需求不振，原木上行乏力 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 【综合分析】 价格：本周日照3.9米中A辐射松价格750元/方，周环比平，太仓4米中A原木价格770元/方，环比平；供应：本周新西兰原木预计到 港量40.2万方，周环比+23.2%；针叶原木总库存294万方，周环比-1.01%；需求：本期13港原木日均出库量6.12万方，周环比-1.29%。 进口成本：本月辐射松CFR主力价114美金/JAS立方米，月环比-2%。 短期方面：成本端外盘价下行与人民币升值提供支撑，但需求端房建资金紧张、出库量疲软抑制反弹空 ...

2 0 2 5 . 9 . 3 原木周报 中泰期货股份有限公司 高萍 交易咨询证号：Z0012806 目录 CONTENTS 1 原木综述 2 原木平衡表解析 3 原木供需解析 4 原木成本利润 5 原木价格与价差 Part 1 原木综述 1.1 原木综述——供给端 | | | 项目 | 单位 | 2025年7月 | 2025年6月 | 环比 | 累计 | 预估下周/月 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/8/29 | 2025/8/22 | | 同比 | 根据三方数据线性预估 | | | | 国外 | 到船量 | 条 | 15 | 8 | 7 | —— | 6条 | | | | | 到港量 | 万方 | 54.1 | 28.4 | 25.70 | | 20万方 | | | | | 针叶原木进口量 | | 195.33 | 217.68 | -22.35 | -7% | | 短期来看，下周到港回升，供应端暂时未有起色 | | 供给 | | 辐射松进口量 | | 139.72 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of the log market are in a weak and volatile state. The supply side has certain support, but the increase in arrivals in August may not be significant. The demand is currently weak but has limited downward space, and is expected to improve gradually as the peak season approaches. The inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The prices of logs and wood products are relatively stable, and the import profit is declining. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [6][9][11][15][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply Side**: The number of arriving ships remained the same at 8 from August 15th to 22nd, 2025, and the arrival volume increased by 3.30 million cubic meters to 28.4 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs decreased by 22.35 million cubic meters, and the import volume of radiata pine decreased by 20.96 million cubic meters. Although the arrivals are expected to increase next week, the arrival volume in August may not rise significantly due to factors such as less departure from New Zealand and rising outer - market quotes [6][7]. - **Demand and Inventory Side**: The weekly shipment volume increased slightly, with a national increase of 0.8 million cubic meters. The apparent demand decreased by 1.7 million cubic meters. The inventory in some regions and tree species showed a trend of destocking. Although the current demand is weak, it is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust [8][9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the spot prices are relatively stable. The spread between spot prices is stable, and the basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine. The futures prices are in a volatile state [10][11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The profit of finished products is in a stable and weak state [14][15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market is stable, and the supply side is under some pressure. The fundamentals are in a volatile state. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [16][17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6th, 2025, to August 22nd, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily average shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and tree species, and supply - demand differences [18][19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: It includes aspects such as New Zealand's log shipment volume, log imports, and imports by tree species, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [22][25][26]. - **Demand Side**: It involves the daily average shipment volume of logs and the real - estate market, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [34][35][37]. - **Downstream Analysis**: It includes the price and profit analysis of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes such as aluminum alloys, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [42][43][49]. - **Inventory Side**: It includes the inventory summary, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [58][59][61]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased [72][73][77]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [78]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - Market Quotes**: The outer - market quotes of radiata pine are expected to rise, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in August is in the range of 114 - 118 US dollars per cubic meter, an increase of 1 - 2 US dollars compared to July [82][83][11]. - **Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices**: The report provides the price seasonality charts of radiata pine and spruce from 2024 to 2025, but specific analysis is not fully presented in the provided content [86][87][88]. - **Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [89][94]. - **Basis between Radiata Pine and LG**: Specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [95]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: The report provides the seasonal chart of the LG main contract from 2024 to 2025, but specific analysis is not fully presented in the provided content [97][98][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the arrival at the port is expected to increase next week, and the supply side has certain support. However, affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the rising foreign quotation, the import volume of Chinese ports in August is expected to be relatively low [6][7]. - The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but the decline space is limited. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually [8][9]. - The total arrival at the port is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. If the arrival at the port remains weak, the inventory is expected to decline steadily [9]. - The foreign quotation is expected to rise, and the spot price is relatively stable as the peak season approaches. The subsequent rise in the foreign quotation may support the domestic spot to some extent. The fundamentals of the futures market are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment [11]. - The foreign quotation has rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the profits of logs and timber are expected to show a weak trend [15]. - For the industrial chain, the spot price is stable. It is reported that the arrival at the port is expected to increase slightly this week. As the peak season approaches, the outbound may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. For the futures market, the fundamentals are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to observe and conduct appropriate hedging at high prices according to the actual spot situation [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1 Log Overview Supply - side - The number of arriving ships on August 15, 2025, was 8, a decrease of 7 compared with August 8, with an expected increase to 9 next week. The arrival volume was 25.