查看完整报告 特别申明： 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【有色】供改文件正式落地，稀土上行动力仍存——稀土行业跟踪报告之四 从2024年10月1日实行的《稀土管理条例》拉开稀土供改序幕，到2025年2月19日的《征求意见稿》，再到8月 22日的《管理暂行办法》，我们看到了清晰的稀土供改政策脉络以及越来越严格的监管。同时叠加今年7月以 来轻稀土价格的持续上涨以及稀土作为战略性关键矿产资源的价值重估，我们认为稀土板块存在继续上涨的动 力。 （王招华/马俊/方驭涛/张寅帅）2025-08-25 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【中国宏桥（1378.HK）】量价齐升助力业绩同比高增，高额回购彰显公司长期信心——动态跟踪报告 中国宏桥2025年公司半年报归母净利润同比高增35%。成本 ...

2025 年 8 月 26 日 行业研究 宇树发布新款人形机器人预告，看好液冷行业发展趋势 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 34 周（2025.8.18-2025.8.24） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 分析师：夏天宇 执业证书编号：S0930525070006 021-52523805 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 要点 重点子行业观点 人形机器人： 8 月 19 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，随着物流自动化需求激增，无人叉车正成为叉车行业第三阶 段(无人化)的核心载体。中国无人叉车2024年渗透率仅为2%，但2019-2024年销量复合增长率达55%， 预计未来无人叉车替代有人叉车空间大。2023年我国销售额过亿元企业占8%;叉车企业、AGV/AMR企 业、系统集成企业为主要参与方。重点推荐：杭叉集团(603298.SH)、安徽合力(600761.SH)、中力股 份。关注：极智嘉-W(02590)、诺力股份(603611.SH)、兰剑智能(688557.SH)、东杰智能(300486.SZ)等。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 无人叉车(移动机器人)：无人搬运、无人装卸定义物料搬运新模式 无人叉车：叉车行业下一站。叉车行业第一站为燃油化，第二站为电动化，下一站为无人化。2025年7 月1日，亚马逊公司的亚马逊机器人全球机器人总量已部署超100万台。无人叉车为移动机器人品种之 一，2023年在移动机器人销售中占比达16%，主要应用于制造业、仓储物流等的室外转运、外月台装 卸、室内转运、室内存取等环节。无人搬运、无人装卸有望成为叉车行业未来发展趋势之一。 无人叉车经济性 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant advancements, with notable collaborations and funding activities indicating a robust growth trajectory [4][5][6][7] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers due to increasing power demands from high-performance chips, with a projected increase in adoption rates [8][9] - The machine tool and cutting tool sectors are showing signs of recovery, driven by improved economic expectations and policy implementations [9][15] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from major infrastructure projects, particularly the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [14][15] - The forklift market is witnessing growth in both domestic and export sales, with a significant increase in the penetration of unmanned forklifts [16][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - A collaboration between Zhiyuan Robotics and Fulian Precision Engineering marks the first large-scale commercial order for humanoid robots in the industrial sector [4] - Nvidia's new AI models for robotics development, including the Cosmos Reason model, are set to enhance capabilities in physical AI applications [4] - Significant funding rounds for companies like Lingdong General Robotics and Daimeng Robotics are aimed at advancing humanoid robot technology [5][6] Liquid Cooling - Nvidia's latest chip releases indicate a shift towards liquid cooling solutions, with traditional air cooling systems becoming inadequate [8] - China's "East Data West Computing" initiative mandates new data centers to achieve a PUE of less than 1.25, further pushing the adoption of liquid cooling [8] - The report suggests a transition from single-phase to dual-phase cooling technologies as chip power consumption continues to rise [8][9] Machine Tools & Cutting Tools - Japan's machine tool orders show a slight decline, but orders from China continue to grow, indicating a positive trend for the sector [9] - China's metal cutting machine tool production has increased by 13.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting a recovery in demand [9] Engineering Machinery - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to drive demand for engineering machinery [14] - Excavator sales in July 2025 increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the domestic market [15] Forklifts - Forklift sales reached 118,605 units in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, driven by increased operational hours and demand for unmanned forklifts [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the focus on technology growth directions and the recovery opportunities in undervalued sectors, particularly in machinery and robotics [2][15] - The report highlights the strong performance of excavator sales and the steady growth of forklift sales, indicating a positive trend in the machinery sector [12][14] Summary by Sections Company Performance - **Jiaocheng Ultrasonic**: Achieved revenue of 148 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.35%, and a net profit of 23.63 million yuan, up 2152.47%. