Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term market for lithium carbonate is weak, but the long - term outlook is positive. In March, the domestic supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has loosened marginally, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation. There is selling pressure from hedging positions and macro - sentiment, but there is also certain support from the demand peak season and normal imports from April to May. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips when the macro - environment stabilizes for unilateral trading, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to adopt protective strategies for options [6]. Summary According to the Directory Demand Analysis - **New Energy Vehicles**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weak consumer willingness, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in February decreased year - on - year. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to February and from March 1 - 15 also declined year - on - year. However, the power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year from January to February, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The global new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 decreased by 6% year - on - year, with European sales growing by 22.1% and US sales decreasing by 25%. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to February 2026 increased by 108% year - on - year [14][22]. - **Energy Storage Market**: Supported by policies, the energy storage market has full orders. The 2026 National Development and Reform Commission Document No. 114 proposed a capacity - based electricity price mechanism for grid - side independent new - type energy storage, increasing profit sources. After the Spring Festival, the demand for replenishing orders was released, and the orders of first - and second - tier enterprises are scheduled until the second half of the year [28]. - **Cell and Cathode Production**: In February, the production of batteries, cells, cathodes, and electrolytes decreased month - on - month. In March, the production of all these aspects increased month - on - month. It is expected that each link will have a small month - on - month increase in April [35]. Supply Analysis - **Smelter Resumption and Production Restoration**: From January to February, the production of lithium carbonate decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance, but the cumulative year - on - year growth was 43%. In March, with the resumption of production and the ramping - up of new capacity, the monthly production is expected to exceed 105,000 tons, reaching a record high. The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials, except mica, is increasing. The resumption of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe is a key factor affecting future domestic lithium ore supply [43]. - **Monthly Production by Raw Material in China**: The supply of mica ore is insufficient [44]. - **Increased Supply in March**: From January to February, the cumulative imports of lithium carbonate increased by 65% year - on - year to 52,000 tons. After March, imports may gradually return to normal. The cumulative imports of lithium ore from January to February increased by 22% year - on - year. Australian mines were shipped intensively in March, and there will be no significant impact on lithium ore imports before May [52]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory - **Supply - Demand Balance Estimation**: No specific numerical analysis of supply - demand balance is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the supply - demand balance has loosened marginally in March, and inventory accumulation is expected [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: After the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction has continuously slowed down, with a reduction of only 86 tons this week, and inventory accumulation may occur next week. Although the supply - demand balance has loosened marginally, the domestic inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to the level of early 2022, supporting high - level prices. Inventory has shifted downstream, and the middle and upstream still have room for inventory replenishment, but smelters are more active in shipping after the weakening of lithium price increases. Smelter inventories are still low, and downstream buyers have sufficient stocks and are not in a hurry to purchase [62].

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a rebound this week, with wide fluctuations within a range. Inventory reduction in the industry continues, but the pace may slow down in December compared to November. Downstream entities are beginning to actively reduce inventory, while traders are actively stockpiling. Upstream capacity utilization has reached new highs, but there are signs of weakening demand in the downstream power market. The recovery and insufficient production in the lithium mining sector, combined with the impact of environmental inspections, provide strong support for lithium prices. The exchange's modification of delivery rules may boost market confidence in the short term [5][39]. Mining Sector - This week, the central price of minerals has significantly rebounded alongside futures prices. Overseas mines are willing to release high-priced products, and demand from buyers supports mineral prices [3][35]. Upstream Sector - Upstream capacity utilization has reached a new high, with new production lines for spodumene and salt lakes contributing to increased output in November. The inventory of lithium carbonate continues to decrease, although the pace of reduction has slightly slowed. According to SMM data, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate reached 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from the previous week [3][24][35]. Downstream Sector - The peak season is coming to an end, with a decline in demand in the power and consumer markets, while energy storage continues to see strong supply and demand. Some ternary enterprises are looking to reduce inventory, while major phosphate iron lithium manufacturers are still operating at full capacity, and smaller manufacturers are gradually transitioning to contract manufacturing. This week, the market price of phosphate iron lithium has slightly increased, while ternary prices remain stable [3][35]. Market Information - On the 12th, the Guangxi Futures Exchange adjusted delivery details, changing the quality standards to the 2023 version and shifting from an exempt brand system to a registered brand system. This change is expected to improve the alignment between futures and spot markets, promoting industry development and concentration [4][36]. - This