Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Iron ore currently faces increased supply and decreased demand, leading to greater contradictions and short - term pressure, and it may experience weak oscillations [36] Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (Trend Review) - **1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 (Trend of the main iron ore contract)** - This week, the iron ore price showed a strong trend, rebounding in oscillations but still maintaining a high - range oscillating trend [9] - **1.2 铁矿现货走势 (Trend of iron ore spot prices)** - The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, and others are presented in a table, indicating price changes [13] 2.基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - **2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 (Trend of the basis between iron ore futures and spot prices)** - The main contract basis is 2.5, the spread between 01 - 05 contracts is 23, the spread between pb - super special powder is 91, and the spread between Brazilian coarse - pb powder is 7 [19] - **2.2 螺纹与铁矿比价 (Ratio of rebar to iron ore)** - The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak [20] 3.供需分析 (Supply and Demand Analysis) - **3.1 铁矿供应 (Iron ore supply)** - This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1987.3 tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore was at a relatively high level year - on - year [23] - **3.2 国际海运费 (International shipping costs)** - The shipping price of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.42 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.10 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1893 [26] - **3.3 铁矿库存 - 进口矿库存 (Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory)** - Port inventory is 14542.48 tons, Australian ore inventory is 6017.4 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5743.87 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 9310.21 tons [29] - **3.4 铁矿库存 - 钢厂库存 (Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory)** - This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 14542.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.89 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8849.86 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229 tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [30] - **3.5 铁矿需求 (Iron ore demand)** - This week, the daily average pig iron output was 246.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 tons. The daily average port clearance volume remained high. The rapid decline in pig iron output led to a week - on - week weakening of iron ore demand [33] 4.后市展望 (Outlook for the Future) - Iron ore currently has increased supply and decreased demand, with greater contradictions and increased short - term pressure, and may experience weak oscillations [36]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In November 2025, iron ore demand is expected to decline, but the decline may not be significant. The supply side is likely to follow the demand and experience a slight decline. Steel demand has some resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be a short - term behavior. With the market starting to focus on steel mills' restocking expectations for iron ore in November, there is support at the lower end of iron ore prices. Therefore, iron ore prices may show a trend of bottom - finding and then rebounding in November [3][24][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In October 2025, iron ore prices fluctuated and declined but remained in the high - level oscillation range since July. Before the National Day, steel prices started to decline. Steel demand was weak, while production was high. Market funds mainly aimed to short steel mill profits, and iron ore prices were relatively strong. Driven by policies, there is an expectation of a decline in steel mill supply in the far - month, and steel spot profits are constantly compressed. The market anticipates steel mill production cuts, causing raw material prices to fluctuate under the pressure of negative feedback expectations. High steel production drives strong iron ore demand, with active iron ore shipments. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand and is affected by steel inventory accumulation, resulting in high - level oscillations [3][5][25]. Supply - Iron ore supply was at a relatively high level in October. In August, monthly iron ore imports reached 105.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. Low - cost iron ore from Simandou is expected to start increasing production at the end of 2025, with an annual production capacity gradually rising by 30 million tons, having little impact on 2025 supply but increasing long - term supply expectations. High - cost iron ore supply decreased significantly throughout the year, but it can be quickly released if future demand is strong. High - frequency data shows that iron ore supply increased significantly in October but not year - on - year. Facing the seasonal off - season, high - level iron ore supply may decline with the decrease in hot metal production. If supply remains strong, it will put pressure on iron ore prices [3][8][25]. Demand - In October, hot metal production oscillated at a high level, remaining above 2.4 million tons per day, stronger than expected. As steel is at the end of the seasonal peak season, rebar production capacity has declined, but plate supply is at a high level, supporting hot metal production. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand, and prices are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to whether the weak steel demand can be transmitted to the iron ore market. High hot metal production has led to continuous inventory depletion, and port inventory has been decreasing. The inventory depletion in July was mainly due to strong demand. Before July, the market was pessimistic about iron ore, and strong demand was not reflected. As market sentiment improved, iron ore prices rebounded to correct the pessimistic expectations [3][16][26]. Terminal Demand - Real estate demand continues to decline. In August, real estate data showed that the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area was 20%, and real estate sales were also lackluster. Building material demand is expected to remain weak, dragging down overall demand. Despite continuous policy mentions of stabilizing economic development, real estate and traditional infrastructure are unlikely to regain strength. After the implementation of the anti - involution policy, steel production has remained high. Although rebar production shows signs of reduction, plate production is still high, and steel inventory pressure is significant. It is expected that steel production capacity will gradually decline, putting pressure on iron ore demand [19][21]. Summary and Outlook - The situation in October and the analysis of supply, demand, and terminal demand are similar to the above - mentioned content. Overall, in November, iron ore demand is expected to decline slightly, and supply may also decline slightly. Steel demand has resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be short - term. With the market's focus on restocking expectations, iron ore prices may bottom out and then rebound [3][24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand are slightly weak. Coupled with the recent weak macro - sentiment, the market has adjusted. The strategy is range - bound. This week, an important meeting is held, and attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, and from Brazil was 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons [4]. - As of October 17th, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 473,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.66%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77%. The mine concentrate inventory was 