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黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251102
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 11:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable this week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of October 26, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 32 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 1770,000 cubic meters of logs will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 24, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. - As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 0.4%, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) decreased by 2.6%, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 10.5%. The US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate down 0.1% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% [6][51]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data**: As of October 26, 40 ships departed from New Zealand in October, 32 to mainland China and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. About 20 ships are expected to arrive in October and 20 in November. The estimated arrival volume in October is 1.77 million cubic meters [5][8]. - **Detailed Ship Information**: The report provides detailed information on 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, including departure time, load capacity, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [10]. Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment Volume**: As of the week of October 24, Lanshan Port's daily average shipment volume was 23,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 2,100 cubic meters), and Taicang Port's was 12,200 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 3,100 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 351,900 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 40,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port's was about 350,800 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 22,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 143,000 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0895 million cubic meters, a decrease of 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. Market Trends - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: As of October 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 5.0% from the previous week. The backwardation spread widened significantly this week [19]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: The spot prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The report also presents the regional spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications, as well as the spreads between different tree species and specifications [22][23]. Other - **Other Price Influencing Factors**: As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1983.00 points, a decrease of 8 points (- 0.4%) from the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 855 points, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, an increase of 10.5% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.118, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% to 1.747 [6][51].
黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251012
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 06:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9m 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures market shows a high - level correction this week [4][17] - The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with different trends in each port's inventory and daily shipment volume [6][11] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, Shandong's quote was 765 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged from last week), and Jiangsu's was 770 yuan/cubic meter (up 5 yuan/cubic meter). The 3.9m 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was priced at 850 yuan/cubic meter (unchanged), and the 5.9m 30+ radiata pine was 805 yuan/cubic meter (up 20 yuan/cubic meter). European spruce and fir in Jiangsu are in short supply [4] - As of October 5, there were 7 ships departing from New Zealand in October, 6 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 for unloading in Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is expected that 7 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in October [5] - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.72 million cubic meters (down 0.36 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.44 million cubic meters (up 0.18 million cubic meters week - on - week). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1558 million cubic meters (up 1.50 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port had about 0.4394 million cubic meters (down 3.75 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou had about 0.3050 million cubic meters (up 1.45 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.1235 million cubic meters (down 2.29 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0237 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][11] - As of the week of October 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1936 points, up 35 points (+1.8%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 873, up 0.6% from last week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1160.42 points, up 4.1% from last week. The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.129, up 0.13% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate rose 0.2% to 1.723 [6][56] 2. Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows 7 ships departing in October, with details of their departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the daily shipment volume and inventory of different ports showed different trends. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 3.09 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The data also shows the inventory and changes of different tree species in each port [11][12] 4. Market Trends - As of October 10, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 821 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.6% from last week. The market showed a high - level correction this week, and the monthly spread changes were small [17] 5. Price and Spread - Spot price data of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are provided, including 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc., along with their price changes compared to last week and four weeks ago [21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications are presented, such as 3.9m 30+ radiata pine, 3.9m 40+ radiata pine, etc. [23][28][32] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications are also shown, like the difference between 3.9m 30+ radiata pine and 3.9m 40+ radiata pine [40][42][44] 6. Other - Other price influencing factors include freight rates and exchange rates. The dry bulk BDI, Handysize BHSI, crude oil BDTI, and SCFI all had different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The US dollar to RMB and US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rates also changed [55][56]
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250914
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-14 07:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of mainstream delivery products of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of September 7, there were 10 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 6 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port decreased by 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 0.67 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of the week of September 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [6]. - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 1.1% compared to last week, and the monthly spread tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The prices of mainstream radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 745 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 765 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 850 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 785 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 7, 10 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 6 bound for mainland China and 4 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea. It is expected that 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - Provided the specific shipping schedule data of New Zealand logs, including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.68 million cubic meters (down 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.12 million cubic meters (down 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week) [6][12]. - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1279 million cubic meters (down 0.0224 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port's was about 0.4407 million cubic meters (up 0.0111 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou Port's was about 0.3726 million cubic meters (up 0.0216 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port's was about 0.1021 million cubic meters (down 0.017 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0433 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0067 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 798 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.1% decrease from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 at - 6 yuan/cubic meter [18]. Price and Spread - Provided the spot price data of logs and downstream construction timber, showing that most prices remained stable compared to last week [21][23]. - Presented the regional price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][26]. - Showed the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39]. Other - Analyzed other price - influencing factors, including freight rates and exchange rates. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [52][53].
国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250803
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 06:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 745 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week, with a regional price difference of -20 yuan. The 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 850 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week; the 5.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 765 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volumes and were still in short supply [4]. Supply - As of July 27, there were a total of 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. Among the ships departing in July, about 16 were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August. The expected arrival volume in July was 1.63 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 1.78 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 1.18 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2558 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.024 million cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 0.4363 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0785 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 0.4211 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0257 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.2068 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0962 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. Market Trend - As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. Other - As of the week ending August 1, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2018 points, down 239 points (-10.6%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 678 points, down 0.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was oscillating at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.200, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 2.0% to 1.69 [58][59].