[Table_Authors] 韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 [Table_Title] 供强需弱，明年"投资于人"或可期待 [宏Ta观ble经_R济eportDate] | 深度报告 | 2025.12.26 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Summary] [Table首_O创th证erR券ep宏or观t]经济分析报告：美联 储决策迷雾未散，市场波动加大 社融数据不及预期 首创证券宏观经济分析报告：AI 分 歧加剧，仍需边走边看 11 月经济数据表现整体呈现"供强需弱"。11 月工业增加值当月同比 放缓至+4.8%，但年内累计增速仍保持韧性。1-11 月固定资产投资累计 同比增速较 10 月下滑 0.9pct 至-2.6%，为 2020 年 7 月以来新低。11 月 社零当月同比录得+1.3%，不及 Wind 一致预期+2.93%和前值+2.9%。 相关研究 首创证券周报：消费股表现回暖， 生产：今年以来工业生产保持韧性，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The province experienced a 7.5% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from January to November, with project investment decreasing by 3.7% when excluding real estate development, while private investment in projects saw a slight increase of 0.2% [1] Investment Trends - Investment in basic living-related sectors such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, and entertainment showed strong growth, with agricultural and food processing industries seeing investments rise by 17.9% and 44.5% respectively [1] - The textile and apparel industry experienced a significant investment increase of 39.6%, while furniture and automotive manufacturing investments grew by 5.4% and 30.1% respectively [1] - The accommodation, catering, and entertainment sectors also reported substantial investment growth, with increases of 19.9%, 43.9%, and 41.5% respectively [1] High-Tech and Green Energy Investments - Investment in high-tech service industries grew by 18.1%, surpassing the overall investment growth rate by 25.6 percentage points, and its share of total investment increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In the green energy sector, investments in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries rose by 30.6%, indicating sustained high growth in green energy investments [1]

本报讯（记者韦静）记者近日从自治区统计局获悉，1—11月，全区经济运行总体平稳，生产供给持续 增强，消费规模继续扩大，进出口增势良好，高质量发展扎实推进。 外贸进出口较快增长，与全球主要市场贸易往来活跃。1—11月，全区外贸进出口总额7265.41亿元，同 比增长9.5%。从贸易伙伴看，对东盟进出口3842.24亿元，同比增长10.0%，占全区外贸进出口总额的 52.9%；对欧盟、非洲、拉丁美洲进出口同比分别增长49.5%、24.9%、20.5%。 服务业增势良好，新兴服务业较快发展。1—11月，全区铁路公路水路客货运输周转量同比增长4.6%， 比1—10月加快0.3个百分点。1—10月，规模以上服务业营业收入同比增长8.6%，互联网和相关服务， 居民服务、修理和其他服务业，软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业企业营业收入较快增长。规 模以上高技术服务业企业营业收入同比增长16.6%。 工业生产稳中有进，人工智能蓄势赋能。1—11月，全区规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.6%。从主要行 业看，造纸和纸制品业、电气机械和器材制造业、汽车制造业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增加值同比 分别增长40.4%、23.3%、1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic structure shows internal differentiation under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in November 2025. Although there are challenges, the transformation of new and old driving forces has structural highlights, and it is expected that the annual economic development target can be achieved with the continuous policy support. In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise due to the revision of economic expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Focus - **Industrial Added Value**: Affected by insufficient domestic demand and the high - base effect, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value in November was lower than expected. The year - on - year growth was 4.8%, 0.1 pct lower than the previous value, and lower than the median and average forecasts of 18 institutions. However, the month - on - month growth was 0.44%, 0.27 pct higher than the previous value, showing some month - on - month recovery [4]. - **Consumption and Export**: Consumption and export data showed a differentiated trend. The year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, 1.6 pct lower than the previous value, reflecting insufficient domestic demand. The year - on - year growth of exports was 5.9%, 7.0 pct higher than the previous value [5]. - **Investment**: Fixed - asset investment was under pressure. The cumulative year - on - year decrease was 2.6%, 0.9 pct lower than the previous value. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% from January to November, and the decline was 1.2 pct larger than that from January to October [5][6]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - **Investment Structure Optimization**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of investment in high - tech services was 4.1%, accounting for 5.4% of total service industry investment, 0.6 pct higher than the same period in 2024. - **Growth of New - Quality Productivity Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing was 9.2% and 7.6% respectively. - **Stabilizing Role of Equipment Manufacturing**: In November, the year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing was 7.7%, and the cumulative added value accounted for 36.4% of all large - scale industries, 1.8 pct higher than the whole year of 2024, and it has exceeded 30% for 33 consecutive months [7]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - It is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields expected to rise continuously [8].

