矿端变动再引资金关注，碳酸锂双向扰动或将加剧 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约价格9月10日收于70720元/吨，较前一日 下跌2.99%，呈现连续回落态势，盘中最低逼近一个月低位。基差走强至 2280元/吨。 持仓与成交：持仓量环比减少3%至34.1万手，连续五个交易日下滑；成交 量则大幅回升27%至75.1万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：宁德时代控股子公司9月9日召开枧下窝锂矿复产工作会议，计划 11月复产，若落地可能释放锂辉石原料增量，但短期供应仍依赖现有产 能。当前锂辉石路线碳酸锂产量占比超60%，盐湖及云母路线占比下降，叠 加碳酸锂产能利用率维持66.41%未提升，短期供应增速受限。 需求端：8月新能源车零售同比增5%、环比增9%，渗透率达55.3%，旺季需 求韧性显现，但正极材料环节出现分化：三元材料折扣系数9月或上调，动 力型磷酸铁锂价格环比降0.8%，反映下游成本敏感度上升；电芯环节钴酸 锂价格跳涨5%至6.25元/Ah，但对碳酸锂需求拉动有限。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂总库存环比下降0.74%至14.0万吨，连续两周去库，叠 加现货贴水收窄及下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may fluctuate widely within the current range. The contraction expectation caused by CATL's production suspension on the supply side is being partially offset by the increase in salt - lake lithium extraction and the recovery of imports. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the procurement rhythm has become cautious due to previous stockpiling, and the continuous pressure on cathode material prices weakens demand elasticity. Lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate within the high - level range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.45% from the previous trading day. The basis continued to weaken, dropping from 3,320 yuan/ton on the 25th to 2,680 yuan/ton, and the futures discount to the spot increased, indicating that the market's expectation of future supply pressure has increased [1]. - The trading volume of the main contract shrank by 10.7% to 559,599 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19,171 lots. The trading activity of funds cooled down, and some long - positions left the market for risk - avoidance [1]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term adjustments. The suspension of CATL's Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mica mining area since August 10 has supported the spot market. However, the expansion projects of salt - lake lithium extraction are advancing, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has increased by 2.49 percentage points week - on - week to 66.41%, so the overall supply has increased marginally. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 22% month - on - month to 13,845 tons, but Chile's exports to China increased by 33% month - on - month, and the seasonal recovery of overseas supply may ease the tight domestic resource situation [2]. - **Demand side**: The demand in the peak season remains resilient but has limited upward momentum. From August 1 to 17, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 58%, and the demand has improved marginally. The production of cathode materials has remained at a high level, but the prices of power - type lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have declined slightly, and the downstream cost transfer is under pressure. The overall cell prices are stable, and only the square lithium iron phosphate cells have risen slightly by 0.62%. The rigid demand on the demand side still exists, but the momentum for new orders is insufficient [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 713 tons week - on - week to 141,543 tons, with a destocking rate of 0.5%, indicating that the supply - demand tight - balance pattern continues. There is no significant change in warehouse receipts, and the low - inventory environment still supports the price bottom [2]. c. Market Summary - The short - term lithium carbonate market may fluctuate widely within the current range. The lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate within the high - level range, and attention should be paid to the unexpected disturbances to the supply caused by the production reduction or suspension events of lithium mica smelters due to cost inversion [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 79,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% from August 25. The basis was 2,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.28% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.20% to 349,496 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 10.74% to 559,599 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% [5]. - From August 15 to August 22, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.50% to 141,543 tons. Among the cells, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 0.23%, the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 3.60%, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased by 0.62% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On August 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 780 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream procurement and pricing activities increased slightly compared with the previous day, but some manufacturers reduced their procurement volume this week compared with last week. The overall downstream procurement attitude has become cautious, and they are generally waiting for further price cuts. In the short term, the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within the range [6]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 to 17, the retail volume of the new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7]. c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of CATL's Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industrial chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and renovation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine for lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Guotou Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan, which will have a positive impact on the company's development in the salt - lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, CATL's Jianxiawo mining area suspended production due to the expiration of the mining license, which will directly affect the price of lithium carbonate. Yichun local mines are required to re - apply before September 30 this year [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly lists the names of various data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, etc., without specific data descriptions [10][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has soared due to supply disruptions and market sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been substantially reversed. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by import increases. The downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the weak trading reflects the limited acceptance of high prices in the industry chain. The continuous accumulation of social inventory and warehouse receipts suppresses the rebound momentum of spot prices. It is expected that the price will enter a high - level oscillation range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25% from August 8. Affected by the news of the lithium mine shutdown over the weekend, all contracts were at the daily limit. The basis weakened significantly from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased slightly by 0.94% to 317,600 lots, and the trading volume dropped sharply by 95.75% to 38,000 lots, indicating a highly consistent bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - **Supply and Demand in the Industrial Chain and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area stopped production on August 9 due to the expiration of the mining license, restricting the supply of lithium mica. However, the lithium extraction capacity from spodumene remained high, and there was potential supply elasticity from overseas mines in Africa and South America, resulting in a differentiated supply pressure in China. Lithium salt plants could make up for short - term shortages through inventory or imported ores. