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那些在3700点买基金的人,现在怎么样了?
天天基金网· 2025-08-19 11:23
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a slight decline after reaching the historical high of 3731 points in 2021, raising questions about investment opportunities and strategies for those who bought funds at that peak [1][4]. Market Performance - The three major indices in the A-share market closed lower today, with a trading volume close to 2.6 trillion yuan. Sectors such as liquor, real estate, and automobiles led the gains, while insurance and brokerage sectors saw a pullback [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that significant trading volume often leads to high volatility, and the current market remains active with no clear signs of capital withdrawal [3]. Fund Performance Since 2021 - Funds purchased at the 3731-point peak have shown varied performance, with some funds gaining over 200% since then. However, many investors are still waiting to break even [4][6]. - As of August 2025, the market has returned to around 3700 points, but many individual stocks have not recovered to their previous highs, indicating a disparity between index performance and individual stock performance [8]. Strategies for Investors - For investors whose funds have not yet returned to break-even, it is advised to maintain a rational approach and consider shifting from chasing hot stocks to a balanced allocation strategy. This includes dynamic adjustments to portfolios and setting stop-loss limits [9][12]. - Dollar-cost averaging through systematic investment plans can help reduce costs over time, especially during market downturns [9][10]. Market Outlook - The current market is characterized as a "healthy bull" market, supported by government policies and increasing capital inflows. This environment is expected to foster continued market confidence and potential upward movement [12][13]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a balanced approach, using a "core-satellite" strategy to manage risk and avoid overexposure to any single investment [16][18].
这个方向,券商研报说存在56%的上涨空间
雪球· 2025-06-24 07:29
Group 1 - The article discusses the gold-silver ratio, which reflects the relative price relationship between gold and silver, indicating whether silver is undervalued or overvalued. A higher ratio suggests silver is cheaper relative to gold, while a lower ratio indicates the opposite [3][7]. - Historical data shows that the gold-silver ratio reached a peak of 104 in April 2025, but has since declined to 94.14 as of June 20, 2025, with gold priced at $3384.4 per ounce and silver at $35.95 per ounce [3][8]. - The article notes that the gold-silver ratio typically fluctuates within a range, with 80-100 being a top and around 40 being a bottom. The current ratio of 94.14 is above the historical average of approximately 58, suggesting potential for silver price recovery [7][8]. Group 2 - The demand for silver is increasing due to its industrial applications, such as in photovoltaics and electronics, while supply growth is limited, creating a supply-demand gap that supports silver prices [9]. - The article highlights that silver is known for its high volatility, with a volatility rate 1.5 times that of gold [10]. - The recovery of the gold-silver ratio is influenced by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in Federal Reserve policies [11]. Group 3 - Some analysts express skepticism about the recovery of the gold-silver ratio, suggesting it may continue to rise due to the significant increase in silver production compared to gold since 1994, with silver production up by 79.9% and gold by only 43.5% [13]. - The article mentions that when the market shifts focus from gold to silver, it often indicates that prices have already reflected speculative themes, prompting investors to reassess reasonable pricing [13]. Group 4 - Currently, there is only one commodity fund investing in silver, the Guotai Silver LOF (161226), which tracks the performance of the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures [14]. - The fund has underperformed significantly since its inception, which is noted as a drawback for potential investors [14][19]. Group 5 - The article compares the performance of resource-related funds over the past five years, highlighting several funds that have performed relatively well, including Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource Mixed A and Jiashi Resource Selection Stock A [20][23]. - The performance of the Shanghai Natural Resources Index and the CSI Upstream Resource Industry Index is discussed, with both indices showing similar performance trends over the past decade [25][27]. Group 6 - The article provides valuation metrics for the Shanghai Resource Index and the CSI Upstream Resource Index, noting their respective P/E ratios of 11.74 and 12.09, as well as P/B ratios of 1.39 and 1.41 [32][33]. - The dividend yield for the Shanghai Resource Index is reported at 4.80%, indicating a relatively attractive yield compared to the CSI Upstream Index's 4.63% [34].