1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Iran situation and oil prices are currently the main factors driving commodity price fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - energy sectors such as the non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors and oil prices. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - narrative changes due to rising inflation and recession risks. The report suggests going long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran - US peace talks are at an impasse, and the situation in the Middle East has escalated. The main affected commodities are crude oil, LPG, and shipping. Rising oil prices have driven the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a longer time, oil prices and corresponding sectors may rise further. The disruption of natural gas supply in the Middle East may have a more profound impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1] Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged but may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is achieved. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate at 2%, but its policy stance has become tougher. The rise in oil prices, cost increases, and the increase in global interest - rate hike expectations have formed a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2] Domestic Policy and Economic Situation - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. China's economic data shows a mixed picture, with positive performance in exports, industrial added value, and consumer goods retail, but negative performance in real estate investment and sales [3] Commodity Sector Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity price fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors and oil prices. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves, but there may still be a supply gap. Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products. The EU has simplified some natural gas import rules, and Russia is considering an early gas cut - off to Europe. The oilseed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5] News - US House Speaker Johnson said the Iran war is "nearly over and the goal has been achieved", but the Trump administration is reported to be sending ground troops to the Middle East. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran has demonstrated control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Parliament is seeking a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia's President Putin signed a decree to restrict gold exports from May 1 [7]

Core Views - The report indicates that external disturbances have altered the rhythm of the A-share market rather than undermining the foundation of the bull market, suggesting a short-term volatility but a continuation of a medium-term slow bull trend into 2026 [3][13]. Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened lower but rebounded to close higher, with a general uptrend in individual stocks [5][6]. - The chemical sector showed strong performance, driven by a bullish trend in domestic chemical futures, while the energy sector experienced adjustments after recent gains [3][5][13]. - The total trading volume in the two markets shrank to 2.2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of confidence among investors regarding future market movements [3][13]. Economic Policy Insights - The government's work report maintains a steady approach, adjusting the GDP growth target for 2026 to 4.5%-5%, with a focus on developing new productive forces and promoting high-quality economic growth [4][13]. - Fiscal policy is described as "more proactive," while monetary policy remains "moderately loose," emphasizing flexibility and efficiency [4][13]. Sector Performance - The chemical sector has been particularly active, with significant gains in agricultural chemicals, chemical raw materials, and biopharmaceuticals, attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and prices [8][9]. - The agricultural sector has also seen a rise, driven by geopolitical risks impacting fertilizer supply and increasing biofuel demand due to rising oil prices [9]. - The electric grid equipment sector has shown continuous growth, supported by new energy system construction initiatives and the rising demand for stable power supply in AI computing [10]. - Oil and gas sectors experienced initial gains due to geopolitical tensions but faced corrections later in the week [11][13]. - The shipping and port sectors saw fluctuations, influenced by concerns over the security of key maritime routes [12]. Investment Strategy - Conservative investors are advised to remain cautious and wait for clearer trends before making decisions, while aggressive investors may consider positioning around key industry narratives such as energy and AI computing [4][14].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing significant adjustments, with precious metals and oil prices facing substantial declines. The focus is on the geopolitical situation regarding Iran and ongoing supply pressures in the oil market [2][8]. Group 1: Recent Developments in Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions have eased as the U.S. has expressed willingness to engage in talks with Iran regarding a nuclear agreement, leading to a decrease in short-term geopolitical premiums [2][8]. - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cut policy, with no increase in oil output planned for March. They may consider a phased restoration of production up to 1.65 million barrels per day based on market conditions [2][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The key short-term factor in the oil market remains the geopolitical developments concerning Iran, while long-term supply surplus pressures are expected to continue influencing oil prices [3][9]. - The recent drop in oil prices has approached the risk premium levels seen during the June conflict between Israel and Iran, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [3][9]. - For other chemical products, previous price increases were driven by rising oil costs due to geopolitical tensions and weather-related energy price spikes. However, with oil prices falling, cost support may weaken, and demand validation around the Chinese New Year should be monitored [11].