Core Viewpoint - The domestic tungsten market in China has strengthened post-holiday, with leading companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten raising long-term prices, reinforcing bullish market expectations and driving the average price of black tungsten concentrate to a record high of 733,500 yuan per standard ton on February 25, marking a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [3] Group 1: Price Movements - The average price of black tungsten concentrate reached a record high of 733,500 yuan per standard ton, with a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [3] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices also rose, recording a year-to-date increase of 61.94% [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - European tungsten market is experiencing a shortage of downstream inventory, leading to strong price increases during the Spring Festival holiday, contributing to a global price rise in tungsten [3] - Recent proposals from U.S. lawmakers to establish a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" may elevate tungsten's priority in overseas strategic stockpiling efforts [3] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - China has announced measures to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan, which may impact the tungsten supply chain [3] - U.S. President Trump has proposed increasing the military budget to $1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027, potentially sustaining high stockpiling levels overseas and further supporting price increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jiexin International Resources (03858) has seen a significant increase, driven by a strong recovery in the tungsten market post-holiday, with major companies raising long-term prices, indicating bullish market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiexin International Resources' stock rose over 6% in early trading, currently up 5.12% at HKD 89.25, with a trading volume of HKD 66.1346 million [1] - The average price of black tungsten concentrate reached a record high of CNY 733,500 per standard ton on February 25, marking a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) also saw a year-to-date increase of 61.94% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major tungsten companies, including Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry (002378) and Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842), have continued to raise long-term pricing, reinforcing bullish market expectations [1] - European tungsten market is experiencing a shortage in downstream inventory, contributing to a strong price increase during the holiday period, leading to a global price surge in tungsten [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Guojin Securities noted that U.S. lawmakers proposed a "strategic resilience reserve" with a scale of USD 2.5 billion, which may elevate tungsten's priority in overseas strategic reserves [1] - China's announcement regarding strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan and the U.S. President's plan to increase military spending to USD 1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027 may support continued high inventory levels abroad, further bolstering prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jaxin International Resources (03858) has risen over 6% in early trading, driven by strong demand and price increases in the tungsten market following the holiday period [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Jaxin International Resources' stock price increased by 5.12%, reaching 89.25 HKD, with a trading volume of 66.1346 million HKD [1] - The company is benefiting from a bullish market outlook as leading tungsten firms continue to raise long-term contract prices [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The domestic tungsten market has shown a strong recovery post-holiday, with black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a record high of 733,500 RMB per standard ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 61.74% [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices have also risen, with a year-to-date increase of 61.94% [1] - European tungsten market is experiencing a shortage in downstream inventory, contributing to a global price increase in tungsten [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Recent proposals from U.S. lawmakers to establish a "strategic resilience reserve" worth 2.5 billion USD may elevate tungsten's priority in overseas strategic stockpiling [1] - China's announcement regarding export controls on dual-use items to Japan and the U.S. military budget increase to 1.5 trillion USD for FY2027 may further support tungsten prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is expected to outperform other commodities like gold and lithium in 2025-2026, with tungsten prices having already increased by over 220% in 2025, surpassing gold's performance [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of February 25, 2025, the price of tungsten iron in Shanghai has exceeded 1.0225 million yuan per ton, a 3.7-fold increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - The price of black tungsten concentrate reached 705,000 yuan per ton in 2026, up 53.26% year-to-date, while ammonium paratungstate (APT) is priced at 1.05 million yuan per ton, up 56.72%, both hitting historical highs [5]. - China's tungsten reserves account for 52% of the global total, and its production represents 83%, making it the leading tungsten supplier globally [7]. - From 2025, China will tighten tungsten resource management, leading to a significant reduction in supply, with the first batch of tungsten concentrate mining quotas set at 58,000 tons, a 6.5% decrease from the previous year [7]. - Export controls on tungsten products will further tighten global supply, with a projected 27.5% decrease in tungsten exports in 2025 [7][8]. - The slow release of overseas tungsten production capacity will not compensate for the supply reduction from China, with new non-Chinese tungsten concentrate capacity expected to be less than 5,000 tons by 2026 [8]. Demand Growth - Tungsten's applications are expanding beyond traditional sectors into high-end