铁矿石周度报告 ◼ 逻辑：铁矿石供需宽松，驱动05合约下跌至靠近90美元/吨的成本支撑，进一步下跌需要钢材需求证伪，当前时间窗口并未到来。沪七条提振了房地 产预期，以及"两会" 临近。低估值叠加政策驱动，矿石价格预计小幅反弹。 ◼ 供给：主流和非主流发运同比均在回升，叠加海漂加快到港，矿石供给同比显著增加； ◼ 需求：钢厂利润低位，叠加两会前后北方可能限产，铁水复产高度有限。需求预期平平，钢厂投机补库强度不高； ◼ 库存：港口库存高位继续累库，在需求预期偏弱背景下，预计钢厂不会超额补库，累库集中在贸易环节； ◼ 风险事件：2025年中国从伊朗进口铁矿石570万吨，占全年总进口量0.45%。 极端情况下，即便伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，波斯湾沿岸的阿联酋和沙特 出口中国的铁矿石量也很低，整体影响小。 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿石周度观点：低估值强预期，矿价小幅反弹 | | | 当周值 | | 上周值 | | | 去年同期值 | 环 | ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: "Supply and Demand Loose, Futures Market Weakly Operated - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20260210" [2] - **Report Author**: Zhou Guisheng [4] - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Currently, iron ore supply and demand are loose, and it will maintain a weak shock in the short - term. The overall supply has declined, the demand is weak due to poor steel mill profits, and the port and steel mill inventories have increased [5][6] Supply - Global iron ore shipments from February 2nd - 8th were 25.353 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.593 million tons. Australian shipments were 12.798 million tons, down 5.406 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 6.388 million tons, down 0.534 million tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 9.907 million tons, down 0.727 million tons [5] - China's 45 - port arrivals were 23.613 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.234 million tons [5] - As of February 6th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 456,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 58.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%. Mine concentrate inventory was 799,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,500 tons [5] - The shipping volume of Australian ore to China decreased significantly, and Brazilian ore shipments also declined. FMG and BHP shipments to China continued to fall, RT shipments to China dropped significantly, and VALE shipments decreased slightly [40][44][48] - The shipping price index decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly, remaining at a medium level [52][56] Demand - In the week of February 6th, the daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 million tons. Terminal demand was weak, steel mill profits were poor, and pig iron production remained relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mill restocking was basically over, and raw material procurement slowed down [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits increased slightly, blast furnace operation changed little, and pig iron production remained stable [65][71] Inventory - Imported ore inventory continued to rise this period, the number of ships at the port increased by 5 to 111. Port congestion increased, arrival volume continued to decline, port clearance volume continued to rise, and port inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing the upward space of ore prices. Steel mill inventory also continued to increase, and steel mill restocking was basically over as the Spring Festival approached [5] - The clearance volume continued to rise, port inventory continued to increase, Australian ore inventory continued to rise, Brazilian ore inventory decreased slightly, coarse powder inventory remained high, and lump ore inventory decreased slightly [80][84][94] Price and Spread - Spot prices decreased slightly, the spread between high - and medium - grade ores remained stable, the spread between medium - and low - grade ores increased slightly, the spread between PB powder and Mac powder remained stable, the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated at a low level, and the 05 basis decreased slightly [7][13][16][20] - As of February 9, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 863, a week - on - week decrease of 19, and the equivalent futures price was 807, a week - on - week decrease of 20; the spot price of PB powder was 763, a week - on - week decrease of 19, and the equivalent futures price was 810, a week - on - week decrease of 21; the spot price of Super Special powder was 650, a week - on - week decrease of 21, and the equivalent futures price was 849, a week - on - week decrease of 23; the high - medium grade spread was 100, and the medium - low grade spread was 113. The optimal deliverable product was 62.5 BHP Blend [29] - The rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased slightly, and the iron - ore - to - coke ratio decreased slightly [30] Strategy - The strategy is range - bound trading [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, demand expectations are weakening, and iron ore prices are under pressure [3] - Mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore shipments are both rising, and with the faster arrival of floating cargoes, the supply of iron ore has significantly increased [5] - Hot metal production has remained stable, with little fluctuation in rigid demand, but the steel mill's winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, leading to weaker demand expectations [5] - In a situation of both increasing supply and demand, the faster arrival of floating cargoes has caused the iron ore port inventory to continue to rise [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 761 (-29) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 760.5 (-31) yuan/ton [10] - The basis of the 05 contract was 33 (+1) yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was 18 (-1) yuan/ton [10] - The prices of various types of imported ores and iron concentrates in Rizhao Port have declined this week compared to last week [12] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream iron ore remains at a high level, and the cumulative year - on - year difference is significantly higher than that of last year [14][16] - The four major mines maintain normal shipping levels [18] - The domestic iron ore production is stable [29] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The steel mill's replenishment is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [31][32] - There are differences in the demand for different iron ore varieties [34] - Scrap steel has a substitution effect on iron ore [36] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The faster arrival of floating cargoes has led