如果你是在节点已经到了的时候惊呼的人，那这个节点对你也没啥价值。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的第464篇楼市评论。 很多人对节点有着谜之追求。比如股票破4000点，比如关税战满1年，比如贸易顺差突破10000亿，比如 人民币汇率破7。 但节点也不过是按照趋势自然达成的而已，我们要做的是预测，不是庆贺。毕竟，也没在这样的节点里 拿到什么好处不是？ 我们不做第一种人，还是聊聊这件事意味着什么吧。 美联储今年连续降息，累计降了75个基点。市场觉得他们太墨迹，预计2026年还得接着降。之前美元很 强势，但现在还是收缩了，美元指数跌了不少。 而且破七这种事也并不新鲜。2024年9月25日，人民币汇率破升破7.0重要关口，最高触及6.99515。 这次肯定是我们主动的。为什么？ 因为过去如果人民币升值太快，央妈会出来踩刹车。比如通过设定中间价来引导预期等等。但这次没什 么动作还很淡定。 甚至在12月初，逆周期因子还调成了正值，这等于是在告诉市场说，这个升值方向是央妈认可的。 那么这个时候就只有两种人：一种人高喊人民币牛了，一种人盘算接下来会对我们有什么影响。 为了促使制造业回流，甚至明年美联储换帅，都影响着美元势头的减弱 ...

从价格看，我国数字化绿色化转型深入推进，新能源产业、数字产品制造快速发展，带动相关产品价格 上涨。11月份，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格同比上涨7.8%，集成电路制造价格上涨1.7%。 国家统计局昨日公布的数据显示，11月份我国经济延续稳中有进发展态势，表现为生产增势平稳、市场 销售扩大、外贸韧性彰显、就业物价稳定、民生保障有力。值得一提的是，前11个月经济新动能持续壮 大，这将有利于经济向好发展。 数据显示，11月规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，服务业生产指数同比增长4.2%。同期，社会消费 品零售同比增长1.3%；货物进出口总额同比增长4.1%；全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，与上月持平。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从全 年情况看，尽管有困难有压力，但我国经济韧性强，宏观政策支持有力，新动能稳步成长，实现全年预 期目标有较好条件。 前11个月，经济新动能持续壮大的特征尤其明显。付凌晖指出，从供给看，高端化、数字化、智能化生 产发展向好。1～11月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.2%；数字产品制造业增加值增长 9.3%；工业机器人、集成 ...

深圳商报首席评论员 胡蓉 1800亿件！ 资料显示，自2014年起中国快递业务量就稳居全球第一，目前已占全球总量60%以上。过去，美国被称 为"车轮上的国家"，汽车的普及深刻影响了其经济结构与社会生活；现在，中国快递业也正在发挥"新 时代的车轮作用"，以更均衡、更普惠的方式，推动着中国经济前行。 快递业的"风向标"作用绝非浪得虚名。在了解其独特作用之后再看1800亿件这一历史新纪录，会得到更 深切的体会。 促消费，成为政府着力推动并贯穿全年的重要工作任务。快递直接连接生产者与消费者，快递量的增长 往往意味着居民线上消费活跃、生活物资流通顺畅，折射出社会终端需求的变化。 1800亿件的快递业务量新纪录表明，这些努力取得了效果。这一数字也已超过2024年全年1750.8亿件的 快递业务量，因此，2025年全年业务量还将创出新高，取得正增长已成定局。 数据还表明，前10个月，我国邮政快递业区域协调发展再上新台阶。中西部地区快递业务收入占全国比 重同比分别上升0.6个和0.3个百分点；快递业务量占全国比重分别上升1.1个和0.6个百分点。西部偏远地 区包邮助力本地寄递网络建设，内蒙古、新疆、西藏等地快递业务成为增长亮 ...

Economic Growth Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [17] - The GDP growth in the third quarter was 1.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the second quarter [3][17] - The contribution of the primary industry to economic growth was 4.7%, while the secondary industry contributed 34.6%, and the tertiary industry contributed 60.7% [17] Consumption and Retail - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, driving GDP up by 2.8 percentage points [4][13] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [4][18] - Service retail sales increased by 5.2%, showing a continuous acceleration in growth [4][18] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 371,535 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [6][18] - Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0%, indicating a shift towards more promising sectors [6][18] - Infrastructure investment rose by 1.1%, while manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% [6][18] Foreign Trade Performance - The total import and export value reached 336,078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [8][18] - Exports amounted to 199,450 billion yuan, increasing by 7.1%, while imports slightly decreased by 0.2% to 136,629 billion yuan [8][18] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was 1.5 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 29.0% [8][18] Industrial and Service Sector Developments - The added value of the industrial sector increased by 6.2%, with manufacturing growing by 6.8%, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3][17] - The high-tech manufacturing sector saw a 9.6% increase in added value, contributing 24.7% to the growth of the industrial sector [14][18] - The information transmission, software, and IT service industries reported a revenue growth of 12.1%, surpassing the overall service sector growth by 4.4 percentage points [10][18]