fields such as renewable energy, military, and semiconductors [10]. - Key drivers of demand growth include photovoltaic tungsten wire and PCB drill bits, with strong demand from military and semiconductor sectors [11]. - Since September 2025, tungsten concentrate inventories have been depleting, leading to tight spot supply and increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [12]. Industry Profitability - The rise in tungsten prices is improving profitability across the industry, with significant benefits for resource-rich and high-end processing companies [15]. - Companies with their own tungsten resources, such as Zhangyuan Tungsten, are experiencing substantial profit increases, with stock prices rising over 136% this year [17]. - High-end processing companies, like Zhongtung High-tech, are also benefiting from price increases and strong demand for high-end tungsten products, with stock prices up over 112% [20]. Long-term Outlook - The ongoing rise in tungsten prices is expected to become a long-term norm rather than a short-term market speculation [14]. - The strategic value of tungsten is increasing amid global competition for strategic mineral resources, with China holding a dominant position in the tungsten market [25]. - The valuation logic for tungsten has shifted, with its dual attributes of being a strategic resource and high-end manufacturing material likely to enhance its valuation further [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is expected to outperform other commodities like gold and lithium in 2025-2026, driven by a combination of policy, resource constraints, and strong demand [1][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tungsten prices have surged over 220% in 2025, significantly outpacing gold [2]. - As of February 25, 2025, the price of tungsten iron in Shanghai reached 1.0225 million yuan per ton, a 3.7-fold increase from the previous year [4]. - The price of black tungsten concentrate has reached 705,000 yuan per ton in 2026, up 53.26% year-to-date, while ammonium paratungstate (APT) is at 1.05 million yuan per ton, up 56.72% [6]. - China's tungsten reserves account for 52% of the global total, with production at 83%, making it the dominant supplier [10]. - From 2025, China will tighten tungsten resource management, leading to a significant reduction in supply, with a 6.5% decrease in the first batch of tungsten concentrate mining quotas [10]. - Export controls on tungsten products will further tighten global supply, with a projected 27.5% decrease in tungsten exports in 2025 [10]. Market Performance - A-share tungsten stocks have shown remarkable performance, with companies like Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten seeing increases of 159.34% and 136% respectively [7]. - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with a projected global tungsten supply gap of 18,500 tons by 2026, increasing annually [15]. Industry Trends - The demand for tungsten is expanding beyond traditional applications into high-end sectors such as renewable energy, military, and semiconductors [12][13]. - The consumption of tungsten concentrate has been rising, with low inventory levels prompting downstream companies to replenish stocks, further driving up prices [14]. - Companies with proprietary tungsten resources, like Zhangyuan Tungsten, are expected to see significant profit increases due to rising prices [17]. Investment Opportunities - The price increase is benefiting the entire tungsten industry chain, particularly resource-rich and high-end processing companies [16]. - Institutions have set target prices for leading companies like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech, indicating potential upside of 19%-34% and 19%-27% respectively [19][24]. - The economic viability of tungsten recycling is improving, with the recycling rate expected to rise from 21% in 2023 to over 30% by 2025, benefiting companies like Xiamen Tungsten [26]. Strategic Importance - The ongoing rise in tungsten prices reflects a revaluation of strategic resources amid global competition, with China holding a pivotal role in the tungsten market [29].

Core Viewpoint - Jiajin International Resources (03858) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 78.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 64.246 million HKD, amidst a generally declining market for precious and base metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The tungsten market is performing strongly despite a broader decline in global precious and base metals [1] - As of the latest update, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate is 632,000 RMB per standard ton, reflecting a 37.4% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) is 940,000 RMB per ton, which is a 40.3% increase year-to-date [1] Group 2: Company Valuation - First Shanghai believes that the company's scarce tungsten mining resources are entering a phase of commercialization, indicating an imminent revaluation [1] - The company is at a critical point for value release and possesses world-class core assets, which lay the foundation for long-term growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jaxin International Resources (03858) has seen its stock price rise over 7%, reaching a new high of 92.25 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 40 billion HKD, driven by rising tungsten prices and strong market positioning [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price increased by 7.73%, trading at 92 HKD with a transaction volume of 170 million HKD [1] - The company achieved a new listing high, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in its market potential [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Tungsten powder prices have surpassed the 1.4 million RMB mark, while the price for 65% black tungsten concentrate is reported at 570,000 RMB per standard ton, reflecting a 23.9% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices are at 845,000 RMB per ton, showing a 26.1% rise year-to-date [1] Group 3: Company Positioning - First Shanghai highlights the company as a rare pure tungsten mining target in the market, suggesting a high safety margin and attractiveness of the current stock price [1] - CICC's research report emphasizes the company's focus on the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, expressing strong confidence in its future prospects due to a potentially tight global tungsten supply-demand balance and expected price increases [1] - The company is positioned to become a leading player in the Central Asian mining sector, supported by four core competitive advantages [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1% on December 17. