点击蓝字，关注我们 目前两个关键时点： 一是8月7日 ，白宫宣布的最新对等关税生效的日期，相当于原定的8月1日往后 挪了1周。目前看来，加拿大、墨西哥、印度等，都有继续谈判的空间。 二是8月12日 ，是原定中美 暂缓的截至日期。但根据7/27-7/30中美第三轮高层经贸会谈，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期。这意味着中美双方将保持当前的关税状态，并继续延期90天， 这次延期后， 新截止日期将延至11月12日。 在这两个关键时间节点之前，全球可能存在一定的避险 情绪。 国内宏观关注： 7 月政治局会议后，相关宏观政策的具体执行与落地成效；其次，中美贸易关系进展 及海外主要经济体的宏观环境变化。 策略上聚焦三大主线： 本次策略推荐标的 | 港股 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 7月涨跌幅 | 所属行业 | | 3690.HK | 美团-W | -2.95% | 可选消费 | | 6181.HK | 老铺黄金 | -29.71% | 可选消费 | | 2050.HK | 三花智控 | 3.98% | 工业 | ...

Core Insights - Smoking causes more deaths annually than car accidents, alcohol, drug abuse, and homicides combined, yet consumption remains high in major markets like China, the US, and India [1] - The US cigarette sales reached 178 billion sticks in 2023, but have seen a decline of 8.7% this year, with a projected further drop of 6.3% [4][6] - India, the second-largest tobacco consumer, has 27% of adults smoking or chewing tobacco, with 940 billion sticks sold in 2023, but 92% of consumption comes from non-legal forms [11][13] - China stands out with a 38.8% increase in cigarette sales from 1.7 trillion to 2.4 trillion sticks from 2003 to 2023, while global sales decreased by 5.48% [15][17] US Tobacco Market - The US smoking rate has dropped from 40% in the 1960s to around 17% today, yet the remaining smokers consume over a thousand billion cigarettes annually [4] - Economic factors such as rising prices and the popularity of e-cigarettes are contributing to the decline in traditional cigarette sales [6][8] - Major tobacco companies like Altria and British American Tobacco reported over 10% sales declines in the first half of the year [6] Indian Tobacco Market - The Indian government faces challenges in controlling smoking while considering the livelihoods of millions of tobacco farmers [13] - Despite high taxes on legal cigarettes, many consumers resort to purchasing single sticks due to affordability issues [13] - The Indian tobacco control law has not effectively curbed the use of traditional and illegal tobacco products [11][13] Chinese Tobacco Market - China's cigarette consumption accounts for nearly half of global totals, despite a slow decline in smoking rates from 28% to 24% [17][21] - The lack of effective enforcement of smoking regulations contributes to the rising sales, contrasting with global trends [19][21] - The complexity of tobacco control in China is influenced by economic interests and public perception of tobacco harm [21][23] Global Tobacco Control Challenges - All three countries face the dilemma of balancing public health with economic interests and social habits related to smoking [23] - The effectiveness of tobacco control measures varies significantly, with the US relying on market strategies, India struggling with enforcement, and China experiencing rising sales despite regulatory efforts [21][23]