Report Overview - The report focuses on the futures market conditions of rubber, methanol, and crude oil on July 23, 2025, including market trends, industrial dynamics, and spot prices [4][6][7]. Core Views - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Supported by positive factors, it is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Due to the divergence between long and short positions, it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The 2508 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of production - increase negatives and the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable pattern [7]. Industrial Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous period. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 1.39%, and that in general trade decreased by 0.13%. The entry and exit rates of warehouses decreased [9]. - As of July 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [9][10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and coal (methanol) to olefins had different changes. The futures profit of methanol to olefins was - 53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 567,600 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 67,900 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,500 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The US daily crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels [14]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, the Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased slightly. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9% [14]. - As of July 15, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,005 yuan/ton | -55 yuan/ton | -35 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,467 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | 2,411 yuan/ton | -46 yuan/ton | 56 yuan/ton | +46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.5 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 503.7 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | -24.2 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | [17]