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to operate steadily, with industrial production and service sectors showing stable growth. The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month, while the cumulative growth from January to November was 6.0% [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial production remained stable, with most sectors experiencing growth. The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw rapid growth, indicating a continuous upgrade and transformation of the industrial economy [2][9] Service Sector and Retail - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.4%, which is an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 444,035 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6%. However, excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 0.8%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9% [4][7] Policy Impact - The effects of large-scale equipment renewal policies have been evident, with significant growth in investment in equipment and tools. Despite an overall decline in investment, industrial investment remains stable, particularly in high-end, intelligent, and green development sectors [7][9] Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and high-quality development, providing a direction for economic transformation. Future macro policies are expected to focus more on technological innovation to empower industries and achieve high-quality economic growth [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the acceleration of innovation industries, with high-tech industry sales revenue increasing by 14.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months, maintaining a double-digit growth rate [1] - High-tech service industry sales revenue grew by 17.2%, while high-tech manufacturing sales revenue increased by 11.1%, particularly in advanced manufacturing sectors like integrated circuits and industrial mother machines, which saw sales growth of 19.3% and 11% respectively [1] - The article highlights the importance of financial innovation in supporting technological innovation, advocating for optimized financial services that provide comprehensive support throughout the lifecycle of technology innovation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the need to accelerate scene cultivation and openness to further stimulate innovation vitality and development momentum, with a focus on 22 key areas for scene cultivation as outlined in the recent implementation opinions [2] - It is anticipated that the implementation of these measures will clarify the path from technological breakthroughs to industrial applications, facilitating the market entry of new technologies and products [2] Group 3 - The importance of pilot testing platforms is underscored as a crucial link in transitioning technological achievements from laboratories to applications, with recent notifications from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focusing on systematic layout and high-level construction of manufacturing pilot testing platforms [3] - The article advocates for a collaborative model involving government, academia, and industry to enhance the effectiveness of pilot testing platforms, thereby supporting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [3]

Core Insights - The tax revenue collected by the tax authorities in China exceeded 29 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, driven by a stable economy and an active capital market [1] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing accelerated high-end development, with significant growth in sales revenue and investment in automation and digital technologies [3] - High-tech industries continue to show robust growth, with sales revenue increasing by 14.7% year-on-year, particularly in high-tech services and manufacturing [4] - The consumer market is witnessing positive changes due to government policies and new consumption models, with notable increases in retail sales across various sectors [5][6] Tax Revenue and Economic Performance - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector remains stable at around 30%, indicating its crucial role in the economy [3] - The implementation of tax reduction policies has contributed to the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, with equipment manufacturing sales revenue growing by 8.3% [3] - Traditional industries are also enhancing their quality, with R&D investment increasing by 12.3% year-on-year [3] High-Tech Industry Growth - High-tech industries have shown a year-on-year sales revenue growth of 14.7%, with high-tech services growing by 17.2% and high-tech manufacturing by 11.1% [4] - The digital economy's core industries have seen a sales revenue increase of 10%, with significant growth in digital product services and applications [4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy has stimulated consumer demand, with retail sales of mobile communication devices and home appliances increasing by 20.3% and 26.5%, respectively [6] - The tourism sector is also thriving, with a 285% increase in the number of overseas travelers benefiting from tax refund policies [6] - New cultural and tourism experiences are emerging, contributing to a 19.1% increase in sales revenue from film screenings and a 10.8% increase in travel services [6] Future Tax Policies - The tax authorities plan to continue implementing supportive tax policies to enhance consumption and optimize tax payment services [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady development of new productive forces in China, with significant advancements in emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries [1][2] - From January to November, sales revenue in high-tech industries increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with high-tech service and manufacturing sectors growing by 17.2% and 11.1% respectively [1] - The sales revenue of core digital economy industries rose by 10% year-on-year, indicating ongoing progress in digital industrialization and the digitalization of industries [1] Group 2 - Traditional industries are accelerating the application of intelligent manufacturing equipment, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in the procurement of digitalization equipment and a 9.3% increase in automation equipment [2] - There is a significant focus on energy-saving and environmental protection technologies, with a 33.2% year-on-year increase in the procurement of related services [2] - The manufacturing sector has seen a total of 16,650 billion yuan in tax reductions and refunds in the first ten months, supporting high-quality development in manufacturing [2]

Core Insights - The manufacturing sector in China is accelerating its high-quality development, particularly in high-end, intelligent, and green transformations [1][4] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - In the first 11 months of this year, sales revenue in the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with notable growth in computer communication equipment (12.3%) and instrument manufacturing (10.3%) [1] - The procurement of automation equipment by manufacturing enterprises rose by 14.2%, indicating a significant shift towards intelligent upgrades [3] - Traditional industries are also enhancing their quality and efficiency, with a 7.6% increase in the purchase of digital equipment and a 9.3% increase in automation equipment [7] Group 2: Emerging Industries Growth - High-tech industries and core digital economy sectors experienced robust growth, with high-tech industry sales revenue increasing by 14.7% and high-tech service revenue by 17.2% [4] - The digital economy core industries saw a 10% increase in sales revenue, with digital product services and applications growing by 9.8% and 14.3%, respectively [6] Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries are increasingly adopting energy-saving and environmental protection technologies, with a 33.2% rise in the procurement of such services [8] - This shift is aimed at promoting cleaner, low-carbon production and more efficient resource utilization [8]

据介绍，今年以来我国传统产业深入推进提质升级，加快应用智能制造设备。1—11月，全国传统产业 采购数字化设备金额同比增长7.6%，采购自动化设备金额同比增长9.3%。此外，传统产业生产也更加 环保。 增值税发票数据显示，今年前11个月，高技术产业销售收入同比增长14.7%。其中，高技术服务业销售 收入同比增长17.2%；高技术制造业销售收入同比增长11.1%，特别是集成电路、工业母机等制造业销 售收入同比分别增长19.3%和11%。同时，数实融合也在不断突破。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...