❤①新年好，本篇内容较多，照旧我们把重要结论放在前面：看好贵金属>能源金属>战略金属=工业金属。以今 日港股为例，市场主要还是对地缘和关税反应，2.23日港股有色板块全线大涨：香港有色金属指数+4.51%，居港 股行业涨幅前列。个股普涨、放量上行，资金流入明显，呈现贵金属领涨、基本金属/新能源金属共振格局。 其中： 1. 黄金/贵金属（最强） 潼关黄金+12%、赤峰黄金+7%+、紫金黄金国际 中国黄金国际+6%+、紫金矿业 万国黄金 招金矿业+5%+ -核心：地缘避险+金价修复+央行购金+降息预期 2. 锂/新能源金属（次强） 赣锋锂业+8%+、天齐锂业+3%+ -核心：节前持续去库+需求预期较好+板块估值修复+大盘反弹 3. 铜铝/基本金属（跟涨） 五矿资源+6%+、江西铜业+4%+、中国宏桥、洛阳钼业+2%–3% -核心：关税扰动暂缓+油价上行+经济复苏预期+美元走弱 标的选择上，经历了春节前的调整，很多标的又出现较好买点，估值差异并不是非常大 1贵金属：1）黄金 紫金黄金国际、山东黄金、招金矿业、万国黄金集团、中国黄金国际、山金国际等2）白银 盛达资源、兴业银锡等 2能源金属：1）核心弹性标的：国城矿业 ...

#如何安抚我们受伤的心灵？ ——风险是涨出来的 #周五的暴跌是一记重拳，直接将大家的热情从气温50度干到零下，犹如直接从海南飞到了黑河，该如何应对应该 是大家最关心的问题？ #周五的暴跌是一记重拳，直接将大家的热情从气温50度干到零下，犹如直接从海南飞到了黑河，该如何应对应该 是大家最关心的问题？ #风险都是涨出来的：我一直认为风险是涨出来，很多人问我为什么跌了，找了各种理由，包括新的美联储主席是 不是下一个沃尔克等等，这些我认为都是事后的解释，或者片面的理解。 我理解这轮的回调本 #风险都是涨出来的：我一直认为风险是涨出来，很多人问我为什么跌了，找了各种理由，包括新的美联储主席是 不是下一个沃尔克等等，这些我认为都是事后的解释，或者片面的理解。 #如何安抚我们受伤的心灵？ ——风险是涨出来的 我理解这轮的回调本质是前期急涨、快涨的反向，有急涨就会有急跌，只是提前没办法预判具体什么时候回落而 已。 #价格回落后，如何安抚受伤的心灵？ 价格一旦回落，各种担心就会有。 回落后如何安抚受伤的心灵？ （1）找出这轮的周期上行的 核心要素，去判断是不是有重大变化？ （2）价格中枢的上移是不是就只能价格一路上涨？ （3） ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant expansion in the scale and positioning of equity funds as the 2025 quarterly reports are disclosed, with over 3,300 funds having completed their disclosures by January 21 [1] - More than 40% of actively managed equity funds reported positive returns for the quarter, outperforming benchmarks, driven by a structural market rally influenced by debt reduction policies, expectations of preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and marginal improvements in corporate earnings [1] - The technology and non-ferrous metals sectors led the market, contributing to substantial excess returns for funds heavily invested in these areas [1] Fund Performance and Trends - The fund managed by Ren Jie, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, achieved a cumulative return of 233.29% for the year, with a total scale reaching 15.468 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.26% [2] - A total of 45 funds doubled their scale in a single quarter, with some "mini funds" experiencing scale increases exceeding 40 times, showcasing a typical characteristic of smaller funds being more agile [3] - The rapid scale increase of these funds is attributed to three common factors: small initial scale allowing for performance elasticity, concentrated industry allocation focusing on AI computing power, semiconductor equipment, and copper-aluminum sectors, and decisive actions by fund managers to quickly build positions at the onset of market rallies [3] Challenges and Adjustments - The significant scale growth poses management challenges, leading some funds to limit purchases to control rapid growth and avoid strategy capacity exceeding limits, which could dilute returns [4] - In terms of industry allocation, the technology sector remains the most consensus-driven core line among fund managers, with some funds reducing positions in previously high-performing stocks that have reached reasonable valuation levels, while increasing allocations to second-tier stocks and upstream equipment materials [5] Specific Fund Adjustments - For instance, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A reduced its stock position from 94.41% to 80.34%, a decrease of over 14 percentage points, showing caution towards the core stock "Yizhongtian" [5] - The fund manager Feng Ludan's China Europe Digital Economy also exhibited similar adjustments, slightly reducing stock positions while increasing holdings in Dongshan Precision and Shennan Circuit, and significantly reducing positions in Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [6] Investment Strategy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing "invisible heavy stocks" in quarterly reports, as the real insights may lie in the 11th to 20th largest holdings, which can indicate a shift in fund manager strategies [8] - Tracking changes in "institutional investor share ratios" can serve as a barometer for smart money, with significant increases indicating recognition from long-term funds, which can stabilize future fund redemptions and enhance net value stability [8] - The operational analysis section of the reports is crucial for understanding fund managers' strategies, with key phrases indicating recognition of misjudgments, warnings about current valuations, and adjustments in holdings [9]

