Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - "Anti - involution" drives price adjustment expectations, and its realization requires a loose liquidity environment. Since multiple industries promoted "anti - involution", some commodity futures prices have risen, and the spot prices of coking coal and rebar have also increased. The PPI index needs downstream demand, especially fixed - asset investment demand for industrial products, and a relatively loose monetary liquidity environment to reverse the downward trend [2][11]. - The effectiveness of "anti - involution" is more compatible with a steepening yield curve. If price adjustment expectations are realized, overall inflation will stabilize, and future interest - rate cut expectations will decline. The degree of steepening depends on the repair of downstream demand, especially the real estate market [2][13]. - The initial trade agreement between the US and Japan may lead the US to seek a similar agreement with the EU, with a possible 15% tariff on most EU goods. The possibility of an agreement between the two sides has increased, and international trade friction risks have eased to some extent [2][13]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - "Anti - involution" has strengthened price adjustment expectations. As of July 25, coking coal and rebar futures have risen above last December's average. Spot prices of coking coal and rebar also increased in mid - July. The CITIC Futures PPI commodity index has reached last December's average, but reversing the PPI downward trend requires downstream demand and a loose liquidity environment [11]. - A large amount of high - frequency data is provided, including price changes in agricultural products, consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping, as well as their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [15][17]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, social retail sales, and export volume [20][30][32]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, PCE, and the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index, as well as the implied prospects of interest - rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [82][84][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented through charts, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month increases [94][98][103]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [142][144][146].

Strategy Overview - The report highlights the rapid escalation of the Middle East situation, emphasizing the need to focus on oil and precious metals as potential investment directions [6][28]. - It suggests that the A-share index may enter a period of volatility from late June to late July, with the market needing further momentum to move upward [6][28]. Market Performance - During the week of June 9-13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to close at 3,377 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60% to 10,122.11 points [10][19]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 13.09% compared to the previous week, reaching 13,392.35 billion yuan [10][19]. - The report notes that the prices of ICE light sweet crude oil rose by 14.20%, and COMEX gold increased by 3.17% during the same period [10][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" focusing on geopolitical conflict directions, precious metals, high-dividend stocks, and technology growth represented by AI [28][29]. - It suggests that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may lead to short-term performance in sectors such as oil, military, nuclear pollution prevention, and shipping [28]. - The report indicates that central banks have been increasing gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 7,383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) as of the end of May, marking a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) [28][29]. Sector Analysis - The report identifies that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture have shown strong performance amid rising geopolitical risks [19][20]. - It highlights that the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 index have a high price-to-earnings ratio of 136.44 times, indicating accumulated risks in this segment [6][28]. - The report also notes that the high-dividend sector remains attractive for investment, particularly in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [28].