Core Viewpoint - Japan's ruling party plans to raise approximately 1 trillion yen (about 6.5 billion USD) annually to support the development of advanced semiconductor manufacturing and AI ecosystems, aiming to regain its status as a semiconductor manufacturing leader and become an AI superpower comparable to the US and China [1][4]. Funding Strategy - Starting from the new fiscal year in April, most government funding will be sourced through regular budgets rather than supplementary budgets, marking a shift from previous years [1][2]. - This change is expected to provide a more stable funding source without disrupting market stability [1][2]. Government Investment - Since the new semiconductor revival strategy was established in 2021, Japan has allocated approximately 5.7 trillion yen to support domestic semiconductor and AI sectors, primarily through supplementary budgets [1][2]. - In the previous year's supplementary budget, about 1.5 trillion yen was allocated for semiconductor and AI support, part of a larger commitment of over 10 trillion yen for these technology sectors [2]. Key Players - Approximately 1.7 trillion yen of the allocated government funds has been directed to Rapidus Corp., which aims to achieve mass production of cutting-edge 2nm chips by 2027 [2][3]. - Rapidus is positioned as Japan's core player in advanced chip manufacturing, competing with TSMC in logic chip foundry services [2][3]. Industry Dynamics - The majority of the world's advanced AI chips are currently manufactured by TSMC, while Japan is increasing its support for domestic chip manufacturers to enhance their advanced process production capabilities [3]. - Rapidus, established in 2022, has received significant government financial backing and support from major Japanese companies, including Toyota and Sony, to develop 2nm chips for AI, autonomous driving, and quantum computing applications [3]. Economic Policy Context - The new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is expected to revive "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal stimulus and industrial support policies, which could positively impact Japan's domestic demand and core technology sectors [4][5]. - The anticipated continuation of Abenomics is seen as a long-term catalyst for the Japanese stock market, particularly benefiting technology stocks and sectors related to semiconductors and AI [5]. Historical Perspective - Japan's past missteps in technology investments have led to missed opportunities in key sectors like IT and the internet, prompting the current government to double down on semiconductor and AI technologies to secure a leading position in these critical fields [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1200 points, marking a historic first-time breach of the 50,000-point threshold, largely driven by the upcoming visit of U.S. President Trump and the economic policies of Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1212 points, a 2.46% increase, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose by 1.7% [4]. - Major companies such as SoftBank Group and Advantest saw their stocks rise over 6%, while Hitachi, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Itochu Corporation increased by over 2% [4]. - The South Korean stock market also saw gains, with the KOSPI index rising 2.6%, surpassing 4000 points for the first time, driven by significant increases in stocks like Hyundai Heavy Industries and SK Hynix [4]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Implications - Kishi Sanae's economic policies are seen as a continuation of "Abenomics," advocating for government intervention in the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies and maintaining an accommodative monetary policy [2][9]. - The Prime Minister's focus on "responsible active fiscal policy" aims to promote industries like artificial intelligence and provide support for low- and middle-income groups through local subsidies and energy assistance [9]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential impact of Kishi's policies on the independence of the Bank of Japan, especially in light of her previous criticisms of the central bank's interest rate hikes [10]. Group 3: U.S.-Japan Relations - Trump's visit is expected to cover a wide range of topics, including economic and security issues, with an emphasis on deepening the U.S.-Japan alliance [6][7]. - The meeting is viewed as a critical test for Kishi, as a successful outcome could solidify her early governance foundation and garner U.S. support for regional security policies [7]. - Trump is anticipated to press Japan to adhere to a previous agreement regarding tariffs and investments, which could impose a significant burden on Japan's economy, equating to nearly 10% of its annual GDP [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is increasingly losing its status as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising skepticism in the market, leading to a significant depreciation trend against the US dollar, reaching an eight-month low [1][2]. Group 1: Yen's Current Status - The yen's traditional role as a safe-haven currency is being questioned due to Japan's unique financial environment and political uncertainties, prompting investors to seek alternative hedging options like gold, silver, and the Swiss franc [1][2][5]. - The recent political developments, including the unexpected victory of a conservative candidate in Japan's ruling party election, have further exacerbated the yen's depreciation, with the exchange rate surpassing the critical 150 mark against the dollar [2][5]. - Historical patterns of yen appreciation during market turmoil are no longer reliable, as the yen has shown a negative correlation with the S&P 500 index during periods of risk asset sell-offs [2][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly reducing their net long positions in the yen, with a nearly 40% cut in net long positions by global asset managers since late April, while hedge funds are predominantly shorting the yen [6][8]. - Alternative hedging options, such as the Swiss franc, are gaining traction among professional traders, with the franc showing more reliable and cost-effective hedging properties compared to the yen [8]. - Gold has surged over 54% this year, driven by global uncertainties, and is viewed as a more favorable investment compared to the yen, with top investment firms predicting further increases in gold prices [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for the Yen - Despite the current challenges, the yen's long-term appeal as a defensive asset is not entirely diminished, as market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate policies continue to influence its value [9][10]. - The recent "Kishida trade" reflects market speculation on renewed fiscal stimulus and monetary easing under the new leadership, which has led to increased volatility in the financial markets [9][10]. - The yen's reliability as a safe-haven currency is being undermined by its increasing susceptibility to speculative capital flows, indicating a shift away from its historical role [9][10].