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 22 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The import volume of coniferous logs was 217.68 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1.39 million cubic meters month - on - month and 7% year - on - year. The import volume of radiata pine was 160.68 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.32 million cubic meters month - on - month and 6% year - on - year [7]. - From the seasonal perspective of New Zealand's shipments, June and July are the off - seasons. In July, New Zealand shipped 46 ships with a volume of 175.5 million cubic meters, remaining at a low level for two consecutive months. Affected by the low departure from New Zealand and the rising foreign quotation, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed to some extent [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly outbound volume of the whole country was 44.31 million cubic meters on August 15, a decrease of 0.6 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The apparent demand was 30.10 million cubic meters, a decrease of 28.3 million cubic meters compared with August 8. The inventory was 353.75 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5 million cubic meters compared with August 8 [9]. - The off - season continues, and the port outbound is still weak. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand is weak but the decline space is limited. As the peak season approaches, the outbound is expected to improve gradually. The total arrival at the port is still low, but there are signs of demand recovery. If the arrival at the port remains weak, the inventory is expected to decline steadily [9]. Price and Spread - The foreign quotation of radiata pine is expected to rise, and the spot price is stable. The fundamentals of the futures market are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. The wood square price is stable, and the downside space is limited due to the support of raw material costs [11]. - The spot spread is relatively stable. Affected by the spot spread, the current basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 780 - 790 yuan per cubic meter on the futures market [13]. Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine is 998 yuan per cubic meter on August 15, an increase of 7 yuan compared with August 8. The import cost of spruce is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 11 yuan compared with August 8. The import profit of radiata pine is - 61 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 7 yuan compared with August 8. The import profit of spruce is - 120 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 11 yuan compared with August 8 [15]. - The foreign quotation has rebounded, the import profit has declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still in a weak and volatile state. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminal, the profits of logs and timber are expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot price is stable. It is reported that the arrival at the port is expected to increase slightly this week. As the peak season approaches, the outbound may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly [17]. - For the futures market, the fundamentals are volatile, and the futures price is affected by capital and commodity sentiment. In the short term, it is recommended to observe and conduct appropriate hedging at high prices according to the actual spot situation [17]. Part 2 Log Balance Sheet - The report provides the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to August 15, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily average outbound volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, total inventory, and supply - demand differences [20]. Part 3 Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - No specific content about New Zealand log shipments, log imports, and imports by species is described, only the headings are provided [26][28][31]. Demand - side - No specific content about the daily average outbound volume of logs, real - estate, and downstream substitutes is described, only the headings are provided [35][37][55]. Inventory - side - No specific content about inventory summary, inventory by species, and inventory by region is described, only the headings are provided [59][61][67]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - No specific content about log import cost and profit, and log delivery profit is described, only the headings are provided [73][78]. Part 5 Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Foreign Quotation - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [85]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices - The report shows the seasonal price trends of 3.9m pulp, 3.9m small A, 3.9m medium A, 3.9m large A, 5.9m medium A radiata pine, and 11.8m spruce from 2024 to 2025 [88][89]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [91]. Radiata Pine and LG Basis - No specific content is described, only the heading is provided [97]. LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - The report shows the seasonal price trend of the LG main contract from 2024 to 2025 [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the arrival of logs at ports will increase next week, and the supply side may face some pressure. The spot price is stable, and the spot quotation has been raised. The fundamentals of outbound shipments are okay, and the futures price rises to catch up with the basis. There is still a small hedging space in the futures market, but market sentiment remains, and future market competition is crucial. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview 1.1 Supply - side - The number of arriving ships decreased from 14 in July 25th, 2025 to 6 in August 1st, 2025, a decrease of 8. The arrival volume at ports dropped from 48.1 million cubic meters to 22.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 26.00 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs, radiata pine, and other types showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous month, with year - on - year decreases of 7%, 6%, etc. It is estimated that the arrival volume at ports will recover to 14 ships and 42.5 million cubic meters next week. The supply side has certain support, but due to less departure from New Zealand and rising foreign quotes, the import willingness of domestic traders is suppressed, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be relatively low [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - The weekly shipment volume is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the national volume from 44.9 million cubic meters to 44.94 million cubic meters. The demand is still weak during the off - season, affected by weather and the decline in the real estate start - up rate. The apparent demand decreased by 41.0 million cubic meters. In terms of inventory, short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but due to weak downstream demand, the reduction amplitude is limited. With the recovery of arrivals next week, inventory is expected to increase under stable demand [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce remain stable, but it is reported that the foreign quotes of New Zealand radiata pine in August are 1 - 2 US dollars higher than in July. The spot price is relatively stable with a slight decline during the off - season, and the future increase in foreign quotes may support the domestic spot price. The futures price has decreased, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak. There is still a small hedging space in the futures market. The spot spread is relatively stable, and the basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine [11][13]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine increased by 13 from 973 to 986, while that of spruce decreased by 9 from 1248 to 1238. The import profit of radiata pine decreased by 13 from - 48 to - 61, and the profit situation of wood products is relatively stable. Due to the recovery of foreign quotes and weak downstream and terminal demand, the profit of logs and wood products is expected to be weak [15]. 