Core Insights - The next focus of the Chinese economy is on enjoyment and leisure, emphasizing the importance of balancing work with the enjoyment of life [2][3] - The government is actively supporting leisure and entertainment industries, as evidenced by recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption [3][4] Economic Context - China's production capacity is unmatched globally, but the challenge lies in overproduction, leading to excess supply in various industries [4] - To combat this, the government is implementing measures to control production capacity while seeking new growth models beyond traditional goods production and consumption [4][5] Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have introduced policies to promote service consumption, including considerations for school holidays and financial support for leisure activities [3][4] - The aim is to create time and space for citizens to engage in leisure activities, which in turn can stimulate economic growth and job creation [4][5] Cultural Shift - There is a need to update traditional views on work and leisure, recognizing that enjoyment and leisure can also be productive and contribute to economic development [5][6] - The narrative shifts from a solely labor-focused mindset to one that values both hard work and the enjoyment of life, which is essential for a balanced and prosperous society [5][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Despite challenges such as extreme weather and trade friction, China's economy has shown resilience, achieving an 8.0% growth in exports in July and a 9.9% increase in equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential to meet the annual growth target of around 5% [1][4]. Economic Resilience Structure - Export diversification has effectively mitigated the decline in exports to the U.S., with total exports growing by 6.1% in the first seven months, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, Latin America, and the EU increased by 13.5%, 24.5%, 7.3%, and 7.0% respectively [4]. - Industrial structure upgrades are injecting new momentum into the economy, with high-tech industrial value-added growing by 9.5%, significantly above the overall industrial growth rate of 6.3%. Equipment manufacturing value-added rose by 9.9%, and investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2%, contributing 2.2 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - The service sector has made a notable contribution to economic growth, with a 5.5% increase in service value-added in the first half of the year, accounting for 60.2% of economic growth [5]. Future Export Growth Points - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is primarily affecting goods trade, leaving service trade relatively unaffected. Knowledge-intensive service exports, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, are expected to become new growth points for China's exports [7]. - China's R&D capabilities are strong, with the highest number of R&D personnel globally, and the cost of high-quality talent is lower compared to developed economies, which supports the potential for growth in service exports [7]. Service Consumption Growth - There is significant potential for increasing the share of service consumption in China, which is currently at 46%. As GDP per capita rises to $20,000 by 2035, service consumption could increase by over 10% [8]. - Service consumption is less prone to demand exhaustion compared to durable goods, making it a more stable driver of long-term consumption growth [8]. Policy Recommendations - The government is advised to increase subsidies in the service consumption sector to encourage habit formation and structural upgrades in consumption [9]. - Enhancing the supply of quality services, particularly in cultural and entertainment sectors, is recommended to foster new growth in service consumption [9]. - Targeted support in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and retraining is suggested to address both immediate and long-term needs [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - The current "fiscal heat, credit cold" phenomenon is attributed to a front-loaded fiscal stimulus and structural changes in credit demand, with a shift towards high-quality development [11]. - Coordinated efforts between fiscal and monetary policies are essential to address the imbalance, with suggestions for direct fiscal subsidies to lower financing costs for the real economy [13]. - The focus should be on quality rather than quantity in credit provision, with expectations that economic growth will meet targets without further interest rate cuts in the short term [14].

