衍生品研究 新券定价——唯品会奥莱 REIT 宁波奥特莱斯登录资本市场 2025 年 8 月 22 日 衍生品研究/事件点评 发行 10.0 亿份，战配、网下、公众分别占比 70%、21%、9%，2025/8/13 网下询价，2025/8/20 缴款，预期 9 月下旬登录资本市场。网下有效认购倍数 254.19 倍，由此推算中签率 0.39%。 初始IRR 7.75%，今明两年可供分配金额预测分别 1.51亿元和 1.64亿元， 预测年化派息率分别 6.94%和 5.65%。发行价 3.48 元，上限发行，发行 P/NAV 1.20 倍，对应 23.05 倍 P/FFO，今明两年调整后预期年化派息率 5.79%、4.71%。 新券二级市场估值推导 目前已上市产权类消费基础设施 REITs 共 9 只，过去三个月平均 P/NAV 中位数 1.41 倍，P/FFO 中位数 25.02 倍，派息率 TTM 中位数 3.69%。 我们认为，最可比的是华夏首创奥特莱斯 REIT(508005.SH)，过去三个 月平均 P/NAV、P/FFO 和派息率 TTM 分别 1.58 倍、25.43 倍和 2.95%。 考虑到唯 ...

Core Insights - The first two public REITs focused on data centers were listed on August 8, both achieving a 30% limit-up on their debut, indicating strong market interest and performance [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The newly listed data center REITs, Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, recorded transaction amounts of 2.34 billion and 4.52 billion respectively, making them the top two in the public REITs market [2] - The public REITs market has shown impressive performance this year, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index and CSI REITs Index rising by 13.37% and 9.91% year-to-date as of August 8, significantly outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Index [1][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The successful listing of the first data center public REITs marks a diversification of underlying assets in the public REITs market, expanding beyond traditional sectors like housing and logistics to include new infrastructure like data centers [3] - The total market capitalization of public REITs reached 221.23 billion, maintaining stability above 220 billion, although there has been a slight correction of over 2% from the peak in late June [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Among the 73 public REITs listed, 70 have reported positive returns this year, with an average increase of 17.37%. Notably, the Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT has surged over 50% year-to-date [4][5] - The recent market adjustments may be linked to rising risk appetite in the capital market, with suggestions to focus on quality projects that may present buying opportunities after corrections [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in large transactions of REITs indicates increased institutional activity in the consumer REIT sector, despite low daily trading volumes in the secondary market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Large Transactions in REITs - On May 15, multiple REITs completed large transactions, including China International Capital Corporation's (CICC) consumer REIT with 2.35 million shares traded for approximately 10 million yuan, reflecting a slight discount to the closing price [3]. - Consumer REITs have frequently appeared in large transactions over the past month, with notable performers like Huaxia Huayun Commercial REIT and CICC Consumer REIT leading the way [3]. - The CSI REITs index has shown an average increase of 8.34% this year, with consumer funds like Huaxia BaiLian Consumer REIT rising by 47.66% [3]. Group 2: Liquidity Challenges - The frequent large transactions highlight liquidity issues in the secondary market for REITs, with CICC Consumer REIT showing significant activity in large trades but low daily trading volumes [5][6]. - The market for public REITs in China is still developing, with a concentrated investor structure leading to significant price impacts from individual institutional trades [6]. - The valuation system for public REITs in China is underdeveloped, which hinders the attraction of new capital and contributes to low overall valuation levels [7]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance capital is increasingly favoring REITs, with significant allocations to newly listed REITs like the Southern SF Logistics REIT, which received over 200 million yuan from 22 insurance accounts [8]. - The establishment of large-scale public REITs, such as the Beijing Pingzhun Infrastructure REIT with a target size of 10 billion yuan, indicates growing institutional interest [8][9]. - The expansion of the public REITs market is expected to enhance trading activity and attract a broader range of investors, improving market liquidity [9].

Group 1 - CICC Vipshop Outlets REIT has officially submitted its application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 6, targeting the consumer infrastructure sector [2][3] - The underlying assets of the project are expected to include outlet projects in Nanchang, Ningbo, and Taiyuan, owned by Shanshan Commercial Group [4] - Shanshan Commercial Group, established in 2016, is primarily engaged in business services and has a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - Vipshop acquired 100% of Shanshan Commercial Group for 2.9 billion yuan in 2019, which included several established outlet plazas and additional projects under planning [5] - The REIT is anticipated to provide funding support for asset revitalization and new project expansion, leveraging the synergy between supply chain and offline scenarios post-acquisition [6] - Consumer REITs have shown strong performance, with the highest year-to-date increase exceeding 40%, indicating a robust market for this asset class [2][8] Group 3 - As of May 7, there are 66 public REITs in the market with a fundraising scale nearing 200 billion yuan, and 19 additional REITs are in the application process [7] - The secondary market for public REITs has performed well, with an average increase of 13.4% year-to-date, outperforming major A-share indices [8] - Notably, consumer REITs have led the market, with several products achieving significant gains, including Huaxia Joy City Commercial REIT and Huaxia Shichuang Outlets REIT, both exceeding 40% [8]