to increased supply and rapid inventory accumulation [38] - The inventory of Australian iron ore has increased significantly [39] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Rising oil prices have led to an increase in shipping costs [41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment is weak, and iron ore is oscillating weakly. The overall supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level, but there are signs of a decline under high inventory pressure. The port and steel mill inventories have increased, and the iron ore supply - demand pressure will increase. The iron ore with weak supply - demand fundamentals will continue to weaken, and the short - term recommendation is to participate with a short - bias [10][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1走势回顾 (Trend Review) - **Iron Ore Futures Main Contract Trend**: The market sentiment is weak, and iron ore is oscillating weakly [10]. - **Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of different types of iron ore powder are provided. For example, PB powder is 768, and its previous price was 804; Super Special powder is 652, and its previous price was 851, etc. [14]. 3.2基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Spread Trend**: The main contract basis is 3.5, 05 - 09 spread is 17.5, pb - super special spread is 116, and barite - pb spread is - 20 [21]. - **Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore strengthened slightly at a low level [22]. 3.3供需分析 (Supply - Demand Analysis) - **Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1,855.4 tons, a slight week - on - week increase, and the supply is at a relatively high level. The domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease. There is a sign of supply decline under high inventory pressure [28]. - **International Ocean Freight**: The iron ore freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 8.3 US dollars/ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.21 US dollars/ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1936 [31]. - **Imported Iron Ore Inventory**: The port inventory is 17,140.71 tons, Australian ore inventory is 7,903.27 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5,536.43 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2,269.4 tons, and trading ore inventory is 11,316.72 tons [34]. - **Steel Mill Iron Ore Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 118.45 tons week - on - week to 17,140.71 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased by 348.05 tons week - on - week to 10,316.64 tons. The available days for steel mills' imported iron ore increased by 4 days to 31 days. After the pre - Spring Festival active restocking, the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase [38]. - **Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average pig iron production this week was 228.58 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. The pig iron production rebounded slightly but with limited strength. The port clearance volume increased significantly week - on - week, and the steel mills' restocking of iron ore is basically in place [41]. 3.4后市展望 (Outlook) - The iron ore will continue to be weak due to weakening market sentiment and its own weak supply - demand fundamentals. The short - term operation suggestion is to participate with a short - bias [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - **Export Analysis**: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]

Report Title - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20251124: Molten Iron Drops Slightly, Futures Market Fluctuates [2] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng, with qualification certificate F3036194 and investment consulting certificate Z0015986 [3] Core Viewpoints - Currently, iron ore supply is relatively abundant, while molten iron production on the demand side drops slightly but remains at a relatively high - medium level. Later, molten iron production will decline seasonally, and the steel mills' winter - storage restocking demand has not been released. In the short term, the market will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] Supply Analysis - From November 17th to November 23rd, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 million tons. Australian shipments were 1.8396 billion tons, down 2.713 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian shipments were 797.8 million tons, down 604,000 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports reached 2.8171 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 548,200 tons [4] - As of November 21st, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 475,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.79%, up 0.03% week - on - week. The mine concentrate inventory was 758,500 tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week [4] - Global shipments decreased slightly week - on - week, with both Australian and Brazilian ores showing a decline. The arrival volume stopped falling and rebounded, and domestic ore production fluctuated slightly. Overall, the supply was relatively abundant [5] Demand Analysis - In the week of November 21st, the daily average molten iron output was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. Although the molten iron output dropped slightly and remained at a relatively high - medium level, with the continuous decline of steel mill profitability, the molten iron output will show a seasonal weakening trend later [4] - Steel mill profitability has declined, and the price of imported iron ore fluctuates in the range of $100 - $105 per ton [4] Inventory Analysis - The inventory of imported ore decreased slightly this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 4 to 120. The port congestion increased slightly, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the winter - storage restocking demand has not started yet. The overall inventory was relatively stable [4] - Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking demand later [5] Price and Spread Analysis - Spot prices rebounded slightly [6] - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded slightly, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder fluctuated at a low level [12][16] - The 01 and 05 contract basis fluctuated slightly [4] - The 1 - 5 spread rose first and then fell, and the 01 contract basis fluctuated at a low level [20] - The screw - to - ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore - to - coke ratio rebounded slightly [27] Strategy Suggestion - The strategy is range - bound trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Iron ore currently faces increased supply and decreased demand, leading to greater contradictions and short - term pressure, and it may experience weak oscillations [36] Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (Trend Review) - **1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 (Trend of the main iron ore contract)** - This week, the iron ore price showed a strong trend, rebounding in oscillations but still maintaining a high - range oscillating trend [9] - **1.2 铁矿现货走势 (Trend of iron ore spot prices)** - The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, and others are presented in a table, indicating price changes [13] 2.