证券研究报告 经济渐入稳态，风偏继续提升 ——2026年经济与资产展望 大类资产首席分析师：孙付 SAC NO：S1120520050004 2025年11月4日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 核心观点 经济基本面展望： 政策展望： 2 ● 2026是"十五五"开局之年，技术革命浪潮风起云涌、科技自强自立迈向新征程，中国经济的全要素劳动生产率和 产业竞争力将继续提升，供给端优势将进一步显现。 外需：产业和产品的较强竞争力是支撑，中美经贸关系步入阶段性缓和，出口多元化格局进一步塑造，汇率保持相对弹 性，出口有望总体稳定。 内需：扩大内需是战略基点，短期政策刺激和长期机制完善将共同促内需。财政和货币政策将继续积极加码发力支持消 费和有效投资。统一大市场建设和要素市场化改革将清理内需扩张障碍，增进内需潜能。 ● 物价：在食品价格企稳、文娱消费延续回升、反内卷破除恶性价格竞争下，2026年物价将回升，预计CPI中枢0.6%， PPI中枢-0.8%，下半年GDP平减指数将转正。 ● GDP增速：综合经济增长趋势特征与宏观政策效能，预计2026年实际GDP增速在4.5%附近，名义GDP增速约4.7%，名义 增 ...

Group 1 - The core message from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is a warning to China to make concessions on trade and economic issues, or face escalated tensions from the U.S. [1][3] - Yellen's statements are seen as a psychological tactic aimed at pressuring China to comply with U.S. demands, such as reducing exports to the U.S. and opening more markets [5][9] - The backdrop of Yellen's remarks includes domestic economic challenges in the U.S., such as inflation and supply chain issues, as well as the shifting global economic landscape where China's influence is growing [7][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is concerned about China's advancements in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, which could threaten U.S. technological dominance [11][18] - Yellen's tough stance is also influenced by the political climate in the U.S., as upcoming elections create pressure for politicians to adopt a hardline approach towards China [9][20] - China's economic resilience and strategic partnerships globally provide it with leverage against potential U.S. sanctions, making a complete economic decoupling challenging for the U.S. [11][14] Group 3 - The potential for U.S. sanctions or embargoes on Chinese goods raises concerns about the impact on American consumers and businesses, as many rely on Chinese manufacturing [13][14] - The complexity of implementing sanctions is highlighted, as it could lead to significant disruptions in the U.S. economy, affecting prices and corporate operations [14][16] - The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is characterized as a long-term strategic battle, with both sides needing to maintain their positions without overreacting to threats [16][18]