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the global economy is entering a dual easing cycle of fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, which will create new development opportunities for cyclical sectors [1] - The report highlights that developed countries are accelerating their re-industrialization processes through fiscal expansion, driven by trends in energy security and industrial chain security, which will support commodity prices [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement 2 to 3 interest rate cuts in 2026, further promoting global monetary easing [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in the copper and aluminum industries due to tight supply and steady demand growth, presenting good investment opportunities [1] - The long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, is highlighted as increasingly significant in the context of global instability and rising debt, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Chinese Central Economic Work Conference's focus on deepening supply-side reforms and price recovery is seen as a positive signal for the midstream cyclical sector, indicating a potential bottoming out and recovery space [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy constraints combined with demand-side support policies are expected to significantly improve the supply-demand dynamics in cyclical industries such as new energy and chemicals [2] - The acceleration of real estate sales is seen as reducing negative factors in the industry chain, suggesting a potential for recovery by the end of the year [2] - Overall, the cyclical sector in 2026 is anticipated to benefit from the dual expectations of "expansive fiscal" and "expansive monetary" policies globally, along with domestic policy support, providing numerous investment opportunities [2]

Market Overview - The total trading volume in 2025 exceeded 420 trillion yuan, averaging over 17 trillion yuan daily, indicating a highly active market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41% throughout the year, with six instances of surpassing the 4000-point mark, closing at 3968.84 points [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 49.57%, reflecting a strong growth in the technology sector [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a remarkable increase of 94.73%, followed by the telecommunications sector with an 84.75% rise [1] - Other sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery also saw gains exceeding 40% [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage sector declined by 9.69%, and the coal sector fell by 5.27% [1] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a reliance on financial and real estate sectors to a focus on technology and high-end manufacturing, driven by a "technology revolution" and "resource revaluation" [1] - The driving forces behind the market include the AI industry chain explosion, improved corporate earnings, and stable investments from state-owned funds and insurance companies [1] 2026 Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with a shift in focus from "expectations" and "valuations" to "performance" and "profitability" [2] - A projected earnings growth rate for all A-share listed companies is anticipated to rebound to 5%-8% [2] - Key drivers for this growth include a potential global manufacturing cycle recovery and the maturation of emerging industries like AI and commercial aerospace [2] Valuation and Funding - The overall market valuation is around 22 times earnings, which is not considered cheap but is not viewed as a bubble in the context of historical and economic transformation [3] - Continuous inflow of funds is expected as residents shift investments from real estate and savings to the stock market, supported by significant insurance fund allocation and ETF purchases [3] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to experience distinct phases throughout 2026, with a focus on technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors in Q1, followed by performance verification in Q2 [4] - Q3 may see a balanced market style, with stable performance in consumer sectors, while Q4 will likely focus on high dividend stocks and stable earnings [4] Sector Opportunities - Structural opportunities exist in the consumer sector, particularly in essential consumption, which remains stable and offers high dividends [5] - The performance of discretionary