本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，整体咖啡行业价格竞争趋缓；阿 拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台外卖大战，奶茶成为引 流品，数据依旧具备韧性；关注平台补贴逐步趋缓风险。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。从京东及唯品会财报可以看出，暖冬& 国补基数等因素都对电商增速产生一定压力。 流媒体平台：流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈 利杠杆释放。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：宏观波动，加密市场催化有限，币价承压。本周美 SEC 及 CFTC 向白宫提交加密行业 和预测市场监管计划；美 CFTC 主席表示已准备在特朗普任期内落实《CLARITY 法案》；纽交所母公司 ICE 投资 OKX，估值达 250 亿美元；Kraken 成为首家获准接入美联储核心支付系统的加密货 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, with expectations of limited movement relative to the market in the next 3-6 months [53]. Core Insights - The coffee industry remains in a high-growth phase, with brands actively opening new stores and a slowdown in price competition. The decline in Arabica coffee futures prices is expected to improve cost structures [3]. - The tea beverage sector is facing some pressure, with concerns over potential "sugar tax" regulations impacting market sentiment, despite resilient data [3]. - The e-commerce sector continues to be under pressure due to the domestic consumption environment, showing lackluster performance [3]. - Music streaming platforms are seen as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a focus on cost-effective consumption. NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for 2025 is slightly below expectations, but growth in subscription services is anticipated for 2026 [3]. - The virtual assets and trading platforms are experiencing pressure from geopolitical risks, with ongoing regulatory developments in Hong Kong aimed at establishing a licensing system for virtual asset service providers [3]. - In the automotive service sector, several major automotive service chains are expanding their market presence with aggressive store opening policies, while OEMs are struggling with inventory pressures in the fuel vehicle segment [3]. - The real estate sector is stabilizing with new policies in Shanghai aimed at price stabilization, suggesting a focus on companies like Beike-W [3]. - The AI and cloud sectors are facing challenges due to tightening dollar liquidity and concerns over profitability among internet giants, but the long-term outlook for AI remains positive [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index saw a cumulative decline of 1.82%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.64 percentage points [8]. - Notable stock performances include Tims (+21.35%), Bawang Tea (+5.71%), and Haidilao (+4.45%), while Luckin Coffee (-10.08%) and Mixue Ice Cream (-9.07%) faced significant declines [8][9]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index dropped by 4.14%, underperforming both the Hang Seng index and the Hang Seng technology index [17]. - Key stock performances included Netflix (+22.33%) and Spotify (+4.96%), while iQIYI (-12.09%) and Tencent Music (-3.95%) struggled [17]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - As of February 27, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $240.27 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices at $65,884 and $1,931.32, respectively [25]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index showed a cumulative increase of 0.42%, with notable stock performances from O'Reilly (+0.41%) and AutoZone (+0.19%) [33]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index declined by 2.49%, with stocks like Cao Cao Mobility (+9.77%) performing well, while major players like Didi Global (-5.17%) faced declines [39]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by 0.76%, with TSMC (+1.09%) showing positive performance, while major tech companies like Alibaba (-6.69%) and Baidu (-8.41%) faced declines [46].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, expecting a fluctuation range of -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations. Price competition is expected to ease following the end of promotional pricing by Kudi and rising coffee bean prices [3][11]. - The e-commerce sector continues to face pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% and accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [3]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [3]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing volatility amid macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S. regulatory frameworks impacting market dynamics [3]. - The automotive service sector is expanding, with JD.com opening its first car modification center, indicating growth in the aftermarket segment [3]. - The AI and cloud sector is witnessing advancements in foundational model capabilities, leading to increased application deployment. The report suggests focusing on tech leaders with strong cash flow, such as Google and Microsoft in the U.S., and Tencent and Alibaba in China [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a cumulative decline of 0.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.92 percentage points [8]. - Notable stock performances include Yum China (+1.57%) and Luckin Coffee (-0.15%), with several other brands experiencing declines [8][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index fell by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 3.36 percentage points [19]. - Key stock movements included Tencent Music (+3.07%) and Spotify (-2.51%) [19][20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - As of January 30, the global cryptocurrency market cap was $296.04 billion, down 4.72%. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively [25][27]. 