证券研究报告 钢铁周报：起跳前的下蹲 行业评级：看好 2025 年 08 月 17 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 【浙商金属】钢铁周度数据（2025年8月17日） | | 格 价 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 697 | 1 7% . | 10 . | 3% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 202 | 2 4% . | 6 . | 8% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 457 | 2 0% - . | 16 . | 9% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 514 | 2 9% - . | 20 . | 5% | | | | SW特钢指数 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that signals of "anti-involution" will drive the industry out of its bottom phase [1] - The report highlights that the SW Steel Index has increased by 4.4% week-to-date and 10.2% year-to-date, indicating a positive trend in the steel sector [3] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.13 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2% week-to-date but a significant increase of 20.4% year-to-date [5] - The report notes that the iron ore port inventory stands at 13,769 million tons, with a week-to-date increase of 0.8% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.3% [5] Price Data Summary - The report provides various price data for steel products, including: - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) at 3,240 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 5.0% [3] - Hot-rolled coil at 3,310 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 3.2% [3] - Cold-rolled steel at 3,640 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date decrease of 11.4% [3] Supply and Demand - The weekly production of five major steel products is reported, with a notable increase in daily molten iron output [9] - The report indicates that the operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 companies is being monitored, reflecting the industry's production capacity utilization [12][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Seasonal demand is weakening, but production restrictions are expected to provide support [1] - The report highlights that the overall inventory of five major steel products is 9.3 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 22.7% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 23.6% [5] - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 6.9% [5] Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,119, with a weekly change of -0.2% and a year-to-date change of 0.8% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) price is 3,140 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date increase of 7.9% [3] - Hot-rolled coil price is 3,097 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 9.5% [3] - Cold-rolled steel price is 3,640 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.8% and a year-to-date increase of 11.4% [3] Supply and Demand - The average daily pig iron output is projected to be around 230,000 tons [9] - The report indicates that the steel mills' operating rate is fluctuating, impacting overall production [12] - The apparent demand for rebar is noted to be significant, with ongoing monitoring of market conditions [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1]. - It highlights the recent trends in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a potential for recovery [3][5]. Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,130 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.31 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5]. - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, with a weekly decline of 10.1% and a year-to-date increase of 23.7% [5]. - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.86 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but up 6.7% year-to-date [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily average pig iron production expected to maintain current levels [9][12]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing resilience [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]