来源：21世纪经济报道 作者：叶麦穗 银行"开门红"号角吹响，揽储热潮如约而至。 尽管相较于往年，这场揽储行动的热度明显减退，但中小银行依旧面临一定的压力。 整体来看，涉及利率上调的银行，多是以中小银行为主。社交平台上，银行员工们的揽储帖子也是各显神通。有农商 行的客户经理发布信息称："存款10万返400元购物卡，20万返900元购物卡，60万返2700元购物卡。" 博通咨询金融行业资深分析师王蓬博认为，近期部分中小银行将短期存款利率调升其实是在意料之内。由于岁末年初 银行存在揽储的考核指标，再加上年初放贷的任务重，规模较大，都对存款规模有一定的要求。因此中小银行愿意通 过提高短期存款利率，吸引资金快速到位，但从长期来看，这种行为其实更像是"季节限定"。毕竟目前存款利率下调 是大势所趋，未来存款利率仍有下调的空间。 邮储银行研究员娄飞鹏表示，当前市场存款规模总体充裕，但不同银行的经营处境存在明显差异。其中，中小区域银 行的吸储压力尤为突出，叠加年初"开门红"的节点竞争激烈，这类银行为稳定负债、吸收存款，可能会阶段性上调存 款利率，但此类调整本质上属于短期营销行为，并非长期利率趋势。 大行调整存款起存门槛 国有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of small and medium-sized banks in China raising deposit interest rates amid a competitive environment for attracting deposits, although the overall enthusiasm for deposit collection has decreased compared to previous years [1][8]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks have recently raised their deposit interest rates, albeit by limited margins compared to previous years, indicating a more cautious approach to managing funding costs and market competitiveness [1][8]. - For instance, the De商村镇银行 increased its one-year and three-year deposit rates from 1.50% and 1.70% to 1.55% and 1.73% respectively, while the 湖北麻城农村商业银行 raised its rates by up to 20 basis points for certain products [3][5]. - The overall trend shows that most banks adjusting rates are smaller institutions, which are under pressure to attract deposits as they face significant competition at the beginning of the year [7][8]. Group 2: Strategies of Large Banks - Large state-owned banks have not followed suit in raising deposit rates but have instead adjusted the minimum deposit thresholds for their products, reflecting a strategic shift towards maintaining customer relationships [10][12]. - For example, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has set a minimum deposit of 1 million for certain three-year products, while the Agricultural Bank of China has varied its minimum deposit requirements significantly across different products [10][11]. - This approach indicates a broader industry trend where large banks are focusing on optimizing their liability structures rather than competing solely on interest rates [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent increases in deposit rates by small banks are likely short-term marketing strategies to meet year-end deposit targets, with a general expectation that deposit rates will trend downward in the long term [7][8][12]. - The current market conditions show a disparity in the operational situations of different banks, with small regional banks facing more acute pressures to attract deposits compared to larger institutions [8][11]. - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that banks will continue to lower funding costs, with deposit rates expected to decrease further, although the pace of such adjustments may slow down as rates are already at low levels [12][13].

