供给优化
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中金:建材行业盈利分化明显 关注供给优化
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-04 09:09
Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry experienced a year-on-year production decline of 7% in Q3 2025, with average prices also decreasing. However, the drop in raw material prices supported the gross profit per ton to remain stable year-on-year [1] - In Q4, coal prices rebounded, increasing by 8% in October compared to September, which may lead to marginal cost increases for cement [1] - If the industry strictly limits overproduction in 2026, capacity utilization rates could recover to over 60%, which, along with staggered production execution, may support industry profitability recovery [1] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - Key consumer building materials companies reported a combined revenue decline of 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a gross margin decrease of 1.2 percentage points, although the decline rate has narrowed [2] - The sector has implemented strict cost control measures, leading to a slight improvement in cash flow [2] - It is recommended to consider undervalued stocks in segments where supply and price competition are easing, such as home decoration coatings and waterproof materials, as well as in stable demand sectors like coatings and gypsum boards [2] Group 3: Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector saw improvements in both revenue and gross margin year-on-year in Q3 2025, with stable prices for wind power yarn and thermoplastic short-cut products [3] - There is potential for price increases in both roving and electronic fabrics, indicating a balanced industry outlook for 2026 [3] - Special glass fiber fabrics are expected to maintain rapid growth driven by AI advancements [3] Group 4: Glass Industry - The glass industry continues to face pressure from construction, with float glass profitability at a low point [4] - Looking ahead to 2026, after price declines in the off-season, some cash flow-negative capacities may undergo cold repairs, which could gradually improve supply-demand relationships [4]