[微风]2025年的中国商业版图上，上演着极其魔幻的"冰火两重天"。随着新任日本首相高市早苗抛出"台海有事即介 入"的狂言，舆论场瞬间被点燃。这股情绪不仅是网上的声讨，更直接传导到了股市，单是日本高端百货代表三越 伊勢丹的股价应声暴跌，美妆巨头资生堂也惨遭重挫。 热销商品外衣下的"隐藏色" 中国文旅部发出谨慎赴日提醒的当口，三菱汽车无奈退场，曾经随处可见的日产和本田，在华销量也连番下滑，甚 至要靠降价续命。 在日系品牌要全面"败走麦城"的时候，走进任意一家热闹的商场或超市，出现了另一番截然不同的景象。 货架上，孩子们最爱的"小红瓶"养乐多依旧是销售冠军。收银台前，手里拿着三得利乌龙茶和格力高饼干的年轻人 排着长队。平价西餐厅萨莉亚门口，甚至因为排号的人太多造成了拥堵。 这一冷一热的背后，是曾经占据中国市场30%份额的日系车如今跌到10.8%的历史低点，日本家电被美的、海尔挤 压到市场份额不足8%时，真正的"猎手"其实早已换了身份，在市场里完成了完美转变。 这种"隐身术"的第一层，叫作"深度本土化"。 很多人至今都觉得三得利是某个福建的茶企，毕竟它的瓶身上醒目地标着"原料产自福建"，甚至还贴心推出了桂 花、橘皮 ...

Core Insights - Yakult is experiencing significant operational challenges in the Chinese market, leading to the closure of its first factory in Guangzhou on November 30, following the closure of its Shanghai factory less than a year ago, indicating a strategic contraction in its business operations in China [3][5][6] Production Capacity Adjustment - The closure of the Guangzhou factory is part of a broader strategy to enhance competitiveness and sustainability in the Chinese market, consolidating three factories into two to optimize production efficiency and resource allocation [4][5] - The company aims to alleviate financial losses due to declining sales and increased competition from local brands like Mengniu and Yili, which are squeezing Yakult's market share [3][6] Sales Performance - Yakult's sales in China have significantly declined, with daily sales figures dropping from a peak of 760.9 million bottles to 447.2 million bottles in the first half of 2025, reflecting a substantial decrease in market demand [6][8] - The sales performance of Yakult's Shanghai and Guangzhou operations was reported at only 81.1% and 88.7% of the previous year's figures, respectively, indicating a stark contrast to other regions where sales exceeded 95% [6] Market Competition and Consumer Trends - The overall market for probiotic beverages is facing challenges, with declining average prices and market shares, affecting not only Yakult but also competitors like Jianye Health [9] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards low-sugar and low-fat options, which traditional probiotic drinks like Yakult do not meet, leading to a disconnect with current market demands [8][10] Innovation and Product Development - Yakult has struggled to innovate beyond its core probiotic drink offerings, with recent product launches being mere flavor variations rather than new product categories [9][10] - Competitors are rapidly innovating, with brands like Mengniu and New Hope expanding their product lines to include low-sugar options and ready-to-eat probiotic products, putting further pressure on Yakult [9][10] Operational Efficiency - The company is facing challenges with its dispersed production layout, which has led to inefficiencies in supply chain coordination and increased fixed costs [7] - By consolidating production to newer facilities, Yakult aims to improve capacity utilization from 42% to 65%, enhancing cash flow and operational efficiency [7] Employee Impact - The closure of the Guangzhou factory raises concerns about employee layoffs, following a previous round of layoffs at the Shanghai facility, where approximately 800 employees were let go [7][10] Strategic Recommendations - To remain competitive, Yakult should focus on product innovation, channel expansion, and marketing upgrades, including increasing R&D investment to meet new consumer demands and exploring new retail channels [10][11] - Avoiding price wars and instead emphasizing the differentiation of its probiotic strains could help Yakult reposition itself in the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - Yakult is undergoing significant restructuring in China, closing key production facilities in Guangzhou and Shanghai due to declining sales and increased competition, indicating a critical challenge for the brand in maintaining its market position [4][6][9]. Group 1: Factory Closures - Yakult announced the closure of its Guangzhou factory, effective November 30, as part of a strategy to optimize production and manage resources more effectively [4][6]. - The Guangzhou factory's closure follows the earlier shutdown of the Shanghai factory, signaling a retreat from core production areas in East China [9]. - Following these closures, Yakult's production bases in China will reduce from six to five, consolidating operations to address declining sales [11]. Group 2: Sales Decline - Daily sales in Guangzhou have dropped significantly from 282 million bottles in 2021 to 149 million bottles in early 2025, indicating nearly a 50% decline [6][7]. - Nationally, Yakult's daily sales fell from 597.4 million bottles in 2019 to 383.1 million bottles in early 2025, reflecting a broader trend of declining demand [9]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Increased competition from local brands like Mengniu and Yili, which offer lower-priced alternatives, has intensified market pressure on Yakult [14][15]. - Changing consumer preferences towards low-sugar and healthier options have diminished Yakult's appeal, as its products are perceived as high in sugar [15][18]. - The brand's reliance on its flagship product, the "small red bottle," has hindered its ability to adapt to market changes and consumer demands [20]. Group 4: Strategic Missteps - Yakult's failure to innovate beyond its core product line has left it vulnerable in a rapidly evolving market, where consumers are seeking diverse and healthier options [20]. - The company's delayed response to the rise of online channels and community-based sales has further exacerbated its market share loss [20].

Core Insights - The company Yakult is undergoing significant operational restructuring in China, including the closure of its first factory in Guangzhou, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance competitiveness and achieve sustainable development in the market [2][4]. Performance Decline - Yakult's average daily sales in Guangzhou for the first quarter of this year were only 1.49 million bottles, which is less than half of the 2.82 million bottles sold daily in 2021 [4]. - Nationally, Yakult's daily sales peaked at 7.61 million bottles in 2019 but have since dropped to 4.44 million bottles in 2024, representing a decline of over 40% [4]. - The company's net sales for the first three quarters of the 2025 fiscal year showed a slight decrease of 0.4%, while operating profit fell by 9.2% [4][5]. Market Challenges - The closure of the Guangzhou factory is attributed to aging equipment and excess production capacity due to declining sales [2][6]. - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with local dairy companies launching similar products, which has eroded Yakult's market dominance [6][7]. - Consumer perceptions have shifted, with a growing skepticism towards health claims associated with probiotics, further impacting sales [9]. Strategic Responses - In response to market challenges, Yakult has introduced new product variations, including low-sugar options and flavored drinks to cater to changing consumer preferences [9][10]. - Despite these efforts, overall sales remain significantly below peak levels, indicating that the company is facing both external competition and internal brand challenges [10].