智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑到行业逆风的影响，下调明源云(00909)2025年和2026年收入 预测18.0%和17.6%至12.7亿元和12.7亿元;考虑到公司的费用控制，将2025年和2026年经调整归母净利润 预测由-191万元和1,773万元上调至6,810万元和8,705万元。考虑到行业估值中枢上行，维持跑赢行业评 级和目标价3.5港元(基于5倍2025年市销率)。公司目前交易于5倍2025年市销率。 AI与海外市场成为重要的增长驱动 2025年上半年，明源云在AI领域的布局成果显著，云客AI产品上半年签约金额3,200万元，超过去年全 年的新签约金额(2,800万元)，AI投流、AI销售员、AI工牌等产品覆盖房地产营销核心环节，累计覆盖 约2,000个地产项目。而在海外市场，公司上半年实现约1,500万元的签约金额，发布面向不动产建筑公 司的安全及劳务管理平台Linkforce，2025年8月完成对日本不动产科技公司ASIOT株式会社的全资收购; 目前，明源云已在日本、中国香港和东南亚建立本地化团队，公司预计2025年全年海外产品签约金额为 5,000万元。 明源云2025年上半年收 ...

2025年上半年，受国内住宅市场逆风及公司优化部分产品线的影响，短期签约有所下降，导致部分业务 线收入承压。上半年公司云服务收入同比下滑14.3%至5.2亿元，其中客户关系管理/项目建设/资产管理 与运营/天际PaaS平台收入分别同比-13.1% / -25.5% / +2.0% / -23.5%至3.8亿 / 4,656万 / 4,724万 / 4,752万 元;本地化部署软件及服务收入同比下滑24.8%至8,112万元。展望2025年下半年，随着行业逐渐止跌回 稳、公司业务聚焦的影响逐渐得到消化，该行预计明源云下半年收入跌幅将收窄。 AI与海外市场成为重要的增长驱动 2025年上半年，明源云在AI领域的布局成果显著，云客AI产品上半年签约金额3,200万元，超过去年全 年的新签约金额(2,800万元)，AI投流、AI销售员、AI工牌等产品覆盖房地产营销核心环节，累计覆盖 约2,000个地产项目。而在海外市场，公司上半年实现约1,500万元的签约金额，发布面向不动产建筑公 司的安全及劳务管理平台Linkforce，2025年8月完成对日本不动产科技公司ASIOT株式会社的全资收购; 目前，明源云已在日本、中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is currently in a relatively smooth adjustment phase, with a significant decline in contract amounts affecting revenue expectations for the first half of 2025, leading to an anticipated revenue drop of 14.8% year-on-year to 610 million RMB [1] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 1.435 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 12.5%, with an adjusted net loss of 40 million RMB, an improvement from a loss of 170 million RMB in 2023, primarily due to a substantial reduction in expenses [2] - Total expenses for 2024 were 1.484 billion RMB, down 28.8% year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expenses decreasing by 17.8%, 53.0%, and 25.0% respectively [2] - The workforce has been reduced from 4,247 in 2021 to 1,912 by the end of 2024, with further reductions expected to 1,600-1,700 by mid-2025 [2] Business Line Performance - Customer relationship management revenue was 859 million RMB, down 9.2% year-on-year, with cloud customer revenue at 810 million RMB, a decline of 6.6% [2] - Project construction revenue decreased by 20.7% to 124 million RMB [2] - Asset management and operations revenue grew by 14.2% to 100 million RMB, driven by local city investment companies focusing on revitalizing existing real estate for operational gains [2] - Revenue from the Tianji PaaS platform fell by 24.6% to 112 million RMB, significantly impacted by reduced demand from residential developers [2] AI Product Development - The company has deepened its AI product matrix, with expected contract amounts for AI products in 2025 potentially exceeding expectations, aiming for 30 million RMB in the first half and 60 million RMB for the entire year [3] - In 2024, the cumulative contract amount for cloud customer AI products reached approximately 28 million RMB, covering around 1,000 real estate projects [3] - The integration of the DeepSeek large model into the company's AI digital marketing products has been successful, with applications in over 2,500 projects across three industries, achieving a daily inference volume exceeding 120,000 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down to 1.29 billion RMB and 1.24 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.25 billion RMB [4] - Non-GAAP net profit predictions for 2025-2026 are maintained at 57 million RMB and 108 million RMB, with a new forecast for 2027 at 175 million RMB [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The real estate industry is in a relatively smooth adjustment phase, with a significant decline in the company's contracted project amounts in 24H2, leading to a forecasted revenue drop of 14.8% year-on-year for 1H25, amounting to 610 million RMB [1] - The company is focusing on the commercialization of AI products, with expectations for AI product contract amounts in 2025 to exceed previous estimates, potentially reaching 60 million RMB [3] - The company has implemented strong cost control measures, which are expected to accelerate the path to breakeven, despite a downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 [4] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.435 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 12.5%, with an adjusted net loss of 40 million RMB, an improvement from a loss of 170 million RMB in 2023 [2] - The breakdown of revenue shows a decline in customer relationship management revenue by 9.2% to 859 million RMB, while asset management and operations revenue grew by 14.2% to 100 million RMB [2] AI Product Development - The company has launched multiple AI+ marketing products, with a total contract amount of approximately 28 million RMB for AI products in 2024, covering around 1,000 real estate projects [3] - The integration of the DeepSeek large model into the company's AI digital marketing products has been successful, with daily inference usage exceeding 120,000 [3] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 1.291 billion RMB and 1.243 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.25 billion RMB [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 57 million RMB and 108 million RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 175 million RMB [4]