 | 38W2025 116720 | 7 | 38W2024 115837 5 | 累计同比 883 | 2 | 0 | 累计同比% 8% | | | 巴发货量 | 836 | 3 | -33 | 0 | -7 7 | | 巴发货 | . 28304 8 | | . 28357 9 | -53 | . ...

公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 铁矿石供需两端均有所走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗高位回落，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗双双下 降，且短期限产扰动发酵，叠加钢厂利润在收缩，矿石需求料将下行，前期支撑矿价主逻辑有所变化。与此同时，国内港口 矿石到货再度回落，且海外矿商发运也是高位下行，按船期推算后续澳巴到货量将回升，海外矿石供应维持高位，但内矿供 应相对受限，整体呈现平稳运行态势。总之，矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但钢厂利润收缩叠加限产扰动，利好效应 在趋弱，相应的供应高位平稳运行，矿石基本面变化不大，预计高估值矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注钢价表现情况。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,763.02 -82.18 13,657.90 105.12 15,372.38 -1,609.36 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,007.19 -58.28 9,012.09 -4.90 8,996.47 10.72 45港铁矿石到货量 2,393.30 -83.30 2,240.50 152.80 2,5 ...

品种观点参考 - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight downward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5 [2] - The core logic is that both supply and demand are weak, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. The number of steel mill inspections has increased, and the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously decreasing. The demand in the off - season has weakened as expected. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the reduction space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at ports has significantly increased, but the shipping volume of miners has continued to be weak. According to the shipping schedule, it is difficult to have a continuous increase in subsequent arrivals. Overseas ore supply remains at a low level, and domestic ore production has also weakened, resulting in a contraction in supply [3] - Currently, the optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the ore price to remain at a high level. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level, with the upward driving force weakening. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating and consolidating state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of finished products [3]

行 业 研 究 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Authors] 分析师： 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 2025年4月30日 [Table_Title] 需求接近顶部，铁矿石存在补跌可能 [table_main] 投资要点： 海 策 略 黑 色 金 属 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 6 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 [Table_Report] | 1. 策略概述 3 | | --- | | 2. 铁水高产量或不可持续 3 | | 3. 二季度供应有回升预期 3 | | 4. 5 月铁矿石库存拐点或出现 4 | | 5. 风险因素 5 | | 6. 结论及投资建议 5 | | 图 | 1 铁水日产量季节性走势 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2 螺纹钢即期 ...