Economic Overview - Zhanjiang's economy remains stable with strong industrial support and continuous growth in infrastructure investment, while the consumer market shows increased activity and some industries experience rapid growth [1] - Fixed asset investment faces certain pressures in some areas [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value of Zhanjiang increased by 9.7% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience [1] - Mining industry grew by 16.8%, while manufacturing increased by 9.3% [1] - Specific industries showing high growth include textiles and apparel (69.9%), communication equipment and computer manufacturing (59.3%), printing and recording media reproduction (49%), automotive manufacturing (24.6%), and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (23.0%) [1] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment rose by 22.3%, with significant increases in flood control and drainage management (81.5%) and railway transportation (35.2%) [1] Financial Support - By the end of July, the total balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 514.708 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the loan balance was 450.805 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% [1] - Household deposits amounted to 385.577 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% increase [1] Investment Structure - Industrial investment accounts for 54.1% of fixed asset investment, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2] - Investment in steel smelting and processing surged by 366%, while industrial technological transformation investment grew by 25.6%, highlighting the significant impact of major projects on economic growth [2]

Economic Resilience and Growth - China's exports grew by 8.0% in July despite a 24% tariff pressure from the US, with equipment manufacturing showing a 9.9% growth rate [2][3] - The diversification of exports and industrial upgrades are restructuring the resilience of the Chinese economy, with high-tech industries showing a 9.5% increase in industrial added value [3][4] - The service sector contributed significantly to economic growth, with a 5.5% increase in added value in the first half of the year, accounting for 60.2% of economic growth [4] Export Dynamics - The decline in exports to the US was offset by increases in exports to ASEAN (13.5%), Africa (24.5%), Latin America (7.3%), and the EU (7.0%) [3] - The "rush to export" effect is expected to have a manageable impact, with an estimated 1.7% of 2024's total export amount being pre-empted [5] - Knowledge-intensive service exports, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, are anticipated to become new growth points for China's exports [6] Service Consumption Growth - There is significant potential for growth in service consumption, with projections indicating an increase in the share of service consumption from 46% in 2024 to over 10% by 2035 as GDP doubles [7] - Key areas for service consumption growth include health services and cultural entertainment, which are expected to see increased demand as income levels rise [7][9] - The development of service consumption is seen as a long-term growth driver, with less risk of demand overextension compared to durable goods [7] Policy Recommendations - Recommendations include increasing subsidies in the service consumption sector to encourage habit formation and structural upgrades [8] - Enhancing the quality of supply in cultural and entertainment services is suggested to foster new growth in service consumption [9] - Targeted support in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and retraining is recommended to address both immediate and long-term needs [10] Financial and Monetary Policy Coordination - The current "hot fiscal, cold credit" phenomenon is attributed to a shift in credit demand towards high-quality development sectors [11] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with suggestions for fiscal interest subsidies to lower financing costs for the real economy [12] - The focus should be on quality rather than quantity in credit provision, with expectations that economic growth will meet targets without further interest rate cuts [14]

Group 1: Electricity Consumption Growth - In July, China's total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reflecting strong economic activity, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [1] - The highest electricity load reached 1.508 billion kilowatts, an increase of 57 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak [1] - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption in July reached 203.9 billion kilowatt-hours, a significant year-on-year increase of 18% [1] Group 2: Economic Drivers of Electricity Demand - The third industry showed robust growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 1.13 trillion kilowatt-hours from January to July, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [2] - The internet and related services sector saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 28.2% in electricity consumption during the same period [2] - Hangzhou's digital economy led the charge with a 15.7% increase in electricity consumption in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Impact - The charging and swapping service industry for electric vehicles experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 42.6% in electricity consumption from January to July [3] - The number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure units increased by 93.2% year-on-year, reaching 16.696 million by the end of July [3] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China's passenger car market is expected to reach 56.7% in August, which is anticipated to further boost electricity consumption in the charging service sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The July economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that despite short-term shocks from extreme weather and a complex international environment, the economy is exhibiting stable growth in production supply, consumption, and investment, with new driving forces continuously expanding [1][3]. Economic Operation Characteristics - The economic operation in July has five main characteristics: 1. Stable growth in production supply 2. Continued growth in consumption and investment 3. Resilience in foreign trade 4. Overall stability in employment and prices 5. Steady growth of new driving forces [3][4]. - In July, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, maintaining rapid growth. The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, a seasonal increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but remained stable compared to the same period last year [3]. Consumption and Investment Trends - Service consumption has driven overall consumption to maintain a steady upward trend. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with retail sales of goods growing by 4%. From January to July, service retail sales increased by 5.2% [5]. - Investment growth has slowed due to extreme weather and project construction delays, but the scale of investment continues to expand. From January to July, investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% [5]. New Quality Productivity and High-Quality Development - High-tech manufacturing has shown positive development, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, outpacing the growth rate of overall industrial output. The production indices for information transmission software and IT services, as well as leasing and business services, grew by 11.9% and 8%, respectively [6][7]. - The online consumption sector has also seen rapid growth, with the online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 6.3% year-on-year from January to July, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [7].