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the lithium battery industry and growth in semiconductor sectors [3][15] - **Zhenghe Industrial**: Reported revenue of 395 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.32% increase, with a net profit of 53.84 million yuan, up 100.09%. The company is developing micro-chain systems for robotics, which may benefit from the mass production of humanoid robots [4][15] - **Lvtian Machinery**: Focused on general power machinery and energy storage products, with revenue growth rates of 47.9%, 72.5%, and 50.1% in Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively. The company expects a net profit growth of 50%-70% in H1 2025 [5][15] Market Trends - In July 2025, excavator sales reached 17,138 units, a 25.2% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales up 17.2% and exports up 31.9%. This growth is attributed to infrastructure investment and equipment replacement policies [13][58] - Forklift sales in July 2025 totaled 118,605 units, a 14.4% increase year-on-year, with both domestic and export sales showing strong growth [14][41] Robotics and Technology - The report notes the increasing demand for humanoid robots and AI-related equipment, with significant events such as the World Humanoid Robot Games showcasing advancements in this field [12][56] - The domestic industrial robot market is expected to grow significantly, driven by labor cost increases and government policies promoting automation [53][56] Policy Support - The report outlines various government policies aimed at supporting the machinery and robotics sectors, including initiatives for equipment upgrades and technological innovation [39][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly favoring engineering machinery and forklifts, as well as PCB equipment and humanoid robots [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing strong domestic and international demand, with excavator sales in July reaching 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17%. This indicates robust demand resilience in the domestic market [2]. - Forklift sales in July totaled 119,000 units, up 14% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 70,000 units, also reflecting a 14% increase. The sector is expected to maintain steady growth due to recovering demand in Europe and the U.S. [3]. - The humanoid robotics sector is witnessing advancements, highlighted by the successful World Robot Sports Conference, which showcased improvements in robot mobility and decision-making capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - July excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a 17% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand resilience. The domestic market shows a trend favoring small excavators, particularly in water conservancy projects [2]. - Non-excavator machinery sales also showed positive trends, with significant year-on-year increases in various categories, particularly in the crane segment [2]. - Export volumes reached 9,832 units, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand from markets like Africa and Indonesia [2]. - The report highlights the potential for profit margin improvements due to a shift in export structure favoring larger excavators, which have higher profit margins [2]. Forklifts - The forklift industry saw sales of 119,000 units in July, a 14% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 70,000 units [3]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the forklift sector, driven by domestic demand and recovery in overseas markets [3]. - Key players in the industry are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [3]. Humanoid Robots - The World Robot Sports Conference showcased significant advancements in robot capabilities, particularly in mobility and autonomous decision-making [4]. - The report identifies key components for humanoid robots, such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials, as critical areas for investment [4]. - The focus on lightweight materials and applications in logistics is expected to drive growth in the humanoid robotics sector [4]. PCB Equipment - The report notes a significant increase in global server sales, which is expected to drive demand for PCB equipment, with a projected market size of $366 billion by 2025 [9]. - The demand for high-layer and HDI boards is expected to grow significantly, with respective year-on-year increases of 40.2% and 18.8% [10]. - The report suggests focusing on key production processes such as drilling, exposure, and plating, which are critical for PCB manufacturing [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a series of in-depth research calls focused on various aspects of robotics and related technologies, highlighting investment opportunities and industry trends in the mechanical sector [4][5]. Group 1: Robotics and Technology - The research series includes discussions on humanoid robots, their cognitive capabilities, and sensory technologies such as 3D vision and tactile sensors [4]. - Key topics also cover the mechanical components of robots, including efficient motors, precision reducers, and bearings, which are essential for enhancing robotic functionality [4]. - The series emphasizes the growing market for exoskeleton robots and companion robots, indicating a shift towards advanced wearable technology and AI companionship [4]. Group 2: Industrial Applications - The research addresses the logistics sector, focusing on how robotics can enhance supply chain efficiency and the demand for specialized robots in safety and unique operational scenarios [5]. - The article discusses the commercial