consumption sectors will largely depend on supportive policies for real estate [5] Key Investment Themes - The primary investment themes for 2026 include: 1. Technology-driven opportunities, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace [6] 2. High-end manufacturing with a focus on robotics and global expansion [6] 3. Cyclical sectors benefiting from new demand, such as industrial metals and chemicals [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook due to easing inflation and rising commodity prices [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. inflation data has exceeded market expectations, but the reliability of new inflation and employment data may be limited due to the recent government shutdown. Precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile, with continued demand for gold as a safe haven amid global economic uncertainties. Silver prices have recently surged past $65 per ounce, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints [3][4]. - The report notes that the annual long-term contract price for copper concentrate has been set at $0 per ton for 2026, indicating a significant reduction in smelting fees and increasing expectations for production cuts in copper smelting [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that overseas production cut expectations are strengthening, particularly with the announcement of maintenance shutdowns at major aluminum smelting facilities, which, combined with domestic inventory reductions, is expected to support aluminum prices [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **View 1**: U.S. CPI and employment data may lack credibility, leading to volatile precious metal prices. Gold is expected to maintain its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while silver prices are supported by supply-demand imbalances [3]. - **View 2**: New copper concentrate long-term contract prices are set low, increasing expectations for smelting production cuts, which may support higher copper prices [3]. - **View 3**: Strengthening overseas production cut expectations and ongoing domestic inventory reductions are likely to push aluminum prices higher [4]. Company Insights - **Company Activity**: Luoyang Molybdenum plans to acquire South American gold mines, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [10]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The report recommends stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, as well as copper and aluminum stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [11]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Lithium Market**: The recovery progress of the Jiangxi lithium mine may be slower than expected, leading to upward pressure on lithium prices due to supply tightness [12]. - **Cobalt Prices**: Cobalt salt prices have been rising, supported by slow export approval processes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to tighter supply conditions [13][14]. - **Company Activity**: Tianqi Lithium's expansion project is progressing, which will enhance its production capacity and improve profitability [15]. Aluminum Industry Data Tracking - **Production and Inventory**: The report tracks significant data on aluminum production, inventory levels, and profit margins, indicating a tightening supply situation that supports price stability [22][44].

今日早盘，A股市场窄幅震荡，昨日领涨的煤炭板块出现调整，机器人等科技题材则局部复苏，带动创 业板指相对强势。截至午间休市，上证指数报3879.52点，涨0.04%；深证成指、创业板指分别上涨 0.35%和0.76%。 人形机器人概念早盘掀涨停潮，海昌新材、固高科技、华伍股份收获20%幅度涨停。有色金属板块持续 升温，铜、铝个股早盘强势，洛阳钼业刷新历史新高，西部矿业、江西铜业等跟涨。上期所沪铜期货主 力合约早盘涨超2%，盘中触及91400元/吨创历史新高；沪铝主力合约涨超1%，创2022年3月以来新高。 机器人概念爆发 贝恩公司近日发布的《未来已来，智驱新程——全球人形机器人产业趋势洞察》报告预计，到2035年， 全球人形机器人年销量有望达到600万台，市场规模突破1200亿美元；在乐观场景下，销量甚至或超过 1000万台，市场规模达到2600亿美元。 多股"20cm"涨停 早盘，机器人概念掀涨停潮。截至午盘，海昌新材、固高科技、华伍股份收获20%幅度涨停，恒而达、 德马科技、江苏雷利等涨超10%，四川金顶、骏亚科技等同样涨停。 港股机器人概念股也多数走强。截至午盘，三花智控涨超9%、极智嘉-W涨超5%、越疆 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 今日早盘，A股市场窄幅震荡，昨日领涨的煤炭板块出现调整，机器人等科技题材则局部复苏，带 动创业板指相对强势。截至午间休市，上证指数报3879.52点，涨0.04%；深证成指、创业板指分 别上涨0.35%和0.76%。 | A股指数 | | 更多 > | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3879.52 | 13000.88 | 1395.62 | | +1.52 +0.04% | +45.63 +0.35% | +3.14 +0.23% | | 创业板指 | 沪深300 | 科创综指 | | 3059.76 | 4543.93 | 1562.24 | | +22.97 +0.76% | +12.88 +0.28% | +9.70 +0.62% | A股主要股指早盘表现 人形机器人概念早盘掀涨停潮，海昌新材、固高科技、华伍股份收获20%幅度涨停。有色金属板块 持续升温，铜、铝个股早盘强势，洛阳钼业刷新历史新高，西部矿业、江西铜业等跟涨。上期所沪 铜期货主力合约早盘涨 ...