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.04 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 3,724 stocks declined, while 1,578 stocks increased [1][2]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain led the market gains, with Tianhua New Energy (300390) rising over 13%, Jinyuan Co. (000546) achieving two consecutive limit-ups in four days, and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) hitting the daily limit. Hong Kong-listed Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) both increased by over 5% [3][4]. Lithium Market Insights - On December 17, lithium carbonate futures surged over 7%, reaching a new high since May 2024. Following the shutdown of mining operations by CATL (300750), the "Lithium Capital of Asia," Yichun, plans to cancel 27 mining rights. Analysts noted that lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 70% from their low point earlier in the year, with market expectations for lithium demand significantly improving following the release of November battery sales data [3][4]. Rare Metals and Other Sectors - The optical module sector saw a significant rebound, with major players like Guangku Technology (300620) leading with over a 5% increase. Rare metal stocks also strengthened, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) nearing a limit-up and reaching a historical high. Tungsten powder prices increased by 10,000 yuan per ton, now priced at 1 million yuan per ton, reflecting a 216.5% rise since the beginning of the year [5]. New Stock Performance - Muxi Co., known as the "second domestic GPU stock" and the "second most expensive new stock of the year," saw its shares soar over 700%, with a market capitalization nearing 335 billion yuan, surpassing Moer Thread. The stock's price reached 719.8 yuan, with potential profits exceeding 300,000 yuan per share [7]. Precious Metals Update - Silver prices reached a new historical high, with spot silver rising over 3% to 65.86 USD per ounce. The main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by over 4%. Gold also saw a sharp increase, touching 4,320 USD, with the World Gold Council projecting an average annual return of over 5% for gold from 2025 to 2040 [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten price maintains a stable upward trend, driven by a dual force of supply-side tightening and strategic premiums, while demand remains cautious with limited incremental contributions [1] Supply Side - The market for tungsten concentrate shows a tight supply, with holders adopting a wait-and-see attitude to support high prices [1] - The price of 65% black tungsten concentrate is reported at 336,000 RMB per standard ton, an increase of 135% since the beginning of the year [1] - The price of 65% white tungsten concentrate is reported at 335,000 RMB per standard ton, reflecting a 135.9% increase since the start of the year [1] Demand Side - Overall demand is cautious, primarily supported by downstream essential needs, with limited incremental contributions [1] - The recent announcement of the "artificial sun" research plan has strengthened market expectations regarding the application potential and development prospects of tungsten alloys in fusion energy [1] APT Market - In the ammonium paratungstate (APT) market, a tug-of-war between cost support and demand pressure is observed, leading to cautious purchasing and sales by manufacturers [1] - Domestic APT prices are reported at 490,000 RMB per ton, marking a 132.2% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - European APT prices range from 735 to 780 USD per ton (equivalent to 461,000 to 489,000 RMB per ton), reflecting a 129.6% increase since the start of the year [1]

Company Overview - Jiaxin International Resources (03858.HK) successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CICC as the sole sponsor [6] - The company is focused on developing the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which is projected to be the largest open-pit tungsten mine by WO3 resource volume globally by December 31, 2024 [6][7] - The Bakuta tungsten mine is also ranked as the fourth largest tungsten mine globally, including both open-pit and underground mines, with the largest designed tungsten production capacity [6][7] Financial Performance - The company reported losses of HKD 94.45 million, HKD 80.129 million, and HKD 177 million for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, totaling a cumulative loss of HKD 350 million over three years [9] - Commercial production is set to begin in April 2025, with a target mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore in 2025 [9] - The company expects to generate revenue of HKD 126 million from tungsten concentrate sales in the first six months ending June 30, 2025, with a gross profit of HKD 18 million, resulting in a gross margin of 14.2% [10] Market Dynamics - Global tungsten reserves increased from approximately 3.3 million tons in 2018 to 4.4 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% [12] - In 2023, global tungsten production was 78,000 tons, while consumption was approximately 124,100 tons, resulting in a significant supply gap of 46,100 tons, indicating strong demand for tungsten resources [12] - China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, with a projected reserve of 2.4 million tons in 2024, and is the leading producer, accounting for over 80% of global tungsten production [12][13] Strategic Plans - The net proceeds from the global offering will be allocated as follows: approximately 55% for capital costs of the Bakuta tungsten mine project, 10% for developing ammonium paratungstate (APT) production capacity, 25% for repaying part of the bank loans denominated in euros, and 10% for working capital and other general corporate purposes [14]