AI 算力又一瓶颈，芯片封装基板供应短缺 20260302 摘要 IC 载板作为 PCB 高端领域，国产渗透率低，增长空间大，是 PCB 板块 中值得重点关注的细分方向，尤其是在"算力相关 PCB 创新"之外。 2025 年载板行情未充分发酵，因 BT 载板与存储周期相关，涨价早幅度 大；ABF 载板下游分散，涨价滞后。上游材料供给约束是 2025 年载板 涨价的重要驱动，而非单纯的需求拉动。 2026 年 BT 载板将延续涨价趋势，ABF 载板也开始涨价，主要驱动力来 自材料端供给约束叠加需求端结构性增量，ABF 载板逐步成为 GPU 生 产的瓶颈环节。 海外载板厂积极扩产，但上游材料端扩产节奏偏慢，难以匹配下游需求 增长，预计 2026 年行业涨价具有较强必然性，供需偏紧状态预计仍将 延续。 国内 ABF 载板体系化推进始于 2021 年，虽在外资客户体系中仍较难达 到向英伟达供货的要求，但在国内多类应用场景中技术能力已逐步达标， 国产替代正在进行中。 Q&A 在 PCB 产业链中，IC 载板（BT 与 ABF）应如何定位，当前投资关注点是什 么？ IC 载板属于 PCB 环节中技术门槛最高、价值量最高的 ...

玻纤概念多股大涨， 国际复材涨超15%，续创历史新高，此前 山东玻纤涨停， 长海股份、 中国巨石、 宏和科技、 中材科技涨幅靠前。消息面上，供应商和业内人士预计，由于成本上升和供应紧张，玻璃 纤维制造商将掀起第二轮涨价潮。计划中的月度调价幅度为10%至15%，若按当前计划推进，到年底价 格可能翻倍。此次预期涨价是在2025年以来累计年涨幅超过50%的基础上进行的。 据 中国银河 证券， 因特种玻纤布紧缺，玻纤厂家为寻求更高利润主动调整产品结构，将传统电子布产能转向生产特种玻纤 布，进而导致传统电子布整体供应也出现缺口。2026年2月4日，光远新材、国际复材上调电子纱及电子 布报价，其中7628传统电子布市场报价上调0.5-0.6元/米，此次上调幅度较之前显著扩大。（格隆汇） ...

据上证报报道，供应商和业内人士预计，由于成本上升和供应紧张，玻璃纤维制造商将掀起第二轮涨价 潮。计划中的月度调价幅度为10%至15%，若按当前计划推进，到年底价格可能翻倍。此次预期涨价是 在2025年以来累计年涨幅超过50%的基础上进行的。 中材科技：玻璃纤维产品结构优化，价格同比上升，对主营利润贡献较大。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 研究机构指出，特种玻纤布应科技时代而生。在算力时代下，AI硬件和终端设备均对芯片材料提出更 高要求，使得Low-DK，LowCTE纤维布迎来大规模放量，其中Low-DK用于主板基材，LowCTE用于芯 片封装基板。因AI需求爆发且供给壁垒高，均出现供不应求局面。未来在数据通信日趋高速且大容量 背景下，特种玻纤布将迎来量价齐升。 公司方面，据上证报表示， 宏和科技：称电子级玻璃纤维布市场需求量增加，公司产品售价受市场需求影响而增加，2025年公司预 计净利润为1.927-2.255亿元，同比增长745-889%。 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market concluded the "Year of the Snake" with all major indices showing positive performance: Shanghai Composite Index increased by 25.58%, Shenzhen Component Index rose by 38.84%, and ChiNext Index surged nearly 60% [1][2] - In the last week before the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to close at 4082.07 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39% to 14100.19 points [2] Stock Performance - Over 800 stocks in the A-share market recorded gains exceeding 100% during the "Year of the Snake," with top performers including Weit New Materials (1836.53%), Tianpu Co. (942.69%), and Jiangnan New Materials (856.05%) [2] - The decline was primarily seen in ST stocks, with significant losses reported by companies such as ST Aowei and ST Yanshi [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, national defense, machinery, and media sectors all saw cumulative gains exceeding 50%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at a 112.63% increase [3] Semiconductor Sector Insights - The STAR 50 Index experienced a strong performance, rising by 3.37% in the last week before the holiday, with top gainers including Chipone Technology (43.71%) [4] - A report from the Semiconductor Industry Association indicated that global semiconductor sales are expected to reach a record $791.7 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25.6%, and China's semiconductor sales surpassing $200 billion with over 15% growth [4] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor both external market dynamics and domestic policy changes during the Spring Festival [5][6] - The demand for specialty fiberglass cloth is expected to grow significantly due to AI computing power, with limited global suppliers leading to a supply-demand imbalance and rising prices [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with the three major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell by 0.96% to 3295.99 points. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4105.04 points, down 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14187.44 points, down 0.67% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding, aerospace, high-bandwidth memory, digital watermarking, space station concepts, and intellectual property sectors showed strong performance, while the CPO concept, small metals, photovoltaic equipment, shipping ports, mining, and glass fiber sectors lagged behind [1] - The military industry sector led the gains, with stocks like Yaxing Anchor Chain hitting the daily limit. The semiconductor sector was also active, with significant increases in photolithography machines and materials [2] Individual Stock Movement - Over 2600 stocks in the market experienced declines, indicating a broad-based sell-off [3] Institutional Insights - According to Zhongyin Securities, the real estate market is expected to improve by 2026, with recommendations to focus on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in key cities, as well as those making significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition [4] - Galaxy Securities highlighted the increasing demand for specialty fiberglass cloth driven by AI computing power, predicting a continued high demand due to technological advancements in electronic information technology [4] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the decline in residential sales prices across 70 major cities narrowed in January 2026, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [5] Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China plans to issue 50 billion yuan in central bank bills on February 25, 2026, to enhance the RMB financial product offerings in Hong Kong and improve the yield curve [6] Regulatory Changes - Recent reforms in refinancing regulations by the three major exchanges are expected to benefit leading brokerage firms, with many planning to leverage these changes to enhance their investment banking services [7] - Smaller brokerages are looking to differentiate themselves by focusing on the North Exchange's refinancing market as a key development area [8]

