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同程旅行(0780.HK):成本费用具持续优化空间 聚焦提升用户价值
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 20:01
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 4.669 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and an adjusted net profit of 775 million yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was 1.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.4%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 65.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the adjusted net profit margin was 16.6%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from accommodation booking services was 1.371 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing services generated 1.881 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year [2] - Other business revenue reached 755 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, while vacation business revenue was 662 million yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to Q1 2025 [2] User Metrics - The cumulative number of service users reached 1.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with annual paid users hitting a record high of 252 million [2] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for the first half of 2025 increased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the number of paid "Black Whale" members grew by 24% year-on-year [2] Business Development - The company's hotel management business is growing rapidly, with over 2,700 hotels under the "Elong" brand, and plans to acquire Wanda's hotel management business to enhance its high-end hotel brand matrix [2] - The company is expanding its services into niche markets, with a significant increase in transfer passenger flow at regional airports and a strong growth in first-time users of air travel services [2] - The company's self-owned app maintained strong growth in daily active users, reaching a historical high before the May Day holiday, and increased investment in social media to attract younger, experience-focused users [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.6 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits of 3.32 billion yuan, 3.71 billion yuan, and 4.22 billion yuan for the same period [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17X, 15X, and 13X for net profit, and 14X, 12X, and 11X for adjusted net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 [3]
同程旅行(00780):利润率持续改善,关注国际扩张表现
Guohai Securities· 2025-05-26 04:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profit margins, with a focus on international expansion performance [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform generated revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing reached 2 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from increased demand and enhanced value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, with international hotel night volume growing over 50% [6]. - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 590 million yuan, down 11.8% year-over-year, due to safety issues in Southeast Asia [6]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year [6]. - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with 68% of new paying users from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.7 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan [8]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD per share [8].