1.2.3 Automotive Aftermarket - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 1.78%, with Advance Auto Parts (+2.65%) leading the gains [33]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index declined by 1.16%, with notable stock performances including Beike-W (+5.48%) and Didi Global (-5.04%) [38]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index decreased by 1.45%, with Meta (+8.77%) and Google A (+3.07%) showing positive movements [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI applications, particularly highlighting the global download of Alibaba's Qianwen model exceeding 1 billion [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustained high demand in the coffee industry, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms [4]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing macroeconomic uncertainties, with notable revenue growth forecasts for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new entrants like Meituan, indicating a growing interest in the automotive aftermarket [4]. - The report highlights advancements in Robotaxi technology and the launch of AI applications in healthcare, suggesting a focus on these sectors [4]. - The AI and cloud segment is noted for its growth potential, with significant developments from Alibaba and OpenAI [4]. - The media sector shows positive trends in gaming, particularly with AI gameplay receiving favorable feedback [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee industry remains vibrant with brands expanding despite seasonal challenges [4]. - E-commerce faces challenges with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025 [4]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable assets, with a focus on subscription services [4]. - The virtual asset market is under pressure but shows potential for revenue growth, particularly for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is expanding with new players entering the market [4]. - Significant advancements in Robotaxi technology and AI applications in healthcare are noted [4]. - The AI and cloud sector is experiencing growth, with Alibaba's Qianwen model achieving over 1 billion downloads [4]. 1.3 Media - The gaming sector is performing well, with positive feedback on AI gameplay mechanics [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing trends in the AI industry, with companies like MiniMax and Zhiyu AI passing hearings, indicating a strong interest in AI investments [2] - The education sector is experiencing slight pressure, with increased competition among small and medium institutions, while leading companies like Alpha are stabilizing [4] - The coffee and tea beverage industry maintains high enthusiasm, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4] - E-commerce is under pressure due to the domestic consumption environment, with online retail sales for physical goods reaching 11.82 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Music streaming platforms are seen as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued investment interest [4] - The automotive service sector is witnessing a decline in sales for traditional luxury brands, while domestic luxury and new force brands are experiencing growth [4] - The internet medical sector is expanding, with companies like JD Health and Ant Group's AI health application gaining traction [4] - Concerns remain regarding the sustainability of capital expenditure and returns in the AI industry, but there is optimism about the long-term trends [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The non-essential consumption index fell by 2.98%, with notable stock performances from companies like HuShang Auntie (+4.27%) and Luckin Coffee (-3.62%) [9] - E-commerce index decreased by 2.86%, with Pinduoduo's stock rising by 24.51% while Alibaba's stock fell by 5.71% [13] 1.2 Platform & Technology - The media index dropped by 2.23%, with Netflix and Tencent Music experiencing slight declines [19] - The virtual asset market saw a decrease in total cryptocurrency market value to $296.84 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by 2.4% and 3.5% respectively [25] - The automotive service sector's index fell by 1.21%, with significant declines in stocks like Advance Auto Parts (-12.87%) [34] 1.3 Media - The media index decreased by 0.1763%, with Perfect World (+10.68%) and Giant Network (+8.97%) showing positive performance [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of new game releases and innovations in the gaming sector, with a projected revenue of 350.79 billion yuan for the domestic gaming market by 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI technology sector, emphasizing strong performance from leading tech companies like Google, META, Microsoft, Alibaba, and Tencent [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual return to stability in the market, with reduced concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, leading to improved liquidity and risk appetite [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on operational cash flow from leading tech firms and the application of AI in various sectors [3] - The cryptocurrency market faces short-term pressures but remains optimistic in the medium to long term, particularly regarding blockchain and decentralized payment technologies [3] - The Macau tourism sector is seen as a valuable investment opportunity, benefiting from a favorable supply-demand dynamic and expected growth during holiday periods [3] - The report expresses a bullish stance on trading platforms, viewing any short-term pullbacks as opportunities to increase positions [3] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The education index rose by 1.41%, outperforming several major indices. The number of college graduates is projected to increase by 480,000 to 12.7 million by 2026 [11][18] - **Luxury Goods & Gambling**: The luxury goods index increased by 3.90%, with notable gains from Sands China and MGM China. Macau's tourism is recovering well [20][28] - **Coffee & Tea**: The coffee sector remains robust, while the tea sector faces challenges due to reduced subsidies from delivery platforms [5][29] - **E-commerce**: The e-commerce sector is under pressure, affected by the consumption environment and tax impacts on advertising [5][33] 1.2 Platforms & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: The media index rose by 4.54%, with key players like Netflix and Tencent Music showing positive performance [43] - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $319.68 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 6.9% and 9.7%, respectively [49][52] - **Automotive Services**: Japan plans to achieve a fleet of 10,000 autonomous vehicles by 2030, indicating a significant push in the automotive sector [61] 1.3 Media - The report notes a record high of 184 game approvals in November, with the domestic gaming market expected to generate revenues of 31.36 billion yuan by October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.83% [5][12]