Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures markets, including core views, industry dynamics, spot prices, and related charts [6]. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,200 yuan/ton, closing at 16,180 yuan/ton, up 1.44%. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price has broken out of the triangular range and maintained a slightly strong pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a high of 2,323 yuan/ton and a low of 2,241 yuan/ton, closing at 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The 5 - 9 month spread premium narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. With the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures maintained a strong pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and closing significantly lower. The price reached a high of 437.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 411.0 yuan/barrel, closing at 416.3 yuan/barrel, down 2.57%. Although the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela escalated, the event was quickly digested by the market. Currently, the oil market is still dominated by the expectation of supply - demand surplus, and both domestic and international oil prices remained weak [6]. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a 3.80% increase, and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [8]. - In the week of December 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may continue to decline next week [8]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November, a 6% month - on - month decrease but a 46% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%, and a significant increase of 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The weekly methanol production reached 2.0722 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons [10]. - The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE showed different trends. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plant average operating load was 81.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 3. The US daily crude oil production was 13.827 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 422.9 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.934 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 549,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 248,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [12]. - As of December 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 64,898 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 10,002 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts [12]. Spot Price Table | 品种 | 现货价格 | 较前一日涨跌 | 期货主力合约 | 较前一日涨跌 | 基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 15,750 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +130 yuan/ton | - 430 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | 甲醇 | 2,305 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2,267 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | | 原油 | 402.2 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | 416.3 yuan/barrel | - 11.9 yuan/barrel | - 14.1 yuan/barrel | +11.9 yuan/barrel | [13] Related Charts - The report includes charts of rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, futures inventory, and tire开工率), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, port and inland inventory, and production cost), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, commercial inventory, refinery operating rate, and net position changes) [14][27][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, with expectations of weak and volatile crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries with additional voluntary production cuts reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, along with an increase in refined oil inventories, and the overall oil product inventories continue to rise [1]. - U.S. crude oil production has continued to decline slightly but remains near the historical high. After the U.S. - Ukraine talks, Trump said that significant progress has been made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with discussions covering nearly 95% of key issues [1]. - European refined oil crack spreads have stabilized after a continuous decline from the high level. The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until July 31, 2026. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to concerns about export disruptions in Venezuela [1]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and exports in the Middle East have risen [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2602 contract, rose 0.11% to 436.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 439.7 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 1796 to 30384 lots [2]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the morning of December 30, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending December 19, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.432 million barrels, and were 3.43% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.862 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.118 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, less than the expected increase of 440,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels [1][3]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - U.S. crude oil production for the week ending December 19 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.825 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [1][4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.539 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. Among them, weekly gasoline demand decreased by 1.50% to 8.942 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.701 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%. Weekly diesel demand increased by 9.77% to 4.156 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.883 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.44%. The single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 1.28% month - on - month, mainly driven by a significant decline in gasoline and propane [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 15,730 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.91% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 55 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke through the triangular range and formed an upward - breaking pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating and stabilizing. The price reached a high of 2,178 yuan/ton and a low of 2,150 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.00% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 33 yuan/ton. Against the background of differences between bulls and bears, the methanol futures started an oscillating consolidation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 444.5 yuan/barrel and a low of 440.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 0.02% increase. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted crude oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium supports the oil price, and the crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons with a 2.72% increase, and the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons with a 3.38% increase. In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November 2025, a 6% decrease from October and a 46% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a 26% increase year - on - year [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.31%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a 2.95% increase compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all had slight increases. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.0201 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 391,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 406, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory decreased slightly by 742,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased slightly by 249,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 94.8%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the November average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week and compared with the November average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,730 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,162 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 442.7 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 34.2 yuan/barrel | +1.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [15][16][17]. - **Methanol**: Charts cover methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, etc [28][30][36]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc [41][42][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,205 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.13% lower. