8月4日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 9039 1.30% 513898 371051 数据显示，8月4日上海白银现货价格报价8940元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（9039元/千克）贴水99元/ 千克。 美国7月非农就业数据大幅低于预期（仅新增7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11万人），叠加5月和6月数据 被大幅下修（合计减少25.8万人），引发市场对美国经济衰退风险的担忧，联邦利率基金期货定价显 示，市场重新完全消化了今年两次降息的预期，其中第一次降息发生在9月的可能性为82%。此外，特 朗普政府解雇劳工统计局局长并施压美联储降息，进一步削弱市场对政策独立性的信心，加剧美元、美 股抛售压力。 疲软的就业数据和美联储的鸽派信息共同作用，使美元全面下跌。尽管美元在本周主要货币中仍保持领 先地位，但其领先优势显得脆弱。如果抛售持续到周末，美元可能会失去其周度领先地位。加元位居第 二，其次是日元。另一方面，欧元仍然是最弱的，其次是新西兰元和瑞士法郎。英镑和澳元位居中游。 但由于市场波动可能会持续，排名可能会在周末前发生变化。 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特指出，上周五（8月1日 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures closed at 9207 yuan/kg on July 14, with a daily increase of 2.11% and a trading volume of 1,093,003 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 9168 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 39 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, escalating trade tensions [1][2] Group 2 - Trump demanded that the EU eliminate tariffs to reduce the significant trade deficit, emphasizing the need for open market access [2] - The response from the EU and Mexico indicated that the tariffs are unfair and destructive, with commitments to continue negotiations for a broader trade agreement [1][2] - According to Guotou Futures, precious metals, including silver, are expected to remain volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of silver futures and the economic indicators from Japan, suggesting potential market movements and implications for investment strategies [1][2] - On June 23, the Shanghai silver futures closed at 8770 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.35% and a trading volume of 436,999 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was reported at 8707 yuan per kilogram, indicating a discount of 63 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures price [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has decided to slow down the reduction of bond purchases starting from the fiscal year 2026, amid concerns over the economic outlook and potential impacts of U.S. trade tariffs [1] - Japan's core inflation rate has remained above the central bank's 2% target for over three years, reaching a two-year high in May, which opens the door for further interest rate hikes [1] - The au Jibun Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that Japan's manufacturing sector returned to expansion for the first time since May 2024, rising from 49.4 to 50.4 in June [1] Group 3 - The trading strategy for silver futures indicates a recent trend of initial declines followed by rebounds, with a focus on adjusting the rebound target upwards [2] - The primary resistance level for silver futures is set at 8900, and if this level is breached, there is potential to test the 9000 psychological resistance zone [2] - The overall trading rhythm is expected to remain oscillating and slightly bearish [2]