今日早参 2025 年 12 月 31 日 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月美国金融条件进一步放松 近期数据显示美国经济增长动能整体改善：三季度 GDP 增速超预期（彭博 一致预期，下同）；12 月以来居民消费仍有韧性，企业投资意愿边际修复， 地产仍然偏弱；10-11 月美国私人就业维持扩张，11 月 CPI 通胀也超预期降 温，但两者均不同程度受到政府关门扰动；企业雇佣意愿和首申数据指示就 业趋势性改善；12 月 PMI 边际放缓但仍处扩张区间。12 月金融条件进一步 放松，主要受美元走弱、美股上涨推动。往前看，关注 12 月非农就业（1 月 9 日）、12 月 CPI（1 月 13 日）、联储主席人选（1 月初宣布）以及美联储 1 月 FOMC 会议（1 月 27-28 日）。 风险提示：美国就业市场走弱速度超预期，美国流动性紧张缓解不及预期。 研报发布日期：2025-12-30 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首 ...

Core Insights - The panda bond market has seen its first successful issuance by a U.S. company, Morgan Stanley, which issued a 5-year panda bond worth 2 billion yuan at a coupon rate of only 1.98, indicating strong investor demand [1] - Hungary has also issued two panda bonds, a 3-year bond worth 4 billion yuan and a 5-year bond worth 1 billion yuan, marking significant milestones in the panda bond market [1] - The issuance scale of panda bonds in the interbank market has exceeded 100 billion yuan this year, reflecting the growing interest of foreign investors in renminbi financing [1] Market Dynamics - The low interest rate environment for renminbi financing is a key factor driving the increase in panda bond issuances, alongside the deepening of China's financial market opening and the expansion of international trade partnerships [2] - Since 2022, regulatory policies have been implemented to facilitate panda bond issuance, optimizing the registration process and allowing more flexible use of raised funds, including overseas usage [2] - China's ongoing high-level opening up and the widespread use of renminbi in cross-border trade have bolstered confidence among domestic and foreign entities in holding and using renminbi, further promoting the development of the panda bond market [2]