week, the spot transaction focus has risen, driven by downstream demand and inventory reduction intentions. The main contract's trading volume and open interest have increased, with the market showing a strong upward trend while remaining within a range, maintaining a premium over the spot market [4][37]. Future Focus - Attention will be on the exchange's release of modified rules for lithium carbonate futures and options business after Friday's trading, which may boost market confidence in the short term. The pace of inventory reduction is slowing, and there is a need to be cautious about weakening demand [6][40]. - The movements in the mining sector remain a key factor affecting the market, requiring continuous monitoring [7][40]. - The pressure from new supply capacity in the supply side may gradually become prominent in the medium to long term, and considerations for the industry's return to inventory accumulation should take into account the basic fundamentals moving towards the off-season [8][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the production of lithium carbonate remains high. High prices have intensified the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The peak of power demand may be approaching. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to decline. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The report suggests investors to take a wait - and - see approach [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to the previous period. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 80,460 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan from the previous period [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 810,655 hands (+228,622), and the open interest was 490,951 hands (+18,968) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,332 tons, an increase of 912 tons [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,700 yuan, up 780 yuan; the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was 60 yuan, down 60 yuan; the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan, up 300 yuan; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,900 yuan, down 1,800 yuan [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) all increased [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), and some types of lithium hydroxide changed slightly. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan compared to the previous period, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 4,820 yuan, down 100 yuan [1] - **Other Materials**: The prices of some materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate changed little, while the price of cobalt metal increased [1] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,405 tons compared to the previous period. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other sectors all decreased [1] 3.4 Industry News - Australian listed company Clean TeQ Water signed a contract worth about 12.5 million US dollars (about 19.2 million Australian dollars) with Rio Tinto's subsidiary Rincon Mining to provide engineering design, procurement, and supply services for the Rancoin project in Argentina. The project will use Clean TeQ's patented CLEAN - IX mobile lithium ion exchange (MBIX) technology, which is expected to be completed in three years [1] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased last week, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all rose [1] - **Demand**: The production of lithium carbonate products, ternary materials, and power batteries increased last week. In November, the production of cobalt - lithium products increased, while the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is addressing the environmental concerns related to lithium extraction from mica waste by innovating its smelting technology and processes, achieving significant improvements in lithium recovery rates and cost reduction [1]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The company has formed a technical team to develop a new process for lithium extraction using sulfuric acid, which has successfully passed pilot tests [1]. - The company has overcome challenges related to the environmental standards for the discharge of lithium mica waste, including elements like thallium, beryllium, and fluorine [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The lithium recovery rate from mica has been significantly improved, reaching as high as 90% [1]. - The comprehensive recovery and utilization of valuable elements have led to a substantial reduction in production costs [1].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to decline, with prices for industrial-grade lithium carbonate in East China at 58,500 to 60,100 yuan per ton and battery-grade at 59,800 to 61,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 400 yuan per ton from the previous period [1] - Since July 2020, lithium carbonate prices have experienced significant volatility, peaking at 570,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, followed by a decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton by early June 2025, representing a drop of over 89% from the peak [1] - The core reason for the price volatility is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics, with continued expansion in the lithium carbonate supply chain leading to oversupply, while the bottom price remains uncertain as it approaches some companies' cash cost lines [1] Group 2 - In June, some smelting plants resumed production, but overseas shipping data indicates a potential decrease in lithium carbonate imports, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand [2] - Analysts expect short-term price fluctuations for lithium carbonate, with limited downward momentum due to the market's focus on low warehouse inventories [2] - The mid-term outlook for lithium carbonate remains challenging, with strong smelting plant output and weak terminal demand, indicating a trend towards a seasonal decline in consumption [2] Group 3 - As lithium ore prices continue to decline and approach mining costs, more production capacity may be forced to exit the market [3] - Companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to enhance competitiveness in the lithium industry [3] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditures, which may lead to a decrease in supply growth, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics as demand continues to grow [3] Group 4 - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a challenging period for lithium carbonate smelting plants, emphasizing the need for sufficient cash flow and lithium ore resources to survive [4] - Cost reduction is identified as the most urgent requirement for companies to avoid being eliminated from the market [4]