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,175 yuan/ton and a low of 2,131 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.23% lower at 2,155 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 39 yuan/ton. Driven by the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday of this week, the 2602 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and rebounding significantly. The price reached a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 2.46% higher at 437.9 yuan/barrel. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium has driven the oil price to rebound, and the crude oil futures may stabilize temporarily in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%, and the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate, but the overall shipment was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase of the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and stably this week [9]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 58,433 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. As of December 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 40,988 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Change in Basis (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 | - 200 | 15,205 | +15 | - 355 | - 15 | | Methanol | 2,155 | +5 | 2,155 | +7 | 0 | - 7 | | Crude Oil | 395.2 | +0.1 | 437.9 | +11.3 | - 42.7 | - 11.2 | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved down to around 15,190 yuan/ton, closing 1.40% lower at 15,190 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 35 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,176 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,144 yuan/ton, closing 1.10% lower at 2,148 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Due to the still large supply pressure of domestic methanol, the continued rise of methanol futures was blocked, and it started a volatile consolidation trend [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 430.3 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 424.8 yuan/barrel, closing 0.40% lower at 426.6 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, but the hidden danger of oversupply still exists. In the short term, crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving the capacity utilization rate. However, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and steadily this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 68 [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the average of 60,175 contracts in October. On the other hand, as of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the average of 155,188 contracts in November [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 15,190 yuan/ton | - 130 yuan/ton | - 290 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,145 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,148 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 389.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | 426.6 yuan/barrel | - 2.8 yuan/barrel | - 37.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][21][23][26]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report offers charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][47][49][51][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising. The intraday price center slightly shifted up to around 15,320 yuan/ton and closed with a slight increase of 0.29% at 15,320 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 15 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,187 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,152 yuan/ton, closing with a small increase of 1.40% at 2,174 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 42 yuan/ton. Driven by a slight rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a maximum of 432.5 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 425.1 yuan/barrel, closing with a small increase of 1.20% at 429.4 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, and short - term crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. Bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry declined. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, China's heavy - truck market had cumulative sales of more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil output was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the October average of 60,175 contracts. As of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,320 yuan/ton | - 70 yuan/ton | - 270 yuan/ton | +70 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,150 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | 2,174 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | - 24 yuan/ton | - 18 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 392.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 429.4 yuan/barrel | +2.7 yuan/barrel | - 37.2 yuan/barrel | - 2.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][40][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 15,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.20% to 15,200 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 25 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating stably, and slightly rebounding. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,138 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,084 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly increased by 1.14% to 2,124 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 50 yuan/ton. Driven by a slight rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 438.5 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 435.0 yuan/barrel, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.27% to 437.3 yuan/barrel. The expectation of oversupply once again dominated the market. Saudi Arabia lowered its selling prices in Asia, and a bearish atmosphere prevailed, causing crude oil futures to operate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,200 tons or 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, with a growth rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses for natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 0.79 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.60 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.02 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises recovered this week, but the overall sales pressure remained, and the increase in capacity utilization rate was limited. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will still have an upward trend in the next cycle, but the increase will be restricted [10]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In November, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [11]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.01%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a small increase of 3.53% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a significant increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons in the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.24%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 5.31%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.95%, a week - on - week increase of 6.42%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.76%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% [12]. - As of December 5, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a significant increase of 165,700 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a slight decrease of 13,900 tons compared with 375,400 tons in the same period last year [13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 413, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a decrease of 69 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.853 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 222,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [13]. - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 425.7 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.812 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 3.741 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 21.604 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 308,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 248,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.5%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [14]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 69,176 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the average in October. As of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 113,859 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the average in November [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan/unit) | Change from Previous Day (yuan/unit) | Futures Main Contract Price (yuan/unit) | Change from Previous Day (yuan/unit) | Basis (yuan/unit) | Change (yuan/unit) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 | + 100 | 15,200 | - 30 | - 250 | + 30 | | Methanol | 2,107 | + 0 | 2,124 | + 25 | - 17 | - 25 | | Crude Oil | 405.8 | + 0.1 | 437.3 | - 0.3 | - 31.2 | + 0.4 | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][24][26][28]. - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][39]. - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [41][43][45][47][49][51].