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially removed on January 5, with all deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1] - Multiple small and medium-sized banks, including Wuding Xingfu Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit rates, indicating a trend of flexible management based on individual bank conditions [1] Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD rose again on January 6, remaining above the 7 yuan mark, continuing a trend of appreciation that has lasted nearly nine months [1] - Analysts believe that the strengthening of the RMB is beneficial for foreign capital inflow, improving liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, with three asset categories highlighted for investment: aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1] Group 3: Company Performance Forecasts - Eleven companies are expected to achieve their highest net profits in the past decade by 2025, with Zijin Mining and Luxshare Precision leading with lower limits of 51 billion yuan and over 16.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to be strong due to supply constraints and structural demand growth, with companies like China Uranium Industry also anticipated to reach peak profits [2] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - Lithium carbonate prices have surged significantly, with a 7.74% increase on January 5 and an 8.99% increase on January 6, reaching 137,900 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and rising demand [3] - The price increase is linked to uncertainties in lithium supply and growing demand for energy storage, with market analysts suggesting limited downside potential for lithium prices [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yunnan Metallurgical Group is publicly offering a 3.18% stake in Cheng Tai Insurance for a base price of 184 million yuan, marking the third attempt to transfer this stake [6] - Four companies, including Suzhou Shangshun Technology, have initiated listing counseling as of January 6, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [6] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99%, driven by AI-related demand, while the S&P 500 and Dow reached historical highs [17] - Commodity prices, particularly metals, have seen significant increases, with copper and nickel reaching record highs, reflecting strong market conditions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in deposit rates by small and medium-sized banks indicate a shift from a uniform rate cut to a more nuanced approach, with some banks lowering rates while others are increasing them, reflecting a trend towards differentiated and strategic management of liabilities [1][4][5] Group 1: Rate Adjustments - On January 5, Suzhou Commercial Bank officially lowered its three-year fixed deposit rate from 2.2% to 1.9%, with all fixed deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1][6] - Other banks, such as Puyang Zhongyuan Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have also announced rate cuts, with some rates dropping by 30 basis points for various terms [2][7] - The trend of rate adjustments is not uniform; for instance, Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank maintained rates for certain terms while reducing others by 5 basis points [2][7] Group 2: Banks Increasing Rates - In contrast to the general trend of rate cuts, some banks like Wuding Xingfu Village Bank have increased their deposit rates, with one-year and two-year rates rising by 10 basis points [3][8] - Shannan Rural Commercial Bank is offering temporary rate increases for deposits made before March 31, with rates for various terms up by 15 to 14 basis points [3][8] - Biyang Rural Commercial Bank has launched a promotional period with higher rates for one-year, two-year, and three-year deposits, reaching up to 1.73% [3][8] Group 3: Strategic Management of Liabilities - The beginning of the year is critical for banks to attract deposits, leading some smaller banks to temporarily raise rates to appeal to yield-sensitive customers [4][10] - Analysts suggest that the current mixed rate adjustment strategy reflects the pressures of net interest margins and competitive deposit acquisition, indicating a shift towards more refined asset-liability management [5][10] - The differentiation in rate adjustments among banks is influenced by their individual asset-liability structures and competitive positioning in regional markets [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in deposit interest rates by small and medium-sized banks indicate a trend towards more flexible and differentiated management of liabilities, moving away from uniform rate cuts to tailored strategies based on individual bank conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - As of January 5, 2023, the three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially withdrawn, and all deposit products saw a decrease of 20 basis points [1]. - Various small and medium-sized banks, including Suzhou Commercial Bank and others, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit interest rates, with some rates being cut by as much as 30 basis points [1][2]. - For example, Puyang Zhongyuan Village Bank reduced its three-month, six-month, and two-year deposit rates by 30 basis points, while the one-year and five-year rates were lowered by 25 and 20 basis points, respectively [1]. Group 2: Divergent Rate Trends - In contrast to the general trend of rate cuts, some banks have begun to increase their deposit rates to attract customers, such as Wuding Xingfu Village Bank, which raised its one-year and two-year rates by 10 basis points [2]. - Shannan Rural Commercial Bank announced a promotional period until March 31, during which certain deposit rates would be increased by 15 to 14 basis points [2]. - Biyang Rural Commercial Bank launched a limited-time promotion with higher rates for one-year, two-year, and three-year deposits, reaching 1.41%, 1.43%, and 1.73%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Strategic Management of Liabilities - The beginning of the year is a critical period for banks