周一东京市场开盘后，日经225指数应声大涨超过4.7%，创下数月来最大单日涨幅，日本东证指数涨3%。 与此同时，日元兑美元汇率大幅走弱1.9%，至150这一备受关注的关键水平，而日元兑欧元汇率已跌至历史新低。 随着被视为已故日本首相安倍晋三门徒的高市早苗赢得执政党党首选举，日本金融市场正迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 高市早苗即将成为日本新任首相，市场预期她将重启以大规模财政刺激和超宽松货币政策为核心的经济议程，这迅速点燃了日本股市，并引发了外汇市场的剧 烈波动。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动，对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高，日本40年期国债收益率一度飙升15个基点至3.54%。 这些走势反映出投资者正在积极部署所谓的 "高市早苗交易"（Takaichi trade） 。华尔街见闻写道，市场普遍预期，高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场， 被视为已故首相安倍晋三的门徒。她呼吁保持宽松货币政策，认为日本央行不应加息。 交易员表示， "安倍经济学"时代的回归可能会进一步削弱日元、提振股市，并导致长期日本国债收益率大幅上升。 据美银美林策略师分析，高市早苗的胜选 可能导致日元走弱和日本国债收益率曲线的陡峭 ...

华尔街对美国政府关门、就业数据"放鸽子"是真不屑一顾 ！ 一边是风险资产美股、比特币创历史新高，另一边避险资产黄金再度攀新高，突破3900美元关口，最高上涨至每盎司3920.77美元，距离首次突破3800美元/ 盎司关口仅不到10天。 日本市场这边直接上演股债汇的剧烈波动，股市单日飙涨2000点，究竟发生了什么 ？ 黄金继续涨到根本停不下来！ 周一早盘，伦敦现货黄金升破3900美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及3920.77美元/盎司，再度站上历史新高点，距离首次突破3800关口，仅用时不到10天。 今年黄金走势异常凶猛，年内已飙升近50%，主要受地缘政治风险、美联储降息、美元走弱、全球央行持续购金等因素影响。 而最近几天，金价从10天时间从3800关口到3900美元，则主要是受到了美国政府关门危机的刺激。 当地时间10月5日，美国联邦政府停摆进入第五天，甚至连重要的9月非农数据都推迟发布。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特直言，如果美国总统特朗普认定结束政府停摆状态进行的谈判"毫无进展"，政府将开始大规模裁员。 然而缺失的经济数据随之而来的却是，股、币、金齐创新高的盛世繁景。 1 黄金突破3900关口 "存在一定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese financial market is rapidly pricing in the potential return of "Abenomics" following the election of new Prime Minister Kishi Takaichi, who is expected to implement large-scale fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, marking its largest single-day gain in months, while the Topix index rose by 3% [1]. - The Japanese yen weakened significantly against the US dollar by 1.5%, approaching the critical level of 150, and the yen also hit a historical low against the euro [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Expectations - Takaichi's economic policies are closely aligned with "Abenomics," emphasizing fiscal expansion and a right-leaning political stance, with a commitment to maintaining loose monetary policy [8][9]. - Takaichi has proposed measures to address inflation, including increased subsidies to local governments and the possibility of lowering the consumption tax [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Investors are preparing for potential fiscal expansion under Takaichi, with expectations that her policies will favor stocks but may introduce volatility in the bond and foreign exchange markets [12]. - The victory of Takaichi was unexpected for many investors who anticipated a more fiscally conservative approach from her competitor, Kizuna Koizumi [10]. Group 4: Bond Market Implications - Despite the positive sentiment in the stock market, the bond market faces pressure due to concerns over increased government debt from larger fiscal spending [13]. - Analysts warn that without a "safety net" for the issuance of additional Japanese government bonds, there could be selling pressure in the bond market, leading to a steeper yield curve [13]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The ascension of Takaichi opens a new trading paradigm, with market participants closely monitoring how she balances growth stimulation with long-term government debt control and her influence on the Bank of Japan's future policy direction [14].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi, a protégé of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is leading to expectations of a return to "Abenomics," characterized by large-scale fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy, which is rapidly influencing Japan's financial markets [1][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's election, the Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, marking its largest single-day gain in months, while the Topix index rose by 3% [1]. - The Japanese yen weakened significantly against the US dollar by 1.5%, approaching the critical level of 150, and the yen also hit a historical low against the euro [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Expectations - Takaichi's economic policy is heavily influenced by "Abenomics," advocating for fiscal expansion and a close alignment between government and the Bank of Japan, with a focus on demand-driven economic growth [9][10]. - She has expressed strong opposition to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which has led analysts to revise their expectations regarding potential rate increases in October [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are actively engaging in the "Takaichi trade," anticipating that her policies will weaken the yen, boost the stock market, and lead to a significant rise in long-term Japanese government bond yields [8][12]. - The market is preparing for potential fiscal expansion, with expectations that Takaichi will prioritize economic growth over strict fiscal discipline [10]. Group 4: Bond Market Implications - Despite the positive stock market response, the bond market faces pressure due to concerns that increased fiscal spending will necessitate more government bond issuance, raising Japan's debt burden [11]. - Analysts warn that without a "safety net" accompanying the issuance of new Japanese government bonds, there could be selling pressure on bonds, leading to a steeper yield curve [12].