2022年1月1日，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)正式生效，并于2023年6月2日在15个成员方全 面实施。随着RCEP关税减让幅度的不断扩大、企业对原产地累积规则等协定条款运用能力进一步提 升，政策红利也在持续释放。在当前国际经济形势不确定性、不稳定性进一步增强的大背景下，鲁企对 RCEP的利用成效有哪些新变化？RCEP对于鲁企产业链供应链带来了什么影响？ 降税范围扩大，企业开拓多元化市场 近年来，在共建"一带一路"倡议的带动下，东盟已稳居我国第一大外贸市场，去年前11个月，我国与东 盟贸易总值达6.82万亿元，增长8.5%，占我国外贸总值的16.6%。 临沂山松生物制品有限公司是一家主要从事大豆蛋白产品研发、生产、销售的农业产业化国家重点龙头 企业，其产品远销东盟等海外市场。 公司外贸部经理张广前介绍，当前我国企业出口东盟可以适用RCEP和中国-东盟自贸协定两种贸易协定 项下优惠。RCEP生效以来，临沂山松生物制品有限公司出口大豆蛋白到东盟相关国家市场的关税减让 幅度已经达到5个百分点。"借助关税减让带来的价格优势，我们的出口订单实现稳步增长。"张广前介 绍，2025年，公司共申办了36份RCE ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with major indices declining, including the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3894.22 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.19% to 13031.26 points, and the ChiNext down 0.5% to 3055.92 points, with a total trading volume of 1.07 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector rebounded, with Aerospace Power hitting the upper limit and Shunhao Co. achieving four consecutive trading limit-ups [1] - The coal sector saw a rapid increase, with Antai Group achieving two consecutive limit-ups, and Dayou Energy and New Dazhou A hitting the upper limit [1] - The Fujian sector was active, with Hai Xin Food achieving six consecutive limit-ups and Sun Cable achieving two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The superhard materials concept strengthened, with Huanghe Xuanfeng reaching the upper limit [1] - The AI application sector collectively weakened, with Fushi Holdings dropping over 11% [1] Popular Sectors - The airport and shipping sector saw a short-term rise, with stocks like Huaxia Airlines and Juneyao Airlines increasing in value. This was driven by a joint announcement from two departments to promote the integration of aviation and tourism, aiming to significantly improve tourism service levels by 2027 [2] - The pharmaceutical sector continued to perform strongly, with Haiwang Bio achieving six consecutive limit-ups and Ruikang Pharmaceutical also performing well. The China CDC indicated a peak in flu cases is likely in mid-December, which may drive demand in the pharmaceutical sector [3] Emerging Trends - Cultivated diamond stocks experienced a broad increase, led by Sifangda, with other companies like World and Huifeng Diamond rising by 5%. The upcoming 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference is expected to boost interest in this sector [4] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Caifu noted a strong expectation for RMB appreciation, which may accelerate foreign capital allocation to the A-share market. The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to several factors, including Fed rate cut expectations and improved Sino-US relations [5] - Xinda Securities outlined three conditions for index breakthroughs, emphasizing the importance of policy changes from the Central Economic Work Conference, economic data improvement, and significant inflows of resident funds [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a 50% tariff on Indian products by the United States is expected to severely impact India's diamond processing industry, which is already facing challenges due to declining global demand for diamonds [1]. Group 1: Impact on Indian Diamond Industry - India is the largest natural diamond processing country, handling approximately 90% of the world's diamond cutting and polishing [1]. - The new tariff will exacerbate the already struggling Indian diamond export business, which is projected to generate around $32 billion in jewelry exports for the fiscal year 2023-2024, with the U.S. accounting for about one-third of this market, approximately $9 billion [1]. - The chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) expressed significant concern over the impact of the tariffs on the entire value chain of the industry [1]. Group 2: Response from Indian Businesses - Due to the new tariffs, U.S. clients have begun canceling orders, leading to operational difficulties for many local factories in India [1]. - Some diamond processing factories are reducing raw diamond purchases, lowering inventory, cutting working hours to maintain cash flow, and even significantly lowering prices to stay operational [1]. - There are plans among several factories to shift processing operations to countries with lower tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The tariff increase is expected to raise procurement costs for U.S. importers, potentially leading to a 5%-10% increase in retail prices for natural diamonds, which may drive consumers towards more cost-effective options like lab-grown diamonds or second-hand jewelry [2]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether Indian diamond merchants will return to the Chinese market, as the transition of production capabilities is complex and time-consuming [3]. - Some analysts suggest that Indian companies might resort to "third-country transshipment" (e.g., through Dubai or Israel) to circumvent tariffs, although this could increase logistics costs and delivery times, thereby reshaping the global diamond supply chain [3].

