尽管如此，博斯蒂克也承认，劳动力市场的变化同样需要密切关注。数据显示，截至2025年12月，美国 失业率已升至4.4%，高于2023年底的3.8%。不过，他指出，从历史角度看，4.4%的失业率仍处在"异常 强劲"的区间。即便近期裁员有所增加、职位空缺数量回落，博斯蒂克认为就业并非当前经济面临的最 大风险。 他还表示，与去年9月相比，企业高管对招聘市场的担忧已有所缓解，劳动力市场正在逐步走向一种相 对稳定的状态，这也为政策制定者在短期内"按兵不动"提供了空间。 在谈及宏观环境时，博斯蒂克指出，美国经济正经历明显的"扰动期"。特朗普政府的关税政策以及移民 政策变化，对企业经营和劳动力供给都带来了不小冲击，使美联储在平衡"物价稳定"和"充分就业"这两 大政策目标时面临更大挑战。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周四表示，通胀水平"过高且持续时间过长"，这要求货币政策继续保持"适 度限制性"的立场，以提高通胀回到2%目标的可能性。他在克拉克亚特兰大大学商学院的一场活动中指 出，稳定而偏紧的政策环境有助于增强美联储实现通胀目标的可信度。 根据最新预测，美联储偏好的通胀指标，个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数，在去年12月的同比涨幅 ...

Group 1 - The euro has rebounded from a three-week low but remains constrained below 1.1690, with a slight increase observed on Friday after hitting a daily low of 1.1645, although it is expected to see a weekly decline of 0.55% [1] - Strong U.S. GDP growth and a decrease in initial jobless claims have alleviated concerns about the U.S. economy, boosting the dollar and reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, exceeding the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending, although weak export activity partially offset this growth [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced new tariffs on heavy trucks, brand-name drugs, and cabinets, raising concerns about global trade uncertainty and negatively impacting risk appetite in Asian markets [2][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of a modest rise in overall PCE inflation to 2.7% [2][4] - Following the release of positive economic data, investors have reduced bets on Federal Reserve easing, with the probability of a rate cut in October dropping from over 90% to 87% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the stability of prices and high unemployment data, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [1][4][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations of 0.2%. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.1%, lower than the anticipated 0.3% [3] - The unemployment claims data indicated that initial claims for unemployment benefits remained stable at 248,000, exceeding market expectations of 240,000. The number of continuing claims rose to 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, suggesting prolonged job search times for unemployed individuals [5] Group 2 - The market reacted to the PPI and unemployment data, with U.S. stock indices showing slight gains, indicating investor optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve actions [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision on June 19, with a 61% probability of a rate cut in September and a 78% chance of two or more cuts by December, according to market expectations [7] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.891%, reflecting market sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy changes [7]