Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook due to easing inflation and rising commodity prices [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data has exceeded market expectations, but the reliability of new inflation and employment data may be limited due to the recent government shutdown. Precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile, with continued demand for gold as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties. Silver prices have recently surged past $65 per ounce, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints [3][4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for copper concentrate has been set at $0 per ton for 2026, indicating a significant reduction in smelting fees and increasing expectations for production cuts in copper smelting [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that overseas production cut expectations are strengthening, particularly with the announcement of maintenance shutdowns at major aluminum smelting facilities, which, combined with domestic inventory reductions, is expected to support aluminum prices [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **View 1**: U.S. CPI and employment data may lack credibility, leading to volatile precious metal prices. Gold is expected to maintain its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while silver prices are supported by supply-demand imbalances [3]. - **View 2**: New copper concentrate long-term contract prices are set low, increasing expectations for smelting production cuts, which may support higher copper prices [3]. - **View 3**: Strengthening overseas production cut expectations and ongoing domestic inventory reductions are likely to push aluminum prices higher [4]. Company Insights - **Company Activity**: Luoyang Molybdenum plans to acquire South American gold mines, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [10]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The report recommends stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, as well as copper and aluminum stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [11]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Lithium Market**: The recovery progress of the Jiangxi lithium mine may be slower than expected, leading to upward pressure on lithium prices due to supply tightness [12]. - **Cobalt Prices**: Cobalt salt prices have been rising, supported by slow export approval processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to tighter supply conditions [13][14]. - **Company Activity**: Tianqi Lithium's expansion project is progressing, which will enhance its production capacity and improve profitability [15]. Aluminum Industry Data Tracking - **Production and Inventory**: The report tracks significant data on aluminum production, inventory levels, and profit margins, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports price stability [22][44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the essence of new materials trading lies in the dual impact of future demand expectations and liquidity [3] - The value proposition includes a focus on respecting cycles and differences while also uncovering industry expectation discrepancies to reverse market biases [3] - The annual representative work highlights the importance of these insights in navigating the market [3] Group 2 - The report referenced is titled "Lithium Cobalt Industry Research Framework" and was published on August 13, 2025 [8] - It is authored by Yu Jiayi, a chief analyst in the non-ferrous metals sector [8] - A significant risk mentioned is the potential underperformance of new energy vehicle sales growth and the risks associated with battery technology iterations [8]

Macro - Japan's ultra-long bond yields have risen significantly due to increased market concerns over bond supply shocks from fiscal expansion influenced by tariffs [1] - Demand for ultra-long bonds from domestic institutions has been weak since 2025, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The recent cold reception of Japanese government bond auctions has exacerbated negative market sentiment [1] - Future attention should be paid to upcoming government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan, and the results of the July Senate elections [1] Fixed Income - Japan's 20-year government bond auction showed a rapid decline in market demand, reaching a new low since 2012, with the auction tail spread hitting the highest level since 1987 [4] - The yield on Japan's 20-year bonds surged to 2.539%, the highest since 2000, while the 10-year and 30-year yields also reached record highs [4] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio was 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, with rising interest rates further increasing debt servicing costs [5] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing reduction in bond purchases necessitates finding new buyers for government bonds [5] - Rising inflation and interest rate pressures in Japan make long-term bond yields difficult to decrease [5] - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields poses risks of fiscal strain, losses for bondholders, and potential spillover effects on global bond markets [6] - The impact of rising yields on China's bond market is expected to be limited due to differing inflation environments and fiscal conditions [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The lithium and cobalt sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing signs of stabilization despite high inventory levels [8] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a weekly average of 61,600 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week [9] - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious, leading to a weak overall market [10] - Phosphate iron lithium and ternary material prices have also seen declines, with phosphate iron lithium averaging 30,300 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [11]