Group 1 - The Nikkei average index rose significantly, reaching 50,337.36 points, marking a historic breakthrough above 50,000 points, driven by expectations surrounding the economic policies of the new Kishida administration and external factors like anticipated interest rate cuts in the US and the expansion of the AI market [2][4]. - The Kishida administration's approval rating stands at 74%, significantly higher than the previous administration's 51%, which is perceived positively by the market as it suggests greater stability for the government [4]. - The "Japan Weeks" event highlighted the shift from savings to investment in Japan, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki noting that the proportion of cash and deposits in personal financial assets remains high compared to the US, indicating substantial room for change [4]. Group 2 - AI and semiconductor-related stocks, such as Advantest and SoftBank Group, contributed to the market's upward movement, while defense-related stocks saw increased buying ahead of the upcoming US-Japan summit [5]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with market consensus suggesting potential rate hikes could occur in January or as early as December [5]. - The external environment is favorable, with the US CPI for September coming in below expectations, raising the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the US, and easing trade tensions between the US and China, which supports investor sentiment [6].

Market Overview - The Nikkei average index closed at 46,847 points on October 14, down 1,241 points (2.58%) from the previous weekend, primarily due to political uncertainty following the Komeito party's exit from the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and concerns over US-China tensions [2][4]. Political Impact - The exit of the Komeito party has led to increased political uncertainty, causing investors to withdraw from the market. The volatility index (Nikkei Volatility Index, VI) reached around 34, the highest level since April 22, indicating heightened market anxiety [4]. - Analysts express concerns about the potential for a change in government if opposition parties unite, which could lead to a lack of clarity in policy execution and delays in investments in growth sectors, further impacting the Japanese stock market [4]. Stock Performance - Stocks that were previously bought during the "Takaichi trade" following the appointment of LDP President Sanae Takaichi saw significant declines, with defense-related IHI shares dropping over 3% and cybersecurity stocks like NEC falling more than 4% [4]. - Despite the overall market decline, some stocks showed resilience, with Yaskawa Electric rising by 7% amid speculation that the exit of the Komeito party would not significantly impact corporate performance [5]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing market assumption that the LDP will continue to govern as a minority party, leading to expectations of limited market declines despite potential operational gridlock [5]. - Some analysts noted stronger-than-expected buying demand, suggesting that the broader fiscal expansion framework would remain unchanged even after the Komeito's exit from the coalition [5].

普来仕环球及日本股票投资组合专家Daniel Hurley分享其对日本股市的观点。自4月解放日后，日本股 市录得显著升幅，多个因素推动市场表现。首要及最重要的因素是日本与美国达成的贸易协议，关税定 于15%，这远低于此前威胁加征的25%，更令市场感意外的是，占美国对日贸易逆差八成的汽车业亦获 纳入协议范围。 另一方面，市场憧憬美联储于今秋减息，料可利好风险资产表现。日本作为高度开放及具周期性的经济 体系，可望受惠于利率下调环境。 此外，日本本土经济正摆脱失落年代的零通胀及零增长困局，通胀压力逐步形成，经济增长步伐加快。 预料此转变将刺激储户及投资者将资产由现金及定息工具转移至股票市场。值得一提的是，自2012年起 持续改善的企业管治改革正全速推进，大规模股份回购计划陆续展开。这为能够识别具吸引力目标的投 资者创造庞大机遇，有望带来可观回报。 尽管如此，相对历史水平，日本股票的估值并未见过度扩张，较环球其他市场仍见吸引。普来仕对日本 市场未来三至五年维持建设性看法，认为仍存在重大投资机遇。除上述因素外，日本在国防及半导体产 业的结构性投资方面具优势。 企业管治改革趋势正影响股市各大领域，但部分行业的改革意欲明显 ...