王华表示，全球在能源安全、产业链安全的大趋势下，发达国家通过财政扩张加速再工业化进程落地， AI科技革命驱动新基建资本开支增加，为大宗商品价格提供了有力支撑。此外，市场预期美联储在 2026年仍将有2至3次降息，进一步推动了全球货币宽松的预期。在此背景下，商品价格有望获得宏观层 面和行业基本面的双重利好。特别是铜、铝行业，在供给偏紧与需求稳健增长的驱动下，价格中枢有望 持续上移，为投资者带来良好的配置机会。此外，报告还强调了贵金属的长期配置价值，特别是黄金在 全球秩序不稳定及债务增长背景下，作为避险资产的功能日益凸显。 王华认为，中国中央经济工作会议对供给侧改革的深化及物价回升的关注，为中游周期板块探明了底 部、迎来了修复空间。通过"反内卷"政策约束，结合需求侧的托底政策，周期行业的供需格局有望得到 显著改善。例如，新能源、化工等行业，而地产销售的加速探底，其产业链的利空因素逐渐递减，行业 有望在年底迎来修复的可能性。 正启新程——平安基金2026年投资策略会于1月7日举行。平安鑫利混合基金经理王华在分享《周期致远 循势而行：2026年周期板块投资展望》主题报告时指出，随着2026年全球进入财政与货币政策的双 ...

简单说，2025年涨的是"预期"和"估值"，2026年要看"业绩"和"盈利"能不能接得上棒。全年很可能呈现 出 "指数温和震荡向上，但行业内部激烈分化"的鲜明特征。普涨行情难了，抓对结构才是赚钱的关 键。 为什么敢这么判断？核心支撑在于企业赚钱能力的真实改善。市场普遍预计，2026年全部A股上市公司 的盈利增速有望回升到5%-8%的水平。这背后有两个强大引擎：一是全球制造业周期可能复苏，加上 国内政策推动工业品价格走出低谷；二是像人工智能、商业航天这些折腾了好几年的新兴产业，终于要 进入关键的业绩兑现期了，故事要开始见真章了。 各位股民朋友们，2025年的行情正式画上句号，你们是赚是亏？是踏空还是满仓？先来看一组震撼的数 据，感受一下什么叫"史诗级"的活跃市场：全年成交额突破了420万亿元，平均下来，每天都有超过1.7 万亿的真金白银在股市里翻滚博弈！ 指数上，上证指数全年上涨18.41%，并且在一年内6次冲上了4000点大关，虽然年末收在3968.84点，但 那股冲击的势头大家都感受到了。更猛的是创业板代表的成长方向，创业板指全年暴涨49.57%，几乎 涨了一半！行业更是冰火两重天：有色金属板块一骑绝尘，暴 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251215-20251219） 推荐（维持） 通胀放缓，商品价格继续上行 观点：我们认为美国通胀数据好于市场预期，但考虑"停摆"的联邦政府部门 11 月 13 日才陆续开始恢复工作，新的通胀和就业等数据可能存在误差，市场可 信度相对有限，贵金属价格仍维持震荡运行，从失业率看劳动力市场在持续降 温。展望后续，我们仍看好贵金属表现，在全球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的 情况下，黄金的避险需求和投资需求或持续存在，央行购金需求仍有上行空间； 而白银受工业需求爆发、库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向，本周白银价格首次突 破 65 美元/盎司，再创历史新高，考虑白银供需连续 5 年存在缺口以及低库存 支撑，且当前白银已被列入美国关键矿产清单，白银 ETF 需求的持续大增进 一步或加剧现货市场挤兑担忧，白银价格更具弹性。 行业观点 2：新的铜精矿年度长单价格持续低位增大冶炼减产预期 事件：根据 12 月 20 日 SMM 新闻，中国冶炼厂与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜 精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。2025 年铜精矿加 ...