1.5 Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot is stable, and the expected increase in arrivals this week may put pressure on the supply side. For the futures market, the spot quotation is raised, the fundamentals of outbound shipments are okay, and the futures price rises to catch up with the basis. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider appropriate hedging at high prices according to one's own spot situation [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet No specific content provided for analysis. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply - side - It includes aspects such as New Zealand log shipment volume, log imports, and imports by tree species, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.2 Demand - side - It involves the daily shipment volume of logs and the real estate situation, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.3 Log Downstream Analysis - For wood products, it includes price and profit analysis, and for downstream substitutes, it involves aluminum alloy analysis, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 3.4 Inventory - side - It includes inventory summaries, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. Part 4: Cost and Profit 4.1 Log Import Cost and Profit - The import cost and profit of logs are affected by factors such as foreign quotes and exchange rates, but no detailed data analysis content is provided. 4.2 Log Delivery Profit - The delivery profit from Taicang to Chongqing in 2024 and 2025 is presented in a graph, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [80]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Log Foreign Quotes - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and their price seasonality is also mentioned, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [83][86]. 5.2 Radiata Pine and Spruce Spread Seasonality - The spread seasonality between radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [88]. 5.3 Radiata Pine and LG Basis - The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [94]. 5.4 LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread - The seasonal chart and inter - month spread of the LG main contract are analyzed, but no detailed data analysis content is provided [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The demand side has seen some improvement, and the fundamentals are basically stable. The futures market shows no obvious contradictions and is generally in a volatile market. However, as the delivery date approaches and the first round of warehouse receipt registration is due, attention should be paid to the influence of emotional capital. In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile under the current real - world contradictions. It is crucial to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory levels. [17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply - side - Foreign supply: In the week of March 28, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 17, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 33.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.52 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 181.71 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.71 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, but a 7% year - on - year decrease. The import volume of radiata pine was 126.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 17.00 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, with a 1% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the arrival volume in China will remain stable with a slight increase in March and April [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The weekly shipment volume nationwide was 46.90 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The downstream apparent demand has recovered to a certain extent. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the demand remains stable in the short term. - Inventory: The inventory of radiata pine was 332.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week; the inventory of spruce was 25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.8 million cubic meters. Overall, the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend due to the increase in arrivals and relatively weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - Price: The FOB price of radiata pine decreased by 5 US dollars per cubic meter to 116 US dollars per cubic meter; the FOB price of spruce remained unchanged at 121 euros per cubic meter. The spot price of logs has started to decline weakly under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price of wood planks remained stable this week. - Spread: The spot spread is relatively stable. As of last Friday, the futures market was at a premium of 39 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (spot measurement) and at a discount of about 35 - 45 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (national standard measurement) [11][13]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The import cost of radiata pine was 1050 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import cost of spruce was 1123 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter. - Profit: The import profit of radiata pine was - 63 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 22 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import profit of spruce was - 93 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 9 yuan per cubic meter. Overall, the profit of logs and wood planks is expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a log balance sheet from August 23, 2024, to March 28, 2025, including data on arrivals, shipments, inventory, and supply - demand differences [19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - New Zealand log shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Log import: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Import by tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. Demand - side - Log daily shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Real estate: No specific data presented in the provided content. Downstream Analysis - Wood plank analysis - Price: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Wood plank analysis - Profit: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Downstream substitutes - Aluminum alloy analysis: No specific data presented in the provided content. Inventory - side - Inventory - Summary: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By region: No specific data presented in the provided content. Part 4: Cost and Profit The import cost and profit of logs are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log FOB Price The FOB prices of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and relevant price trends from 2024 to 2025 are presented [83][84][85][86][87][88]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of LG Main Contracts The seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of LG main contracts are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content.