基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - **2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 (Trend of the basis between iron ore futures and spot prices)** - The main contract basis is 2.5, the spread between 01 - 05 contracts is 23, the spread between pb - super special powder is 91, and the spread between Brazilian coarse - pb powder is 7 [19] - **2.2 螺纹与铁矿比价 (Ratio of rebar to iron ore)** - The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak [20] 3.供需分析 (Supply and Demand Analysis) - **3.1 铁矿供应 (Iron ore supply)** - This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1987.3 tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore was at a relatively high level year - on - year [23] - **3.2 国际海运费 (International shipping costs)** - The shipping price of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.42 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.10 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1893 [26] - **3.3 铁矿库存 - 进口矿库存 (Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory)** - Port inventory is 14542.48 tons, Australian ore inventory is 6017.4 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5743.87 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 9310.21 tons [29] - **3.4 铁矿库存 - 钢厂库存 (Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory)** - This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 14542.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.89 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8849.86 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229 tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [30] - **3.5 铁矿需求 (Iron ore demand)** - This week, the daily average pig iron output was 246.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 tons. The daily average port clearance volume remained high. The rapid decline in pig iron output led to a week - on - week weakening of iron ore demand [33] 4.后市展望 (Outlook for the Future) - Iron ore currently has increased supply and decreased demand, with greater contradictions and increased short - term pressure, and may experience weak oscillations [36]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In November 2025, iron ore demand is expected to decline, but the decline may not be significant. The supply side is likely to follow the demand and experience a slight decline. Steel demand has some resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be a short - term behavior. With the market starting to focus on steel mills' restocking expectations for iron ore in November, there is support at the lower end of iron ore prices. Therefore, iron ore prices may show a trend of bottom - finding and then rebounding in November [3][24][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In October 2025, iron ore prices fluctuated and declined but remained in the high - level oscillation range since July. Before the National Day, steel prices started to decline. Steel demand was weak, while production was high. Market funds mainly aimed to short steel mill profits, and iron ore prices were relatively strong. Driven by policies, there is an expectation of a decline in steel mill supply in the far - month, and steel spot profits are constantly compressed. The market anticipates steel mill production cuts, causing raw material prices to fluctuate under the pressure of negative feedback expectations. High steel production drives strong iron ore demand, with active iron ore shipments. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand and is affected by steel inventory accumulation, resulting in high - level oscillations [3][5][25]. Supply - Iron ore supply was at a relatively high level in October. In August, monthly iron ore imports reached 105.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. Low - cost iron ore from Simandou is expected to start increasing production at the end of 2025, with an annual production capacity gradually rising by 30 million tons, having little impact on 2025 supply but increasing long - term supply expectations. High - cost iron ore supply decreased significantly throughout the year, but it can be quickly released if future demand is strong. High - frequency data shows that iron ore supply increased significantly in October but not year - on - year. Facing the seasonal off - season, high - level iron ore supply may decline with the decrease in hot metal production. If supply remains strong, it will put pressure on iron ore prices [3][8][25]. Demand - In October, hot metal production oscillated at a high level, remaining above 2.4 million tons per day, stronger than expected. As steel is at the end of the seasonal peak season, rebar production capacity has declined, but plate supply is at a high level, supporting hot metal production. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand, and prices are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to whether the weak steel demand can be transmitted to the iron ore market. High hot metal production has led to continuous inventory depletion, and port inventory has been decreasing. The inventory depletion in July was mainly due to strong demand. Before July, the market was pessimistic about iron ore, and strong demand was not reflected. As market sentiment improved, iron ore prices rebounded to correct the pessimistic expectations [3][16][26]. Terminal Demand - Real estate demand continues to decline. In August, real estate data showed that the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area was 20%, and real estate sales were also lackluster. Building material demand is expected to remain weak, dragging down overall demand. Despite continuous policy mentions of stabilizing economic development, real estate and traditional infrastructure are unlikely to regain strength. After the implementation of the anti - involution policy, steel production has remained high. Although rebar production shows signs of reduction, plate production is still high, and steel inventory pressure is significant. It is expected that steel production capacity will gradually decline, putting pressure on iron ore demand [19][21]. Summary and Outlook - The situation in October and the analysis of supply, demand, and terminal demand are similar to the above - mentioned content. Overall, in November, iron ore demand is expected to decline slightly, and supply may also decline slightly. Steel demand has resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be short - term. With the market's focus on restocking expectations, iron ore prices may bottom out and then rebound [3][24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand are slightly weak. Coupled with the recent weak macro - sentiment, the market has adjusted. The strategy is range - bound. This week, an important meeting is held, and attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, and from Brazil was 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons [4]. - As of October 17th, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 473,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.66%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77%. The mine concentrate inventory was 933,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,400 tons [4]. - The global shipping volume stopped falling and rebounded week - on - week, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian mines and non - mainstream mines. The arrival volume decreased, and the domestic ore output increased slightly. Overall, the supply was relatively stable [5]. Demand - In the week of October 17th, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.059 million tons. The profitability rate continued to decline, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There was some support from rigid demand for restocking, but the steel mill's profit level continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 23 to 124. The port inventory and the number of ships at the port increased significantly, increasing the port inventory pressure, while the steel mill's inventory remained at a low level [4]. Price and Related Indicators - The spot price fluctuated and declined [6]. - The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [4]. - The steel mill's profitability rate declined, and the imported ore price fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [4]. - The PB powder - Super Special powder spread and the PB powder - Macfarlane powder spread fluctuated at a low level [12][16]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated little, and the 01 basis fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27].

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Outlook [1] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The real - world demand for iron ore still provides support, and ore prices are expected to oscillate at relatively high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - Seaborne shipments remain at a relatively high year - on - year level, and the freight rate from Brazil to China has increased on a month - on - month basis [5]. - The recent shipments of mainstream mines have recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have risen. Brazilian freight rates may be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa have increased on a month - on - month basis. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region is relatively low [17][19][21][30]. - Global weekly shipments were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. YTD cumulative global shipments were 1.167207 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8832 billion tons or 8%. Brazilian shipments were 8.363 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million tons or 7.7%. Australian shipments were 18.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.246 million tons or 8.49% [4]. 3.2 Demand - Considering the pre - holiday production demand for intermediate products, blast furnace operations have been increasing, and the immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong. Iron and steel production and the output of five major steel products have both increased on a month - on - month basis. The price of scrap steel has continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, helping to widen the scrap - iron price difference as iron ore prices have fallen from their highs [5][33][36]. - The iron - making output of 247 enterprises was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons [4]. 3.3 Macro - level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the market had already priced this in, so the impact was limited after the announcement. The domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5]. 3.4 Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract oscillated strongly, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 509,000 lots, a decrease of 65,600 lots. The average daily trading volume was 28,400 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 55,800 lots [7]. 3.5 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have fallen from their recent highs. For example, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased from 799 yuan/ton last week to 785 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [12]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at 45 ports has once again exceeded 140 million tons [40][42]. 3.7 Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, leading to a downward revision of the paper profit [44]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Differences - The price of PB powder has fallen more than other varieties this week [46]. 3.9 Futures Spread - The 1 - 5 futures spread has stabilized [50]. 3.10 Basis Performance - As the futures price has fallen from its high, the basis for the 01 and 05 contracts has widened on a month - on - month basis [54].