933,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,400 tons [4]. - The global shipping volume stopped falling and rebounded week - on - week, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian mines and non - mainstream mines. The arrival volume decreased, and the domestic ore output increased slightly. Overall, the supply was relatively stable [5]. Demand - In the week of October 17th, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.059 million tons. The profitability rate continued to decline, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There was some support from rigid demand for restocking, but the steel mill's profit level continued to shrink, and market expectations weakened [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported ore increased this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 23 to 124. The port inventory and the number of ships at the port increased significantly, increasing the port inventory pressure, while the steel mill's inventory remained at a low level [4]. Price and Related Indicators - The spot price fluctuated and declined [6]. - The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [4]. - The steel mill's profitability rate declined, and the imported ore price fluctuated in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [4]. - The PB powder - Super Special powder spread and the PB powder - Macfarlane powder spread fluctuated at a low level [12][16]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated little, and the 01 basis fluctuated at a low level [20]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [27].

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Weekly Outlook [1] - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The real - world demand for iron ore still provides support, and ore prices are expected to oscillate at relatively high levels [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - Seaborne shipments remain at a relatively high year - on - year level, and the freight rate from Brazil to China has increased on a month - on - month basis [5]. - The recent shipments of mainstream mines have recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have risen. Brazilian freight rates may be driven by Vale. Shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa have increased on a month - on - month basis. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region is relatively low [17][19][21][30]. - Global weekly shipments were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. YTD cumulative global shipments were 1.167207 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8832 billion tons or 8%. Brazilian shipments were 8.363 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 million tons or 7.7%. Australian shipments were 18.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.246 million tons or 8.49% [4]. 3.2 Demand - Considering the pre - holiday production demand for intermediate products, blast furnace operations have been increasing, and the immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong. Iron and steel production and the output of five major steel products have both increased on a month - on - month basis. The price of scrap steel has continued to rise on a month - on - month basis, helping to widen the scrap - iron price difference as iron ore prices have fallen from their highs [5][33][36]. - The iron - making output of 247 enterprises was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons [4]. 3.3 Macro - level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the market had already priced this in, so the impact was limited after the announcement. The domestic macro - economic outlook remains positive, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5]. 3.4 Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract oscillated strongly, closing at 790.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 509,000 lots, a decrease of 65,600 lots. The average daily trading volume was 28,400 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 55,800 lots [7]. 3.5 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have fallen from their recent highs. For example, the price of PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased from 799 yuan/ton last week to 785 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [12]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at 45 ports has once again exceeded 140 million tons [40][42]. 3.7 Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, leading to a downward revision of the paper profit [44]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Differences - The price of PB powder has fallen more than other varieties this week [46]. 3.9 Futures Spread - The 1 - 5 futures spread has stabilized [50]. 3.10 Basis Performance - As the futures price has fallen from its high, the basis for the 01 and 05 contracts has widened on a month - on - month basis [54].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have both weakened. Steel mills' production is slowing down, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined from its peak. With short - term production restrictions and shrinking steel mill profits, ore demand is expected to decline. The previous main logic supporting the iron ore price has changed. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased again, and overseas miners' shipments have also declined from their peak. However, according to shipping schedules, the arrival volume from Australia and Brazil will increase, and the overseas ore supply will remain high, while the domestic ore supply is relatively limited, showing a stable operation. Overall, the resilience of ore demand provides support for the price, but the positive effect is weakening due to shrinking steel mill profits and production restrictions. The supply is stable at a high level, and the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed much. It is expected that the high - valued iron ore price will continue to fluctuate, and the performance of steel prices should be monitored [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,763.02, a decrease of 82.18 compared to the previous week, an increase of 105.12 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 1,609.36 compared to the same period [2]. - 247 - steel mill import ore inventory is 9,007.19, a decrease of 58.28 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.90 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 10.72 compared to the same period [2]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume is 2,393.30, a decrease of 83.30 compared to the previous week, an increase of 152.80 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 173.60 compared to the same period [2]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 3,315.80, a decrease of 90.80 compared to the previous week, an increase of 114.90 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 94.70 compared to the same period [2]. Demand - 247 - steel mill daily average hot metal production is 240.13, a decrease of 0.62 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 0.58 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 19.24 compared to the same period [2]. - 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume is 318.64, a decrease of 7.10 compared to the previous week, an increase of 15.93 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 18.65 compared to the same period [2]. - 247 - steel mill import ore daily consumption is 296.10, a decrease of 1.74 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 3.36 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 23.92 compared to the same period [2]. - Main - port iron ore trading weekly average is 93.85, a decrease of 7.73 compared to the previous week, an increase of 5.05 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 15.63 compared to the same period [2].