aerospace sector, highlighting the benefits of high-density rocket launches and the interdependence of rocket and satellite supply chains [5]. - It also explores the potential of controlled nuclear fusion and its impact on capital expenditure in upstream sectors driven by downstream demand [5]. Group 3: Equipment and Machinery - The article reviews the recovery expectations in the tool industry, suggesting a resilient market outlook [5]. - It analyzes the engineering machinery sector, discussing the evolution of domestic sales over the past thirty years and the future trends in electric and unmanned applications [5]. - The research highlights the upcoming boom in mining automation, indicating a shift from technical feasibility to commercial viability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth potential and application of autonomous forklifts, emphasizing their integration with existing forklift technology and the increasing demand in logistics and manufacturing sectors [2][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The robotics industry is evolving along two main paths: vertical development focusing on humanoid robots for industrial and consumer applications, and horizontal development targeting specific applications to enhance efficiency through automation [2]. - In the logistics sector, companies like Amazon have deployed a significant number of robots, optimizing operations and reducing movement time by 10% [3]. Group 2: Market Data - Global forklift sales are projected to reach 2.14 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and China is expected to account for half of this volume [5]. - In 2023, global sales of autonomous forklifts reached approximately 30,700 units, marking a 46% increase year-on-year, with China leading the market at 19,500 units sold, a 47% increase [10]. Group 3: Technology and Cost - The cost of autonomous forklifts has significantly decreased from 600,000 RMB to around 200,000 RMB per unit since 2018, making them more competitive against traditional electric forklifts [13]. - The integration of advanced navigation and control technologies has enhanced the operational capabilities of autonomous forklifts, allowing for greater efficiency in indoor logistics [12]. Group 4: Company Performance - Toyota Industries reported a decline in forklift sales for FY2025 but expects net sales to grow by 7.7% due to price increases and favorable exchange rates [20]. - Hyster-Yale's Q1 2025 revenue fell by 14% year-on-year, primarily due to a weak European market, while KION Group saw a significant increase in order volume, indicating strong demand in the industrial vehicle sector [22][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The forklift industry is anticipated to experience a recovery starting in 2025, driven by growth in emerging markets, while the North American and European markets remain relatively weak [27].

Group 1: Medical Devices - The procurement scale of medical devices in the first half of 2025 shows strong growth, with a 25% year-on-year increase in June and a cumulative 41% increase for the first half of the year [2] - The implementation of equipment update policies is expected to drive long-term growth in medical device procurement, with a target of over 25% increase in investment by 2027 compared to 2023 [2] - Hospital funding pressures are easing, which is likely to lead to a gradual recovery in the performance of medical device companies, supported by increased issuance of special bonds for hospital equipment procurement [3] Group 2: Forklift Industry - The rise of autonomous forklifts is anticipated, driven by advancements in AI technology and a mature supply chain, making them economically viable [6] - Traditional forklift companies are expected to benefit from the shift towards automation, leveraging their established sales networks and operational quality [7] - Different leading domestic forklift companies are focusing on various aspects of autonomous forklift development, with partnerships and technology integration playing a crucial role in their strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the intelligent upgrade in the forklift industry is driving significant sales growth, with June sales data showing promising results [1] - The forklift industry is experiencing a shift towards automation and intelligence, with higher-priced unmanned forklifts expected to enhance profitability as their penetration rate increases [1] - The overall valuation of the industry is currently low, indicating a safety margin for potential investors [1] Group 2 - The Robot Industry ETF (159551) has risen over 1.5%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the robotics sector [1] - The ETF tracks the robotics index (H30590), which includes publicly listed companies involved in robotics manufacturing, system integration, and application [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Robot ETF Initiated Link A (020289) and Link C (020290) for exposure to the robotics sector [1]