全球供应链，究竟是链还是网？ 提出这个问题并不是在咬文嚼字。深入了解全球供应链的运行就会发现，搞清楚"是链还是网"对于当下 跨国贸易十分重要。 在供应链管理理论中，有一个叫作"牛鞭效应"的经典概念。它最早由麻省理工学院的杰·福雷斯特教授 在1961年提出。福雷斯特通过系统研究发现，即使在需求小幅变化的情况下，供应链上各个环节的波动 也会逐渐被放大，最终影响整条供应链。 那么当牛鞭效应发生在网络之中，又会发生什么呢？简而言之，就是放大，再放大，直到事态走向不可 预知。 牛鞭效应的形成机制大体可归纳为信息不对称、缺乏协调机制、过度反应和过度调整等因素。在链式传 递中，4个因素虽然交织影响，但依旧遵循线性原理，即便波动被放大，但影响依旧局限在某一条产业 链中。但当众多产业链集结成网，波动就会扩散开来，并以指数级别相互作用，最终导致整张网络的震 荡。此时，受影响的就不再是一家企业、一个产业，而是全球经济。 理解了这一点就能明白，为什么全球供应链专家、香港中文大学商学院终身教授吴靖会在其新作《全球 供应链超级趋势》中，用了整整一个章节来阐述国家间供应链网络的形成过程。 在吴靖看来，当人们讨论全球供应链的时候，实际上是在 ...

Core Insights - Dubai Industrial City has achieved significant growth since early 2024, with the number of resident companies increasing by over 10% year-on-year, surpassing 1,100 by the end of the year [2] - The number of operational factories has risen by over 16%, exceeding 350, indicating Dubai's strong appeal in attracting industrial investments [2] - Over 1.7 billion dirhams (approximately 3.34 billion RMB) in investments have been attracted in the past 12 months, focusing on key economic sectors such as food and beverage, heavy equipment, energy solutions, automotive, and light industry [2] - The food and beverage sector alone attracted over 350 million dirhams (approximately 687 million RMB) in investments in 2024, reinforcing its strategic importance in meeting local and regional market demands [2] - Future investment directions include infrastructure upgrades, power plant construction, labor accommodation expansion, and the introduction of new industrial land [2][3] Industry Development - Dubai Industrial City aims to support the UAE's industrial localization goals by creating a sustainable and integrated business environment, thereby increasing the industrial contribution to the national GDP [3] - Established in 2003, Dubai Industrial City is designed to attract global investors and promote the diversification of the UAE's industrial sector [3] - An expansion project was announced in May 2024, planning to add approximately 1.29 million square meters to further enhance local manufacturing capabilities [3]