品种观点参考 - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight downward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5 [2] - The core logic is that both supply and demand are weak, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. The number of steel mill inspections has increased, and the terminal consumption of ore has been continuously decreasing. The demand in the off - season has weakened as expected. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the reduction space is limited. At the same time, the arrival at ports has significantly increased, but the shipping volume of miners has continued to be weak. According to the shipping schedule, it is difficult to have a continuous increase in subsequent arrivals. Overseas ore supply remains at a low level, and domestic ore production has also weakened, resulting in a contraction in supply [3] - Currently, the optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the ore price to remain at a high level. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level, with the upward driving force weakening. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating and consolidating state, and it is necessary to pay attention to the performance of finished products [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint In the context of the trade war, although the time and manner of the implementation of production - restriction policies are uncertain, it is highly likely that such policies will be introduced, leading to a long - term expectation of decreased iron ore demand. Even if the policies are not implemented in the short term, steel mill profits will be squeezed first, followed by forced production cuts, which will also reduce iron ore demand. In terms of supply, the second quarter is expected to see an increase in iron ore supply, and port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. Therefore, iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure in the later period [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Overview In early April, iron ore prices dropped significantly due to systemic risks. After mid - April, prices returned to the fundamental logic of high hot metal production, and decreasing supply and inventory, outperforming steel prices. In late April, prices weakened again due to rumors of crude steel production cuts. It is expected that in the next 1 - 2 months, iron ore prices may experience a catch - up decline, with spot prices possibly falling to $85 - 90 per ton [7]. Iron Water High Production May Not Be Sustainable In April, the daily hot metal production reached a high of 2.4453 million tons. Given the weak domestic steel demand and external trade conflicts, it is highly likely that production - restriction policies will be introduced, though the time and manner of implementation are uncertain. In May, steel demand is likely to weaken. If production - restriction policies are not implemented within 1 - 2 months, steel supply will remain high, squeezing steel mill profits and forcing production cuts. In any case, daily hot metal production is unlikely to stay above 2.4 million tons for long [7][8]. Second - Quarter Supply Has an Uptrend Expectation Affected by factors such as Australian cyclones and Brazilian railway transportation disruptions, the production and sales of iron ore in the first quarter were at a low level. The output of the four major mines in the first quarter was 246 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and sales were 249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Historically, the second quarter is the peak season for iron ore shipments. Based on the average of the past four years, the global iron ore shipments in the second quarter are expected to increase by about 56 million tons compared to the first quarter. The four major mines have not lowered their annual shipment targets, so there is an expectation of increased supply in the second quarter [10][11]. Iron Ore Inventory Inflection Point May Appear in May From late March to mid - April, the arrival volume of iron ore decreased, while hot metal production increased. Due to pre - holiday steel mill restocking, iron ore port inventories decreased for three consecutive weeks in April, with a cumulative decrease of 4.644 million tons. Currently, steel mill restocking has temporarily ended. Looking forward, supply is likely to continue to increase, and hot metal production is likely to decline. Therefore, after May, iron ore port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. This is also supported by the ratio of iron ore port clearance volume to arrival volume [12]. Conclusion and Investment Advice The real - world fundamentals of iron ore were still strong in April. Looking ahead, the expectation of decreased iron ore demand will persist. Supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and port inventories are likely to rise. Iron ore spot prices face pressure around $100 per ton and may fall to $85 - 90 per ton. Considering the discount factor, the iron ore 09 contract faces pressure around 720 - 730 [15].