Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the performance of various stocks in both Hong Kong and US markets, highlighting significant price changes in July, with notable declines in companies like Old Puhuang and Novo Nordisk [1][2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by US trade policies, including fixed tariffs on imports from multiple countries, which may affect market sentiment [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes three main investment themes: "anti-involution" policies focusing on industries with high state-owned enterprise representation, technology growth in AI applications, and the importance of semi-annual earnings reports for stock adjustments [5][6]. - Specific stocks are recommended based on their performance and market conditions, such as Old Puhuang, which is expected to benefit from seasonal sales and strong earnings forecasts [6][7]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Old Puhuang (6181.HK) has seen a significant drop in stock price post-lockup, but is projected to achieve a sales revenue of approximately 138-143 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 240%-252% [6][7]. - Sanhua Intelligent Control (2050.HK) reported a revenue of 76.69 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, and is expected to maintain strong performance in the upcoming half-year [8][9]. - Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) is set to deliver new high-performance chips, which are anticipated to enhance vehicle value and revenue, amid a shift towards domestic chip solutions due to geopolitical factors [10][11]. Group 4: US Market Insights - Chubb Limited (CB.US) reported a net income of $2.97 billion for Q2 2025, marking a 33.1% increase, with a core operating income of $2.48 billion, reflecting strong underwriting profitability [15]. - Spotify (SPOT.US) faced challenges with Q2 earnings below expectations, but user growth remains robust, indicating potential for recovery despite current market concerns [17][18]. - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) experienced a significant stock drop due to lower-than-expected sales forecasts, but remains a key player in the pharmaceutical sector with strong growth prospects [19][20].

Core Insights - Smoking causes more deaths annually than car accidents, alcohol, drug abuse, and homicides combined, yet consumption remains high in major markets like China, the US, and India [1] - The US cigarette sales reached 178 billion sticks in 2023, but have seen a decline of 8.7% this year, with a projected further drop of 6.3% [4][6] - India, the second-largest tobacco consumer, has 27% of adults smoking or chewing tobacco, with 940 billion sticks sold in 2023, but 92% of consumption comes from non-legal forms [11][13] - China stands out with a 38.8% increase in cigarette sales from 1.7 trillion to 2.4 trillion sticks from 2003 to 2023, while global sales decreased by 5.48% [15][17] US Tobacco Market - The US smoking rate has dropped from 40% in the 1960s to around 17% today, yet the remaining smokers consume over a thousand billion cigarettes annually [4] - Economic factors such as rising prices and the popularity of e-cigarettes are contributing to the decline in traditional cigarette sales [6][8] - Major tobacco companies like Altria and British American Tobacco reported over 10% sales declines in the first half of the year [6] Indian Tobacco Market - The Indian government faces challenges in controlling smoking while considering the livelihoods of millions of tobacco farmers [13] - Despite high taxes on legal cigarettes, many consumers resort to purchasing single sticks due to affordability issues [13] - The Indian tobacco control law has not effectively curbed the use of traditional and illegal tobacco products [11][13] Chinese Tobacco Market - China's cigarette consumption accounts for nearly half of global totals, despite a slow decline in smoking rates from 28% to 24% [17][21] - The lack of effective enforcement of smoking regulations contributes to the rising sales, contrasting with global trends [19][21] - The complexity of tobacco control in China is influenced by economic interests and public perception of tobacco harm [21][23] Global Tobacco Control Challenges - All three countries face the dilemma of balancing public health with economic interests and social habits related to smoking [23] - The effectiveness of tobacco control measures varies significantly, with the US relying on market strategies, India struggling with enforcement, and China experiencing rising sales despite regulatory efforts [21][23]