银河证券指出，AI算力驱动特种玻纤布需求高增，高景气有望延续。电子信息技术正朝着高频高速、 高集成化方向突破，AI服务器、5G基站、数据中心交换机等终端产品技术迭代迅速，对信号传输速度 与稳定性要求持续提升，直接驱动覆铜板性能迭代升级。电子布作为增强材料应用在覆铜板中，在AI 算力需求爆发式增长背景下，具备低介电常数、低介电损耗、低热膨胀系数的特种玻纤布市场需求快速 攀升。受限于较高的生产技术壁垒，目前全球特种玻纤布供应商数量稀缺，特种玻纤布处于供不应求状 态，价格持续走高。2025年玻纤厂家虽加速产能布局，但产能释放存在滞后周期，叠加AI算力需求高 景气持续，预计特种玻纤布供应紧缺态势仍将延续。建议关注两个投资方向：1）AI需求爆发及国产替 代加速，特种玻纤布高景气持续，价格有望继续增长，具备特种玻纤产品生产技术的企业业绩弹性较 大；2）产能转产带动传统电子布供应紧缺，价格持续上涨，企业盈利有望修复。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global supply of specialty fiberglass cloth is currently limited due to high production technology barriers, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and rising prices. This situation is expected to persist, especially with the continued high demand for AI computing power, which will further support the tight supply of high-end specialty fiberglass cloth and impact traditional electronic cloth production capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for specialty fiberglass cloth is rapidly increasing due to the explosive growth in AI computing power, which drives the need for high-performance materials in electronic products such as AI servers and 5G base stations [2]. - The production capacity for fiberglass is expected to increase by 2025; however, the release of this capacity will face delays, maintaining the supply shortage of specialty fiberglass cloth [2][3]. - Traditional electronic cloth supply is also tightening as manufacturers shift production towards specialty fiberglass cloth, leading to price increases for traditional electronic cloth [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Several fiberglass companies, including China National Materials and Honghe Technology, are projected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with expected net profit increases of 173.76%-251.97% and 745%-889%, respectively, driven by rising demand and prices for electronic cloth [4]. - The overall profitability of the fiberglass industry is anticipated to continue recovering, with expectations of further price increases for electronic cloth due to sustained high demand for AI computing [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Two investment directions are suggested: 1) Focus on companies with specialty fiberglass production capabilities, such as China National Materials and Honghe Technology, which are likely to benefit from the ongoing high demand and price growth [5]. 2) Consider companies like China Jushi that have advantages in traditional electronic cloth production capacity and cost, as they are expected to benefit from the tightening supply and rising prices [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

Group 1: Metal Sector - Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 44.12 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 75.75 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 25.82 to 15.04[9] - The company has a comprehensive production capacity of 305,000 tons of green aluminum and 140,000 tons of alumina, positioning it as a leader in the green aluminum sector[18] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 23% by 2024, maintaining a strong ROE of 15.6%[24] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 24.16 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 36.58 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 18.60 to 12.29[9] - China National Materials (002080.SZ) is expected to see its net profit rise from CNY 8.92 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.87 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 68.38 to 23.57[9] Group 3: Transportation Sector - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 101.70 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 124.78 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio declining from 18.82 to 15.34[9] - The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SH) is expected to see a slight increase in profit, with a PE ratio of 1973.38 in 2024, dropping to 1758.94 by 2026[9] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Senqcia (002984.SZ) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 21.86 billion in 2024, with a PE ratio of 10.03, expected to rise to CNY 21.26 billion by 2026[9] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 9.50 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 39.34 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 46.64 to 11.27[9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in the building materials sector as it transitions from a period of intense competition to one focused on value extraction and growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in the Building Materials Sector - Four key investment themes are highlighted: traditional building material leaders emerging from the bottom of the cycle, overseas capacity expansion, high-demand new materials, and policy support for industry consolidation [5]. - Traditional building material leaders are expected to recover first, with a focus on alpha opportunities as the sector stabilizes [14]. - The overseas expansion of building material capacity is driven by high demand in foreign markets, particularly in Africa, where Chinese companies are increasingly investing [20][22]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in real estate indicators expected in 2026, leading to a potential rebound in demand [15]. - Strong alpha leaders in the sector are anticipated to achieve positive revenue growth first, with companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong highlighted as key players [15][16]. - Profit margins are expected to improve in 2026 due to price stabilization, structural optimization, and enhanced operational efficiency [15]. Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with demand expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 [5][25]. - The report notes that the profitability of traditional glass fiber products is on an upward trajectory, with leading companies benefiting from differentiated product advantages [5][28]. Group 4: Cement Industry - The domestic cement market is facing a decline in demand, with expectations of a 7% drop in 2025 and a 6% drop in 2026, while overseas markets remain robust [5][31]. - The report suggests that supply-side policies will play a crucial role in stabilizing the market, with potential profitability improvements anticipated in 2026 [5][36]. Group 5: Glass Industry - The glass industry is expected to see supply optimization as a key theme in 2026, with a slight decline in demand for float glass anticipated [5][40]. - The photovoltaic glass segment is projected to experience a balanced supply-demand situation, with potential profitability improvements if production resumes [5][45].