Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Chinese discretionary consumption sector [2] Core Insights - The overall consumption in China has received some support from national policies and e-commerce platform subsidies, but competition among brands and retailers has intensified, leading to potential risks of underperformance in earnings for many companies [2][3] - The report anticipates that the recovery of the current consumption cycle may take longer compared to the 2010s, which could result in faster capital rotation and less patience from investors [2] - Chinese companies are becoming increasingly competitive overseas, with international expansion seen as a significant growth driver for profitability [2] Summary by Sections Overall Consumption Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's total retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year, but there was a slowdown in sales data during the second quarter [5][6] - The home appliance sector showed strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 30.7% due to trade-in subsidies, supporting overall retail data [5][6] E-commerce and Competitive Landscape - The 618 shopping festival saw a total GMV of 855.6 billion RMB, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, but the competition was tougher than in 2024, leading to challenges for brands [5][6] - The report predicts that the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival will continue this trend of intense competition, potentially leading to downward adjustments in earnings guidance for many companies [5][6] Sector-Specific Insights Home Appliances - The report expects the central government's trade-in subsidies for durable goods to be extended into the second half of 2025, but the marginal benefits may decline due to previously released demand [5][6] - A potential price war is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to demand slowdown and competition from emerging brands [5][6] Tourism - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from continued consumer demand for experiential consumption, although domestic air travel has slowed down in 2025 [5][6] - The report is optimistic about leading companies in the hotel sector outperforming the industry, with expectations of moderate year-on-year recovery in RevPAR metrics [5][6] Toys and Jewelry - The toy and jewelry sectors are currently performing strongly, with expectations for continued momentum into the second half of 2025 [5][6] - The overseas market is seen as a bright spot for toy companies, despite tariff threats, with new product launches anticipated in the fourth quarter [5][6] Apparel - The apparel sector's performance in the second quarter of 2025 was below expectations, leading to increased competition among brands in the Chinese market [5][6] - High-end brands are expected to accelerate their overseas expansion, albeit at the cost of some profit margins [5][6] Valuation and Market Outlook - The report notes that the consumption sector's valuations remain at historically low levels, with only a few leading companies showing higher valuations due to market concentration [9][10] - Without significant economic stimulus, the recovery of the consumption sector's profitability may take longer than previous cycles, limiting the upward movement of valuation multiples [9][10] Stock Selection Logic - The report highlights specific companies such as Anta, Tongcheng Travel, Pop Mart, and Blokus as having strong potential for growth both domestically and internationally [2][5]

Group 1 - The 15th National Games and the 12th National Paralympic Games have secured sponsorship agreements totaling approximately 232 million yuan, involving 13 sponsors for the National Games and 12 sponsors for the Paralympic Games [1][2] - Anta Group has unveiled the design scheme for the sports uniforms for the National Games, themed "Co-creating Splendor, Shared Prosperity in the Greater Bay Area," incorporating elements of regional collaboration and eco-friendly materials [2][3] - Companies participating in the sponsorship expressed pride and commitment to enhancing the event experience for athletes and spectators, aiming for mutual benefits and brand enhancement through their involvement [2][4] Group 2 - Guangzhou Yikang Medical will provide advanced rehabilitation robots for the Paralympic Games, supporting athlete training and recovery, while also promoting a three-tier rehabilitation ecosystem [3] - Zhuhai Weihong Medical donated 2,000 AED devices to improve emergency medical response during the events, highlighting the importance of portable emergency equipment in saving lives [3] - China People's Insurance Group will offer comprehensive risk coverage for the events, ensuring safety and security through a combination of insurance and risk reduction services [3]

Core Viewpoint - Anta has become the official sports equipment partner for the 15th National Games, showcasing its commitment to providing comprehensive sports apparel and services for the event [2][4]. Group 1: Sponsorship Details - Anta will provide full sponsorship for sports apparel for the first time at the National Games, ensuring that all staff, technical officials, volunteers, torchbearers, referees, and media receive high-performance sports clothing and footwear [4]. - The design theme for the sponsored products is "Colorful Co-creation, Great Bay Common Prosperity," incorporating city silhouettes and emblem colors, symbolizing interconnectedness among regions [4][5]. Group 2: Cultural and Environmental Aspects - The equipment for the Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau delegations will reflect local architectural features and floral elements, showcasing the diverse charm of Lingnan culture [5]. - Anta's sponsorship gear will utilize sustainable materials and low-carbon processes, aligning with the brand's commitment to environmental values while ensuring professional performance [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's pretax sales revenue, including wholesale and retail, declined by a mid-single digit percentage year-over-year [3] - The gross margin for directly operated stores decreased by 4.4% year-over-year and 2.1% compared to August [6] - The company expects full-year profit to decline by 35% to 45% based on market expectations [25][46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail performance was slightly better than wholesale, with online channels driving overall retail sales [3][4] - Direct-to-consumer online sales accounted for approximately 40% of total direct retail sales, showing a year-over-year increase [4] - Same-store traffic showed slight improvement compared to the first half of the year, but overall performance remained negative [5][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that foot traffic in offline channels weakened during the quarter, although there was some improvement compared to H1 [5][17] - The average store size continued to show year-over-year growth, despite a high single-digit decline in total same-store sales [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is strategically prioritizing inventory management and plans to utilize various promotional activities to improve inventory positions [2][3] - There is a focus on omni-channel operation efficiency, including precision store openings, renovations, and closures [7] - The company aims to collaborate with brand partners to achieve planned inventory improvements by the end of the year [5][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the offline retail network, believing that opportunities still exist despite current pressures [17][19] - The company remains committed to inventory optimization and expects to see improvements by the end of the fiscal year [45][66] - Management highlighted strong commitments from brand partners to the China market and the intention to strengthen collaborations [67] Other Important Information - The company capitalized on major online shopping festivals, resulting in double-digit worldwide growth in overall online sales [4] - The company is taking a proactive approach to store closures, particularly for underperforming locations [6][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about NACI's performance and market outlook - Management discussed recent communications with NACI's new global CEO, emphasizing the importance of the China market and potential synergies in product offerings [12][13] Question: Future offline retail network considerations - Management acknowledged pressures in the offline retail network but maintained a positive outlook, emphasizing the need for omni-channel operations [17][19] Question: Clarification on sales performance and profit guidance - Management confirmed that while Q3 performance was better than expected, they still anticipate a decline in profits for the full year [25][26] Question: Discount rates and inventory management - Management explained that discount rates have deepened due to inventory clearance efforts and increased online sales, but they are optimistic about inventory management [29][30] Question: E-commerce performance and strategies - Management highlighted the growth of online sales, particularly through live streaming and private channels, and emphasized the importance of resource allocation to online sales [33][35] Question: Store rental fees and brand support - Management indicated that store rental fees will depend on negotiations with property management companies and noted strong brand support for the China market [40][42] Question: Inventory synchronization with NACI - Management outlined strategies for inventory control and collaboration with NACI to optimize inventory levels [61][63]