[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline on the first trading day after the holiday, with major indices dropping sharply, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,413.35, down 292.59 points or 1.10% [2]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.91% to 5,211.50 points, marking a new low in five months [4]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.22% to 8,959.56 points [2]. Sector Analysis - Technology stocks faced substantial losses, with major players like JD Health and Baidu dropping over 6%, while Tencent Music and Bilibili fell more than 5% [4][5]. - In contrast, AI applications and certain leading biotech companies saw gains, with some AI stocks like Zhiyuan and MiniMax experiencing significant increases in market capitalization [6]. Cryptocurrency Sector - Cryptocurrency-related stocks surged, with Star Chain Group rising over 122% [8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is evaluating applications for stablecoin issuer licenses, aiming to issue the first licenses by March [8]. Government Outlook - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong expressed optimism about the market for the Year of the Horse, noting that historically, three out of four Horse years have seen double-digit percentage increases [9].

来源：每日经济新闻 2月11日，香港证监会发布一揽子新规，允许持牌虚拟资产经纪向证券保证金客户提供虚拟资产融资服 务，前提是须具备足够的抵押品及设有稳健的投资者保障。 同时，香港证监会首次为持牌虚拟资产交易平台制定了一套高层次框架，以指导它们开发仅供专业投资 者参与并属杠杆式产品的永续合约。 这是香港证监会继2025年2月发布对虚拟资产市场的监管路线图"ASPIRe"后，在数字资产领域实施的又 一轮制度补位。 在同日举行的Consensus香港大会2026上，香港证监会中介机构部执行董事叶志衡表示，香港数字资产 的发展已进入关键阶段，"（香港证监会）今年的工作重点在于提升市场流动性，战略性地扩大市场参 与并鼓励负责任的产品创新，以增加市场深度，完善价格发现机制，并提升投资者信心。" 锚定证券框架，抵押品限比特币和以太币 根据香港证监会发布的通函，香港证监会正式废除了此前关于"持牌法团或注册机构不得向客户提供任 何财务通融以让他们购买虚拟资产"的禁令，而是将允许从事证券保证金融资的虚拟资产经纪，在有充 足的证券抵押品及若干限定虚拟资产抵押品用作缓减信贷风险的情况下，就虚拟资产交易向保证金客户 提供信贷。 但此次 ...

香港特首李家超：预计首批稳定币发行人牌照将于3月发出 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新社香港2月11日电 香港特区行政长官李家超11日出席区块链行业会议"Consensus香港大会2026"时表 示，香港金融管理局正积极处理牌照申请，相信首批稳定币发行人牌照将于3月发出。 李家超表示，过去数年，香港积极搭建监管框架，推动Web 3.0(第三代互联网)生态稳健、可持续发展。 去年6月，香港发布《数字资产发展政策宣言2.0》，构建可信、创新的数字资产生态，兼顾风险管理与 投资者保护，助力实体经济与金融市场发展。此外，香港《稳定币条例》于去年8月生效，为法币挂钩 稳定币发行人建立发牌制度。香港金融管理局正积极处理牌照申请，相信首批稳定币发行人牌照将于下 月发出。 李家超指出，Web 3.0与数字资产具备巨大发展潜力，可推动更高效、低成本、普惠的金融交易。作为 全球最自由经济体及国际金融中心，香港具备法治根基稳固、司法独立、资金自由流动、监管体系稳健 等核心竞争力，多项国际竞争力排名位居全球前列。未来将推出一系列措施，提升香港虚拟资产市场流 动 ...

