山西证券主要观点如下： 供给 1-11月原煤供给边际递减。2025年1-11月，原煤累计产量实现44.02亿吨，同比增1.4%，同比增速边际下 滑。11月当月实现4.27亿吨，同比降0.5%，环比增4.93%。 智通财经APP获悉，山西证券发布研报称，关注煤炭盈利修复。11月煤价由涨转跌，从价格季节分布来 看，2025年和2024年以及2023年的煤价季节性走势规律一致，均呈现出"淡季不淡"和"旺季不旺"。前期 价格超预期上涨后，存在一定均值修复压力。寒潮来袭，旺季需求有所支撑。4季度业绩仍有改善预 期，若价格长期高位运行，26年业绩仍具备较大修复空间。股价下跌强化红利价值，可逢低配置。 价格 11月煤炭价格环比超预期上涨。25年以来虽然山西优混5500动力煤、京唐港主焦煤、天津港二级冶金焦 均价有所调整，但11月当月三个品种均价环比均有不同程度上涨。11月各品种环比增幅动力煤>焦炭炼 >焦煤。 点评 11月煤价由涨转跌。11月大部分时间煤价延续10月份的上涨趋势，核心逻辑为电厂补库。在下游电厂完 成补库后，煤价旺季有所回落。从价格季节分布来看，2025年和2024年以及2023年的煤价季节性走势规 律一致， ...

煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 领先大市-A(维持) 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025 年 12 月 17 日 行业研究/行业快报 进口：11 月煤炭进口环比回落，1-11 月进口量维持收缩趋势。2025 年 1-11 月进口量累计实现 4.32 亿吨，同比降 12.0%。11 月当月实现 4405 万吨， 同比降 19.88%，环比增 5.55%。 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 【山证煤炭】2026 年煤炭行业信用风险 观察与展望 2025.12.5 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 10 月进口环比收缩 2025.12.1 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 供给：1-11 月原煤供给边际递减。2025 年 1-11 月，原煤累计产量实现 44.02 亿吨，同比增 1.4%，同比增速边际下滑。11 月当月实现 4.27 亿吨，同 比降 0.5%，环比增 4.93%。 首选股票 评级 需求：1-11 月终端需求维持回落趋势，下游需求有待改善。25 年 1-11 月固定资产投资同比降 2.6%，其中制造业投资增 1.9%、 ...

2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业研究/行业快报 煤炭行业近一年市场表现 煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 领先大市-A(维持) 10 月：火电增速逆势向上，煤价上涨超预期 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解-25 年 9 月 国 内 煤 价 上 涨 带 动 进 口 量 提 升 2025.10.23 【山证煤炭】2025 年三季度煤炭债复盘- 平均期限继续创新高，平煤神马重组利 好存量债项 2025.10.22 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 10 月： 供给：1-10 月原煤供给边际递减。2025 年 1-10 月，原煤累计产量实现 39.73 亿吨，同比增 1.5%，同比增速边际下滑。10 月当月实现 4.07 亿吨，同 比降 2.3%，环比降 1.16%。 首选股票 评级 需求：1-10 月终端需求维持回落趋势，火电需求逆势向上。25 年 1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7%，其中制造业投资增 2.7%、基建投资降 0.1%、 房地产投资降 14.7%。25 年 1-10 月火电累计增速实现-0.4%；焦炭累计增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the coal industry investment rating to "Leading the Market" for the fourth quarter, indicating expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][37]. Core Insights - The coal price remained stable in September, with expectations for investment opportunities in the sector during the fourth quarter. The report highlights a potential recovery in coal prices and demand due to seasonal factors and policy changes [1][7]. - Domestic coal supply continues to contract, while coal imports are expected to increase as domestic production is controlled. The report suggests that if coal prices stabilize and rebound, this could further stimulate import demand [6][7]. - The report emphasizes that the fourth quarter may see better performance than the third quarter, with coal prices expected to recover due to limited supply growth and anticipated demand during the winter peak [7]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate is declining. In September alone, the output was 412 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year but up 5.38% month-on-month [4]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the first nine months of 2025 was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments. Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment up 4.0% and infrastructure investment up 1.1%. However, real estate investment fell by 13.9% [4]. Import Data Summary - In September, coal imports increased month-on-month, but the cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 34.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The September import volume was 46 million tons, down 3.34% year-on-year but up 7.64% month-on-month [5]. Price Analysis - In September, coal prices showed a stable upward trend, with different price movements across various coal types. The report notes that while prices for Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal and other types adjusted, they exhibited varying degrees of increase month-on-month [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal sector investments in the fourth quarter, highlighting that the overall valuation of the sector is low and there is potential for a rebound. Specific companies to watch include Jin Kong Coal Industry, Shan Coal International, and Huayang Co., with a focus on elastic varieties [7].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "synchronous with the market" [1][4]. Core Insights - The coal supply has shown a marginal decrease in growth, with a total output of 2.405 billion tons from January to June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, but the growth rate is slowing down. In June alone, the output was 421 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year [4][6]. - Demand for coal is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment growing by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, while real estate investment decreased by 11.2% [4][6]. - Coal imports have contracted significantly, with a total of 22.17 million tons imported from January to June 2025, down 11.1% year-on-year. In June, imports were 33.037 million tons, a decrease of 25.93% year-on-year [5][6]. - Coal prices are stabilizing after a decline, with signs of a rebound in June. The average price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal has decreased since the beginning of 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has been decreasing marginally, with a total output of 2.405 billion tons in the first half of 2025, and June's output was 421 million tons [4][6]. - Demand is primarily driven by non-electric sectors, with a notable increase in manufacturing and infrastructure investments [4][6]. Import and Price Trends - Coal imports have seen a significant reduction, with a total of 22.17 million tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.1% year-on-year decline [5][6]. - The coal prices are nearing the bottom, with a rebound observed in June, indicating a potential for future price stability [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the coking coal sector such as Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, while for thermal coal, companies like Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted [6].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "synchronous with the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coal industry has improved, leading to a rebound in the secondary market performance [4] - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal reached 1.985 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with May's production at 403 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][5] - The demand side is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.7% year-on-year, manufacturing investment up 8.5%, and infrastructure investment up 5.6% [4] - Coal prices are nearing the bottom, with a decline in the average prices of various coal types since the beginning of 2025 [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, raw coal supply showed a slight increase, while coal imports decreased significantly, with a cumulative import volume of 18.867 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [5][7] - The demand for non-electricity sectors is stronger than that for electricity, with thermal power cumulative growth at -3.1% and coke cumulative growth at 3.3% [4][5] Price Trends - The average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal has decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a downward trend in coal prices [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the coking coal sector such as Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, while for thermal coal, companies like Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted [6][7]