行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251215-20251219） 推荐（维持） 通胀放缓，商品价格继续上行 观点：我们认为美国通胀数据好于市场预期，但考虑"停摆"的联邦政府部门 11 月 13 日才陆续开始恢复工作，新的通胀和就业等数据可能存在误差，市场可 信度相对有限，贵金属价格仍维持震荡运行，从失业率看劳动力市场在持续降 温。展望后续，我们仍看好贵金属表现，在全球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的 情况下，黄金的避险需求和投资需求或持续存在，央行购金需求仍有上行空间； 而白银受工业需求爆发、库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向，本周白银价格首次突 破 65 美元/盎司，再创历史新高，考虑白银供需连续 5 年存在缺口以及低库存 支撑，且当前白银已被列入美国关键矿产清单，白银 ETF 需求的持续大增进 一步或加剧现货市场挤兑担忧，白银价格更具弹性。 行业观点 2：新的铜精矿年度长单价格持续低位增大冶炼减产预期 事件：根据 12 月 20 日 SMM 新闻，中国冶炼厂与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜 精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。2025 年铜精矿加 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the essence of new materials trading lies in the dual impact of future demand expectations and liquidity [3] - The value proposition includes a focus on respecting cycles and differences while also uncovering industry expectation discrepancies to reverse market biases [3] - The annual representative work highlights the importance of these insights in navigating the market [3] Group 2 - The report referenced is titled "Lithium Cobalt Industry Research Framework" and was published on August 13, 2025 [8] - It is authored by Yu Jiayi, a chief analyst in the non-ferrous metals sector [8] - A significant risk mentioned is the potential underperformance of new energy vehicle sales growth and the risks associated with battery technology iterations [8]

Macro - Japan's ultra-long bond yields have risen significantly due to increased market concerns over bond supply shocks from fiscal expansion influenced by tariffs [1] - Demand for ultra-long bonds from domestic institutions has been weak since 2025, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The recent cold reception of Japanese government bond auctions has exacerbated negative market sentiment [1] - Future attention should be paid to upcoming government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan, and the results of the July Senate elections [1] Fixed Income - Japan's 20-year government bond auction showed a rapid decline in market demand, reaching a new low since 2012, with the auction tail spread hitting the highest level since 1987 [4] - The yield on Japan's 20-year bonds surged to 2.539%, the highest since 2000, while the 10-year and 30-year yields also reached record highs [4] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio was 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, with rising interest rates further increasing debt servicing costs [5] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing reduction in bond purchases necessitates finding new buyers for government bonds [5] - Rising inflation and interest rate pressures in Japan make long-term bond yields difficult to decrease [5] - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields poses risks of fiscal strain, losses for bondholders, and potential spillover effects on global bond markets [6] - The impact of rising yields on China's bond market is expected to be limited due to differing inflation environments and fiscal conditions [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The lithium and cobalt sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing signs of stabilization despite high inventory levels [8] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a weekly average of 61,600 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week [9] - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious, leading to a weak overall market [10] - Phosphate iron lithium and ternary material prices have also seen declines, with phosphate iron lithium averaging 30,300 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [11]