to attract deposits, and smaller banks are using temporary rate increases to gain market share and create competitive advantages [3]. - The overall trend of declining deposit rates remains, but the likelihood of uniform cuts is decreasing as banks adopt more nuanced strategies based on their operational conditions [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current mixed rate adjustment landscape reflects a strategic choice by smaller banks facing pressure on net interest margins and heightened competition for deposits [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has raised the minimum threshold for its three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) to 1 million yuan, while the industry standard remains around 200,000 yuan [1][2] Group 1: ICBC's Large-Denomination CDs - ICBC's current offering for the three-year large-denomination CD has a starting threshold of 1 million yuan and an annual interest rate of only 1.55% [1][2] - The latest three-year fixed deposit product from ICBC has an interest rate that can go up to 1.55%, with a much lower starting threshold of just 50 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Market Trends - A recent survey indicated that six major state-owned banks, including ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, have completely stopped offering five-year large-denomination CDs [1][2] - Some joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are also following suit by reducing their long-term deposit offerings [1][2] - The structure of large-denomination CDs across banks has shifted significantly towards shorter terms, with ICBC now offering only one-month, three-month, six-month, one-year, two-year, and three-year products [1][2] - The interest rates for ICBC's one-year and two-year large-denomination CDs are both set at 1.2% [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The threshold for three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) has been raised to 1 million yuan, while the interest rate is only equivalent to that of a 50 yuan fixed deposit, which is 1.55% [1] Group 1 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is offering the fourth issue of three-year personal large-denomination CDs with a minimum deposit requirement of 1 million yuan [1] - The annual interest rate for the three-year CDs is set at 1.55%, which matches the highest rate available for three-year fixed deposits, but with a significantly lower minimum deposit of only 50 yuan [1] - Other city commercial banks are retaining one-year large-denomination CDs only for specific regions on their apps [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in bank stocks, with the Southern Bank ETF (512700) increasing over 8% since October, driven by a general uptrend in the banking sector [1] - Zhangjiagang Bank's stock rose by over 1%, contributing to the overall positive performance of bank stocks [1] - The current market shows that large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) typically have a minimum threshold of 200,000 yuan, with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offering a three-year personal CD starting at 1 million yuan with an interest rate of only 1.55% [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities predicts a systematic recovery in bank sector valuations by 2026, shifting the investment logic from a focus on dividends to a dual drive of "dividends + growth" [1] - The attractiveness of bank stocks is expected to increase as risk-free interest rates decline, appealing to conservative investors [1] - Some high-quality banks are anticipated to show strong earnings elasticity, with valuations potentially transitioning from price-to-book (PB) to price-to-earnings (PE) logic [1] Group 3 - The Southern Bank ETF (512700) closely tracks the CSI Bank Index, covering various banks with low valuations and high dividend yields, showcasing strong defensive attributes [1] - The article mentions that there are off-market funds linked to the ETF, specifically the connection funds A (004597) and C (004598) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a positive trend, with bank stocks rising, particularly Zhangjiagang Bank, which increased by over 1%. The Southern Bank ETF (512700) has risen over 8% since October, indicating a favorable market environment for bank investments [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market for large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) from banks has a starting threshold of approximately 200,000 yuan. For example, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is offering a three-year personal large-denomination CD with a minimum deposit of 1 million yuan and an annual interest rate of only 1.55% [1]. - The latest three-year fixed deposit products from ICBC have a maximum annual interest rate of 1.55%, with a minimum deposit requirement of only 50 yuan [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Huachuang Securities predicts that 2026 will be a year of systematic recovery in the valuation of the banking sector, transitioning from a defensive strategy to a balanced approach that combines fundamentals and capital drivers. The investment logic for bank stocks will shift from purely dividend defense to a dual-driven model of "dividend + growth" [1]. - The characteristics of high dividends and low valuations will continue to define bank stocks, especially in a declining risk-free interest rate environment, which will attract stable capital. As interest margins stabilize, regional credit demand rebounds, and non-interest income grows, some quality banks are expected to show strong earnings elasticity, with valuations likely shifting from price-to-book (PB) logic to price-to-earnings (PE) logic [1]. Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The Southern Bank ETF (512700) closely tracks the CSI Bank Index, covering major state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and quality regional banks. The constituent stocks generally exhibit low valuations (low PB) and high dividend yields, highlighting their defensive attributes in a volatile market environment [2].