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. on Indian goods has significantly strained U.S.-India relations, impacting various sectors of India's export industry and threatening economic growth [3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - Starting Wednesday, the U.S. has raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, which includes a 25% retaliatory tariff and an additional 25% due to India's oil purchases from Russia [3]. - The global trade research initiative estimates that affected exports account for two-thirds of India's $90 billion exports to the U.S., potentially reducing annual export value by nearly $40 billion, which could lower India's economic growth rate by nearly 1 percentage point for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3]. Group 2: Affected Industries - The tariff increase severely impacts labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, furniture, shrimp farming, and diamond processing, with significant employment risks for workers in these industries [3]. - Indian textile industry representatives have raised concerns about existing orders and who will bear the cost of the tariffs, noting that tariffs on U.S. imports of Indian apparel have now exceeded 60%, far higher than competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh [3]. Group 3: Government Response - Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of not sacrificing the interests of farmers, livestock owners, and fishermen, urging citizens to support local products and promote national self-reliance [3]. - Despite government efforts, there are fears within the export sector that India's market share in the U.S. will rapidly decline [3][4].

Group 1 - The United States has officially imposed a 50% tariff on products imported from India, severely impacting industries such as leather and diamond processing [1][3] - Many American clients have begun canceling orders, leading to factory shutdowns in Kanpur, a major leather processing center in India, which heavily relies on the U.S. market [3][9] - The diamond processing industry is also affected, with the U.S. accounting for one-third of India's annual gem and jewelry exports, amounting to approximately $9 billion [5][7] Group 2 - Over 80% of raw diamonds are cut and polished in Surat, Gujarat, India, and the new tariffs exacerbate an already sluggish diamond export business, prompting factories to reduce raw diamond purchases and cut inventory [7][9] - The Indian Export Organization has indicated that the higher tariffs will put about 55% of products exported to the U.S. at a "price disadvantage," particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors like leather, chemicals, and handicrafts, leading to significant job losses [9]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has officially imposed a 50% tariff on products imported from India, significantly impacting industries such as leather and diamond processing, leading to order cancellations and operational difficulties for many factories [1][3][11]. Group 1: Impact on Leather Industry - Kanpur, a major leather processing center in India, has seen numerous American clients cancel orders, resulting in factory shutdowns and a shift towards local sales or exports to other countries [3][5]. - Exporters in Kanpur report that all orders with American clients have been rendered void, with one exporter stating that a client has halted supply until the tariff issue is resolved [5]. Group 2: Impact on Diamond Industry - The diamond processing sector is also severely affected, with the U.S. accounting for one-third of India's annual gem and jewelry exports, approximately $9 billion [7]. - The new tariff policy exacerbates an already sluggish diamond export business, prompting some factories to reduce raw diamond purchases, cut inventory, and lower working hours to maintain cash flow [9]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The Federation of Indian Export Organizations has indicated that the increased tariffs will put about 55% of goods exported to the U.S. at a "price disadvantage," particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors like leather, chemicals, and handicrafts, leading to significant job losses [11].

Core Viewpoint - The missile attack by Iran on June 19 has significant implications for Israel's diamond industry, particularly affecting the world's largest diamond exchange located in Ramat Gan, which is a major manufacturing and financial hub in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area [1]. Group 1 - The missile strike directly hit near the Israeli Diamond Exchange, causing extensive damage to nearby buildings, including shattered glass facades [1]. - The attack on the diamond trading center may impact Israel's diamond industry, which is a monopolistic sector for the country [1]. - Ramat Gan is identified as a key manufacturing center in Israel, housing numerous financial institutions and serving as the largest satellite city of Tel Aviv [1].