Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Short Put [7] Core Views - The current high copper price is suppressing downstream consumption, and the short - term demand is difficult to improve, with the spot premium continuing in a low - level shock [1][2] - The rise in copper prices is mainly due to Trump's relatively mild stance on trade disputes and positive expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [7] - The consumption of refined copper rods and copper cables shows a "not prosperous in peak season" feature, and it is expected that the overall consumption will remain sluggish next week [5][6] Key Points from Each Section Market News and Important Data - From October 25, 2025, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper ranged from 84,955 yuan/ton to 86,420 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with a downward oscillation [1] - LME inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 13.64 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 10.48 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 18.16 million tons, and bonded area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons. Comex inventory rose by 0.24 million tons to 34.8 million tons [1] Macro - economic Situation - In the week of October 25, 2025, the unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in September was 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1%, with a slight inflation rebound. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in the October FOMC meeting was still as high as 98.3% [2] - The preliminary US manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8, all better than expected and higher than in September [2] - Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee boosted market expectations for future policies and infrastructure demand [2] Mining and Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 25, 2025, the spot market trading was light. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchasing willingness, and the processing fee weakened [2] - Angola's Tetelo Copper Mine is about to be put into production, with an annual capacity of about 25,000 tons. Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for Europe to a new high of $345/ton in 2026 [2] - China's copper concentrate imports in September decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to refinery maintenance in Zambia, unfavorable price ratios, and logistics and power constraints in Africa [2] Smelting and Import - In the week of October 25, 2025, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The weekly average prices of bills of lading and warehouse receipts were $51.2/ton and $36.8/ton respectively, down $0.6 and $7.4 respectively from the previous week [3] - The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price dropped to $7.8/ton, and some transactions were at a discount. The current import loss is about 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - PPC has negotiated to postpone the shipment of some November long - term orders. The bonded inventory decreased to 9.28 million tons this week, and it is expected to rise slightly in the future [3] Scrap Copper - The copper price oscillated upward, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton. The price of Guangdong bright copper rose to 77,800 - 78,000 yuan/ton [4] - The sales sentiment index of recycled copper raw material holders rose to 2.36, and the purchasing sentiment of recycled copper rod enterprises also slightly increased to 2.43 [4] - The average weekly refined - scrap price difference was 3,343 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. The imported recycled copper raw material in September was 184,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. It is expected that the refined - scrap price difference will further widen to 3,500 yuan/ton [4] Consumption - In the week of October 25, 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a slight decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the previous week. The consumption of cables and enameled wires was mainly for rigid demand [5] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises slightly increased to 62.34%, but new orders generally slowed down. It is expected that the operating rate of copper cables will slightly drop to 61.89% next week, and overall consumption will be hard to improve [5][6] Strategy - For copper, the operation next week can be mainly based on buying hedges on dips in the range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton. If the copper price breaks through the previous high, enterprises with selling - hedge needs can appropriately conduct selling - hedge operations [7] - Arbitrage operations are suspended, and the option strategy is short put [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]

004月8日，贵州孵化公众号上发布消息称"谈疏铁钢铁理氟"耦合循环一体化项目在贵阳市开阳目双流镇测永村开工，2万吨/年六氟减酸锂等项目开工。据了解，该项目是以磷的主导 的全资源循环播合产业示范项目，中核铂目、贵州降化及其他产业方与贵阳市人民政府签署合作协议。通过建设140万吨七水顽棱亚铁联产40万吨铁白粉、60万吨磷旋铁、60万吨磷酸铁 理、15万吨碳酸锂、1万吨氟化锂、2万吨元氰磷酸锂、10万吨铜冶炼、磷石膏分解制动酸、热电联产项目、公铺工程项目来打造具有全球等务力频能源电池材料研发和生产基地。 0组:BSMT 降，4月海关公布的进口再生铜原锌数据显示，3月再生铜原料进口量为18.97万突物吨，环比减少28%，同比减少12.07%。折分来源国来看，前五来源国分别为日本、美国、泰 国、马来西亚和中国台湾，日本进口量达2.7万实物吨，环比增加16%，一举跃升至第一名，美国进口量2.2万弈物吨，环比减少29%，受中美贸易战不断升级。中国海关次对4月00日前 寓开美国随口，并于5月22号前到达中国港口并报关的再生铜原料进行关税豁免，但在此前，8月份进口贸易商早已停止从美国采购两生铜原料，3月份到港货物均是1、2月赛 ...