Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating downward, and closing slightly lower. The price center of the contract during the session moved down slightly to below 15,620 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 0.89% lower at 15,620 yuan/ton. The premium spread between the May and September contracts widened to 45 yuan/ton. As the previous positive factors were gradually digested, the rubber futures showed a profit-taking trend, and it is expected that the market will maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 on Tuesday showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,219 yuan/ton and a low of 2,183 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed 1.21% lower at 2,206 yuan/ton. The discount spread between the May and September contracts narrowed to 19 yuan/ton. In the stage of multi - empty divergence, the methanol futures may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 on Tuesday showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 440.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 436.3 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price closed 1.27% lower at 437.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cooled down, the crude oil market gave back the premium, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals dominated. The short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons with a growth rate of 6.42%, and the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises in the Chinese semi - steel tire industry was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises in the Chinese full - steel tire industry was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales of heavy - duty trucks in China reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 86.80%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.42%, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.49%, and a significant increase of 6.06% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0354 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 4,400 tons, and a significant increase of 113,500 tons compared with 1.9219 million tons in the same period last year. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.30%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 81.89%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.12%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average operating load of coal - (methanol) to olefin plants in China was 81.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.17%. As of January 16, 2026, the futures market profit of methanol to olefins in China was - 236 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 69 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 105 yuan/ton. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0445 million tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 114,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 26,100 tons, and a significant increase of 281,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 450,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,200 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 98,100 tons, and a significant increase of 142,600 tons compared with 308,300 tons in the same period last year [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 2.72 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, remaining at a historical high. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) in the United States reached 422.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant increase of 9.767 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 23.585 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 745,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 214,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 95.3%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.6 percentage points. As of January 13, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 58,128 contracts, a week - on - week slight increase of 776 contracts and a slight decrease of 643 contracts or 1.09% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 13, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 193,366 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 72,680 contracts and a significant increase of 87,907 contracts or 83.36% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [11][12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,600 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 15,620 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,225 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | 2,206 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 19 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 414.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 437.0 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 23.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 15,730 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.91% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 55 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke through the triangular range and formed an upward - breaking pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating and stabilizing. The price reached a high of 2,178 yuan/ton and a low of 2,150 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.00% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 33 yuan/ton. Against the background of differences between bulls and bears, the methanol futures started an oscillating consolidation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 444.5 yuan/barrel and a low of 440.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 0.02% increase. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted crude oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium supports the oil price, and the crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons with a 2.72% increase, and the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons with a 3.38% increase. In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November 2025, a 6% decrease from October and a 46% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a 26% increase year - on - year [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.31%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a 2.95% increase compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all had slight increases. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.0201 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 391,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 406, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory decreased slightly by 742,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased slightly by 249,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 94.8%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the November average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week and compared with the November average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,730 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,162 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 442.7 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 34.2 yuan/barrel | +1.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [15][16][17]. - **Methanol**: Charts cover methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, etc [28][30][36]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc [41][42][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,205 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.13% lower. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,175 yuan/ton and a low of 2,131 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.23% lower at 2,155 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 39 yuan/ton. Driven by the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday of this week, the 2602 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and rebounding significantly. The price reached a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 2.46% higher at 437.9 yuan/barrel. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium has driven the oil price to rebound, and the crude oil futures may stabilize temporarily in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%, and the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate, but the overall shipment was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase of the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and stably this week [9]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 58,433 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. As of December 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 40,988 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Change in Basis (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 | - 200 | 15,205 | +15 | - 355 | - 15 | | Methanol | 2,155 | +5 | 2,155 | +7 | 0 | - 7 | | Crude Oil | 395.2 | +0.1 | 437.9 | +11.3 | - 42.7 | - 11.2 | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising. The intraday price center slightly shifted up to around 15,320 yuan/ton and closed with a slight increase of 0.29% at 15,320 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 15 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,187 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,152 yuan/ton, closing with a small increase of 1.40% at 2,174 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 42 yuan/ton. Driven by a slight rebound in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a maximum of 432.5 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 425.1 yuan/barrel, closing with a small increase of 1.20% at 429.4 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, and short - term crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. Bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run steadily and weakly this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry declined. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, China's heavy - truck market had cumulative sales of more than 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil output was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the October average of 60,175 contracts. As of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,320 yuan/ton | - 70 yuan/ton | - 270 yuan/ton | +70 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,150 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | 2,174 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | - 24 yuan/ton | - 18 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 392.2 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 429.4 yuan/barrel | +2.7 yuan/barrel | - 37.2 yuan/barrel | - 2.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][40][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Monday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center shifted slightly down to around 15,250 yuan/ton, closing down 1.07% at 15,250 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating steadily, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 2,142 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,103 yuan/ton, closing up 0.47% at 2,136 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 96 yuan/ton. As the methanol supply - demand outlook improves, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating steadily, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a maximum of 458.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 449.5 yuan/barrel, closing up 1.06% at 455.7 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, and combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. Some sample enterprises of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires had maintenance during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The main reasons for maintenance were insufficient overall orders and slow shipment, and some sample enterprises had equipment transformation, affecting the overall production capacity release. It is expected that in the next cycle, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will show a restorative increase. However, the overall demand growth space is limited, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization rate [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market continued to develop well, and the monthly production and sales reached a record high for the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April this year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles. It is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and it may even reach 1.1 million [10]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a slight increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 7 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels; the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month recovery of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 60,991 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13,318 contracts and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September of 97,848 contracts. On the other hand, as of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 125,587 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 52,240 contracts and a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October of 119,411 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | - 160 yuan/ton | 15,250 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | + 160 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,125 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 2,136 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 419.3 yuan/barrel | + 1.8 yuan/barrel | 455.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 36.5 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - **Rubber**: Rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19][23][25][27] - **Methanol**: Methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31][33][35][37] - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, Brent crude oil net position holding change [41][43][45][47][49][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the futures market conditions of rubber, methanol, and crude oil on July 23, 2025, including market trends, industrial dynamics, and spot prices [4][6][7]. Core Views - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Supported by positive factors, it is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Due to the divergence between long and short positions, it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The 2508 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of production - increase negatives and the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable pattern [7]. Industrial Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous period. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 1.39%, and that in general trade decreased by 0.13%. The entry and exit rates of warehouses decreased [9]. - As of July 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [9][10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and coal (methanol) to olefins had different changes. The futures profit of methanol to olefins was - 53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 567,600 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 67,900 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,500 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The US daily crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels [14]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, the Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased slightly. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9% [14]. - As of July 15, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,005 yuan/ton | -55 yuan/ton | -35 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,467 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | 2,411 yuan/ton | -46 yuan/ton | 56 yuan/ton | +46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.5 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 503.7 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | -24.2 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | [17]