今日早盘，A股市场窄幅震荡，昨日领涨的煤炭板块出现调整，机器人等科技题材则局部复苏，带动创 业板指相对强势。截至午间休市，上证指数报3879.52点，涨0.04%；深证成指、创业板指分别上涨 0.35%和0.76%。 人形机器人概念早盘掀涨停潮，海昌新材、固高科技、华伍股份收获20%幅度涨停。有色金属板块持续 升温，铜、铝个股早盘强势，洛阳钼业刷新历史新高，西部矿业、江西铜业等跟涨。上期所沪铜期货主 力合约早盘涨超2%，盘中触及91400元/吨创历史新高；沪铝主力合约涨超1%，创2022年3月以来新高。 机器人概念爆发 贝恩公司近日发布的《未来已来，智驱新程——全球人形机器人产业趋势洞察》报告预计，到2035年， 全球人形机器人年销量有望达到600万台，市场规模突破1200亿美元；在乐观场景下，销量甚至或超过 1000万台，市场规模达到2600亿美元。 多股"20cm"涨停 早盘，机器人概念掀涨停潮。截至午盘，海昌新材、固高科技、华伍股份收获20%幅度涨停，恒而达、 德马科技、江苏雷利等涨超10%，四川金顶、骏亚科技等同样涨停。 港股机器人概念股也多数走强。截至午盘，三花智控涨超9%、极智嘉-W涨超5%、越疆 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 今日早盘，A股市场窄幅震荡，昨日领涨的煤炭板块出现调整，机器人等科技题材则局部复苏，带 动创业板指相对强势。截至午间休市，上证指数报3879.52点，涨0.04%；深证成指、创业板指分 别上涨0.35%和0.76%。 | A股指数 | | 更多 > | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3879.52 | 13000.88 | 1395.62 | | +1.52 +0.04% | +45.63 +0.35% | +3.14 +0.23% | | 创业板指 | 沪深300 | 科创综指 | | 3059.76 | 4543.93 | 1562.24 | | +22.97 +0.76% | +12.88 +0.28% | +9.70 +0.62% | A股主要股指早盘表现 人形机器人概念早盘掀涨停潮，海昌新材、固高科技、华伍股份收获20%幅度涨停。有色金属板块 持续升温，铜、铝个股早盘强势，洛阳钼业刷新历史新高，西部矿业、江西铜业等跟涨。上期所沪 铜期货主力合约早盘涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that supply and demand improvements may become the main theme for the metal industry in 2026 [1] - Monetary easing and economic recovery phases are expected to trigger a convergence in the gold-silver ratio, with silver prices potentially rising stronger than gold in 2026 [1] - The supply-demand landscape for copper and aluminum industries in 2026 is anticipated to be characterized by a supply shortage [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the A-share market, with sectors like electronics and semiconductors leading while others like media and internet lag behind [6][10][11] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience, with industrial profits showing a slight increase year-to-date despite a decline in October [9][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming policy meetings that may catalyze market movements and suggests maintaining a balanced investment strategy [12][38] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,875.26 with a slight increase of 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% [4] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 15.86 and 47.74 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [10][11] International Market Performance - Major international indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, reflecting a broader trend of market volatility [5] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the growth in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to continue driving market performance [6][10] - The livestock farming industry is projected to stabilize in 2026 due to a decrease in breeding sow inventory, which may lead to improved pricing [18] - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar power, is undergoing a transformation with increased marketization and a focus on capacity optimization [19][20] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong growth potential such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, and renewable energy [12][20] - The report suggests that the media sector is experiencing a recovery driven by improved policy environments and AI applications, making it a potential area for investment [24][25][26] Economic Data Insights - In October, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 5.5%, but the cumulative profit for the year showed a 1.9% increase [9][13] - The report notes that the overall economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, supported by government fiscal measures [13][14] Sector-Specific Strategies - The livestock sector is highlighted for its potential recovery in pricing due to supply adjustments, while the animal health and seed industries are also seen as having growth opportunities [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies within the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and storage technologies [20][21][22]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various industries, with a focus on the capital market's role in supporting economic growth and innovation [5][19][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and investment in emerging industries, particularly in technology and infrastructure [5][19][24] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,836.77 with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12,585.08 [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.77 and 46.14, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][14] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.45% and 0.15% respectively [4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.38% to 25,220.02, reflecting broader market challenges [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines various industry strategies, including the focus on financing coordination and the continuation of industry prosperity [6][19] - The copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their strong demand and pricing stability, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand from green energy initiatives [20][21] - The AI and semiconductor industries are projected to experience significant growth, driven by advancements in technology and increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [24][31] Financial Sector Insights - The securities industry is expected to maintain a strong performance, with a projected increase in equity financing and stable brokerage revenues [18][19] - The report notes that the first three quarters of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of listed securities firms, with revenues up 42.55% year-on-year [17][18] Emerging Industries - The report indicates that the ice and snow industry in China is set to exceed 1 trillion yuan in scale, reflecting the growth potential in niche markets [5][8] - The focus on new energy vehicles and related infrastructure is expected to drive demand for lithium battery equipment, with significant investment opportunities identified [28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the copper and aluminum sectors, as well as those involved in AI and semiconductor technologies, due to their strong growth prospects [20][24][31] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Zijin Mining, Yunnan Aluminum, and leading AI firms such as Hikvision and Huya [20][24][36]

Market Overview - Major indices in China opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.36%, and ChiNext Index up 0.58% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4023.88 points, with a trading volume of 506 million and a total transaction value of 76.12 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index was at 13476.25 points, with 7247 transactions and a total transaction value of 102.10 billion [2] - The NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.25%, with notable gains in companies like Xpeng Motors (up over 16%) and Baidu (up over 5%) [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Construction Investment forecasts a bullish trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly in new productivity sectors [4] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates further growth in the copper and aluminum industries in Q4, supported by improved macro expectations and potential increases in market liquidity due to Federal Reserve policies [5] - The lithium industry is expected to see profit improvements in Q4, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector and the upcoming end of tax exemptions for electric vehicles in China [5] Automotive Sector - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the automotive industry's cyclical growth and the importance of overseas expansion, with a focus on smart driving and robotics as key growth areas [6] - The automotive sector is expected to experience a shift in investment focus towards technology-driven applications, particularly in commercial vehicles and AI-related innovations [6] AI Industry - Huaxi Securities notes that the AI industry is entering a phase of rapid iteration and competition, with applications expected to delve into more specialized and in-depth scenarios, including education and healthcare [7]