中金研究 展望2026年，我们以需求作为推演行业格局和企业竞争策略的出发点，辅以考虑当前盈利、龙头多业态发展成效，推荐顺序 ： 玻纤、消费 建材、玻璃、水泥 。 我们推荐以下三 条主线：①景气度延续，龙头维系固有优势，保持量、价稳中有增的板块，如玻纤（包括特种电子 布）、非洲建材；②需求有存量重装和多元化加持，能部分对冲新建需求下行风险，依托温和价格策略释放盈利压力的板块，如消费建 材；③需求偏向同质化且仍面临压力，但靠产能收缩或"反内卷"政策推动供给出清的大宗品，如浮法玻璃、水泥。 玻纤：结构升级拉开盈利差距，特种布延续高景气。 我们预期2026年粗纱行业净增产量40-50万吨，或维系良好的供需格局，高端粗纱如风电 有望迎接年度提价；普通粗纱和电子布或阶段性提价（关注3-4月、8-9月）。AI特种布我们判断二代布量价齐增的空间更大，其次看好低膨胀 纱和石英布。 消费建材：大浪淘沙，关注胜者盈利修复。 由于2026年新开工（同比-16%）、竣工（同比-7%）未见底，叠加小B需求待资金发力，需求仍直 面压力。但行业沉寂已久，积极信号渐近，包括①防水/涂料/石膏板迎来阶段性提价；②费用率或继续压降；③减值风险边际 ...

Company Status - The market is focusing on the company's high-end electronic yarn products, highlighting its leading capabilities in technology reserves and production line configuration compared to peers [1] - The demand for Low-Dk electronic fabrics is expected to grow due to AI-driven upgrades in the PCB industry, while low-expansion yarn demand is anticipated to increase driven by advanced chip packaging [1] Product Commentary - Low-expansion yarn is crucial for high-precision and high-heat dissipation electronic components, significantly impacting the reliability and lifespan of packaging [2] - The demand for low-expansion yarn is catalyzed by the increase in CoWoS packaging capacity, which requires efficient heat dissipation designs [2] - Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft are adopting low-expansion yarn, with domestic demand also rising [2] - According to SemiWiki, TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 35,000-40,000 pieces/month in 2024, increasing to 65,000-75,000 pieces/month in 2025, and 90,000-110,000 pieces/month in 2026, which will directly boost low-expansion yarn demand [2] Industry Supply Dynamics - Unlike low-dielectric products, the supply of low-expansion products is limited, with Nitto Denko's T-glass becoming the industry standard [3] - Current production capacity is insufficient to meet downstream demand, with existing suppliers like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology facing challenges in expanding capacity [3] - Zhongcai Technology plans to invest 1.4 billion yuan in a project to produce 35 million meters of specialty fiberglass cloth, which will enable the production of high-value-added products including second-generation electronic fabrics and low-expansion yarn [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 0.96 yuan and 1.15 yuan, respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 17x and 14x for those years [4] - The company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of 17.7 yuan, implying a 7% upside potential based on P/E ratios of 18x and 15x for 2025 and 2026 [4]