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. In July, the retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 10% month - on - month, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate materials rebounded to 32,850 yuan/ton, supported by the stocking demand of energy storage and some battery factories. The price of ternary materials remained stable, indicating that the demand for vehicle - used power batteries had not significantly increased. As of August 7, the social inventory increased to 142,400 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory soared to 18,800 tons, indicating a loose supply in the spot circulation link and strong delivery intention, which suppressed the upward space of near - month contracts [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has rapidly risen due to supply disruptions and sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been resolved. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by imports. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the light trading reflects limited acceptance of high prices. The continuous accumulation of inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate at a high level in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From August 8 to August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 76,960 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.25%. The basis weakened from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.94% to 317,676 lots, and the trading volume dropped by 95.75% to 38,071 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.33% to 72,200 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose by 12.5% to 900 yuan/ton, and the market price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 8.33% to 975 yuan/ton. From August 1 to August 8, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 63.92%, and the lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.49% to 142,418 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 74,567 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 74,500 yuan/ton. The suspension of mining in the Jiangxi Jianxiawo area affected the output of lithium mica and related lithium carbonate, causing the lithium carbonate futures to open at the daily limit. However, the increase in spodumene - based lithium carbonate and the use of inventory or zero - order purchases by related lithium salt plants could prevent a significant shortage in the spot market. Both upstream and downstream parties were cautious, and market trading was light [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.003 million, a 14% year - on - year increase but a 10% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 1.179 million, a 25% year - on - year increase but a 4% month - on - month decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: From late July to the end of the month, the price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. On the supply side, major mining companies suspended public quotations, and some traders reduced inventory and controlled shipments. On the demand side, the price increase of cobalt smelting products was slower than that of cobalt intermediate products, leading to cost inversion for smelting plants. Some smelting enterprises with low inventory planned to substitute raw materials or reduce production. Affected by the delay policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the supply of cobalt intermediate products in China may be short, and prices may rise, but the impact on downstream demand needs attention [8][9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The supply side shows increasing production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side experiences a decline in the retail growth rate of new energy vehicles and weak spot procurement. The over - supply pattern in the industry remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis provides short - term support for the market, the reduction in positions and trading volume indicates market doubts about the sustainability of the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend after a rise and fall. The upside is limited by insufficient spot acceptance and inventory pressure, and the downside is affected by repeated fluctuations in capital sentiment. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On July 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The basis rose to - 1,960 yuan/ton, with the near - month price still in a discount structure. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94% to 342,146 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 24.69% to 764,028 lots, indicating a slight decline in market activity. [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory in the Industry Chain**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62%, with a slight release of production capacity. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable. The prices of power battery materials were differentiated, with lithium iron phosphate rising and ternary materials slightly falling. From July 1 - 6, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 11% month - on - month, and downstream enterprises had weak spot procurement willingness. Lithium carbonate inventory increased to 140,793 physical tons, up 1.77% week - on - week, with continuous inventory accumulation for four weeks, and the fundamental over - supply pressure continued. [2] - **Market Summary**: The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis supports the market in the short term, the reduction in positions and trading volume reflects market doubts about the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend, with risks of correction after the ebb of sentiment. [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes on July 15**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.27% to 66,660 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 26.87% to - 1,960 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94%, and the trading volume decreased by 24.69%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.41% to 64,700 yuan/ton. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable, while the price of lithium iron phosphate increased and that of ternary materials decreased. [5] - **Other Price and Data Changes**: The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 62%, and the inventory increased by 1.77% to 140,793 physical tons. The prices of some battery cells had slight changes. [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures market's irrational fluctuations continued, and downstream enterprises had low acceptance of current prices, with weak procurement demand. Upstream lithium salt enterprises had tentative price - adjustment measures, and actual transactions were mainly dominated by traders. Future price trends depend on both supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment. [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From July 1 - 6, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 135,000 units, a 21% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 56.7%. The new energy vehicle wholesale was 125,000 units, a 31% year - on - year increase and a 0% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. [7] - **Industry News**: - On July 4, Tibet Geermu Mining's subsidiary's invested company received a construction permit for a lithium - boron mining project, which is beneficial for expanding production capacity. [8][9] - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned a technical upgrade of its lithium salt production line, with a total investment of about 120.7 million yuan and a 6 - month shutdown for renovation. [9] - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, with a planned annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax. [9]