Core Insights - The total market value of Hong Kong's virtual asset spot ETFs has surged to $920 million, reflecting a 217% increase since their launch, signaling a clear industry explosion [2] - The recent joint document issued by Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and the Securities and Futures Commission marks a significant shift in the regulatory landscape for virtual assets, moving from a "testing phase" to a "defined development phase" [2][3] Regulatory Changes - The focus of regulation has shifted from merely monitoring virtual asset trading platforms to a comprehensive oversight of the entire industry chain, emphasizing the nature of financial activities rather than the type of company [3] - Compliance requirements have become more stringent, with a focus on the actual segregation of client assets and the implementation of risk controls, rather than just maintaining documentation and processes [3][4] - Virtual assets are now recognized as integral members of the financial system, moving away from being seen as outsiders [4] Compliance and Business Opportunities - The regulatory framework is not a blanket tightening but a "precise loosening," categorizing businesses into three levels based on risk: core financial activities, quasi-financial activities, and technology and infrastructure services [5][6] - The Real World Asset (RWA) market is identified as a significant opportunity, with a projected annual growth rate of 178% in Hong Kong by 2025 and a global market size expected to exceed $16 trillion by 2030 [8] - Successful case studies in Hong Kong demonstrate the potential of RWA, such as the transformation of innovative drug IP into RWA tokens and the financing of solar power projects through tokenization [8] Market Dynamics - Regulatory upgrades are seen as a market reshuffle, favoring institutions with traditional financial backgrounds that are willing to invest in long-term compliance [9] - The current environment in Hong Kong's digital port has attracted over 300 blockchain companies, with an annual growth rate of 25%, indicating a clear market trend [10]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，香港证券及期货专业总会（HKSFPA）向政府提交财政预算意见书称，香港虚拟资产市场已 进入"后发牌时代"，牌照仅是入场券，流动性与应用落地才是关键。该会建议政府在 2026–27 年度预算 中由"监管基建"转向"商业化推动"，包括：加快代币上架审批、引入国际流动性、推动 RWA 二级市场 建设；鼓励持牌平台与传统券商通过综合账户接轨，激活存量资金；深化金管局 Project Ensemble，推 动代币化存款与稳定币应用落地。意见书同时指出，若长期"有牌无市"，持牌平台恐出现并购或退出 潮，香港虚拟资产中心地位面临"不进则退"的风险。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI industry continues to show strong trends, with companies like MiniMax and Zhiyu AI passing hearings, indicating ongoing interest and investment in AI technologies [2] - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4] - E-commerce is facing pressure due to a challenging domestic consumption environment, leading to a lackluster performance [4] - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, suggesting a focus on subscription models [4] - The virtual asset market is experiencing limited catalysts, with ongoing market anxiety and weak capital inflows [4] - The automotive service sector is expanding, with significant milestones such as Tuhu's workshop count surpassing 8000 [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow in technology leaders, particularly in the AI sector, while cautioning against potential overinvestment [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee and tea beverage sector shows a +0.18% increase in the Hang Seng non-essential consumption index, outperforming the Hang Seng index by -0.32 percentage points [9] - Notable stock performances include Mixue Group (+6.78%) and Luckin Coffee (+0.47%), while others like Bawang Tea and Xiaomian faced declines [9] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index decreased by 0.59%, underperforming both the Hang Seng index and technology index [18] - Key stock performances include iQIYI (+3.24%) and Spotify (+0.38%), while Tencent Music saw a decline of -1.98% [18] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of December 26, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $30,205 billion, up 1.76% [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were $87,306 and $2,926.70, reflecting slight declines of -0.9% and -1.7% respectively [22] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index fell by -1.21%, with notable stock performances such as Zhongsheng Holdings (+2.25%) and Advance Auto Parts (-12.87%) [30] 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index dropped by -2.86%, with significant declines in stocks like Beike (-6.62%) and Didi Global (+4.57%) [34] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by +0.92%, with Nvidia (+5.27%) and TSMC (+4.81%) showing strong performances [39] 1.3 Media - The Shenwan first-level media index remained nearly flat with a -0.1803% change, with advertising marketing showing the largest gains [41] - Key stock performances include Xindong Company (+5.22%) and Perfect World (+3.09%) [41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing trends in the AI industry, with companies like MiniMax and Zhiyu AI passing hearings, indicating a strong interest in AI investments [2] - The education sector is experiencing slight pressure, with increased competition among small and medium institutions, while leading companies like Alpha are stabilizing [4] - The coffee and tea beverage industry maintains high enthusiasm, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4] - E-commerce is under pressure due to the domestic consumption environment, with online retail sales for physical goods reaching 11.82 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Music streaming platforms are seen as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, suggesting continued investment interest [4] - The automotive service sector is witnessing a decline in sales for traditional luxury brands, while domestic luxury and new force brands are experiencing growth [4] - The internet medical sector is expanding, with companies like JD Health and Ant Group's AI health application gaining traction [4] - Concerns remain regarding the sustainability of capital expenditure and returns in the AI industry, but there is optimism about the long-term trends [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The non-essential consumption index fell by 2.98%, with notable stock performances from companies like HuShang Auntie (+4.27%) and Luckin Coffee (-3.62%) [9] - E-commerce index decreased by 2.86%, with Pinduoduo's stock rising by 24.51% while Alibaba's stock fell by 5.71% [13] 1.2 Platform & Technology - The media index dropped by 2.23%, with Netflix and Tencent Music experiencing slight declines [19] - The virtual asset market saw a decrease in total cryptocurrency market value to $296.84 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by 2.4% and 3.5% respectively [25] - The automotive service sector's index fell by 1.21%, with significant declines in stocks like Advance Auto Parts (-12.87%) [34] 1.3 Media - The media index decreased by 0.1763%, with Perfect World (+10.68%) and Giant Network (+8.97%) showing positive performance [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of new game releases and innovations in the gaming sector, with a projected revenue of 350.79 billion yuan for the domestic gaming market by 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is positioning itself as a leader in the tokenized economy by focusing on real-world applications rather than getting hindered by regulatory indecision [1][2] - The UAE's approach views tokenization as a foundational element for future economic value creation, rather than a speculative financial niche [2] Regulatory Developments - In May, Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) updated its framework to include the issuance and distribution of real-world assets (RWAs) [3] - VARA introduced Asset-Referenced Virtual Assets (ARVAs), establishing a new legal category that recognizes tokenized real-world assets as regulated financial instruments [4] Implementation and Results - The Dubai Land Department, in collaboration with VARA and other entities, launched the first blockchain-based real estate registration entity, significantly reducing the time required for property transactions [5] - Tokenization enhances ownership efficiency and provides access to a global investor base for compliant and transparent transactions [6] Comparative Analysis - Unlike jurisdictions such as the U.S. and UK, which are still in pilot phases, Dubai has moved directly to institutionalizing tokenization [7] - Dubai's proactive approach serves as a model for other markets, emphasizing the importance of building first and regulating in real time to foster innovation [8]

Core Viewpoint - Kyrgyzstan has officially launched the USDKG gold-backed stablecoin, with a total issuance of $50 million, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and fully backed by physical gold reserves [1] Group 1: Stablecoin Details - The USDKG stablecoin is issued by the state-owned OJSC Virtual Asset Issuer, which is affiliated with the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance [1] - The stablecoin operates under the 2022 Virtual Assets Law, marking it as the first stablecoin project in Central Asia that combines "state regulation + on-chain transparency + gold backing" [1] Group 2: Technical Aspects - The initial issuance of USDKG will run on the Tron blockchain, with plans to expand to Ethereum in the future [1] - The stablecoin has been audited by ConsenSys Diligence, ensuring compliance and security [1]