投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 25 日 橡胶甲醇原油 多空分歧出现 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 小幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 15730 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收涨 1.91%至 15730 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度升阔至 55 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价摆脱三角形区间震荡， 形成向上突破形态。 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 22 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏多因素支撑 能化偏强运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15205 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.13%至 15205 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度升阔至 20 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现放量减 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏多氛围提振 能化偏强运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15320 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.29%至 15320 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度升阔至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 1 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏多氛围主导 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 15250 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 1.07%至 15250 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛至 10 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量减仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the futures market conditions of rubber, methanol, and crude oil on July 23, 2025, including market trends, industrial dynamics, and spot prices [4][6][7]. Core Views - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Supported by positive factors, it is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Due to the divergence between long and short positions, it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The 2508 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of production - increase negatives and the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable pattern [7]. Industrial Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous period. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 1.39%, and that in general trade decreased by 0.13%. The entry and exit rates of warehouses decreased [9]. - As of July 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [9][10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and coal (methanol) to olefins had different changes. The futures profit of methanol to olefins was - 53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 567,600 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 67,900 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,500 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The US daily crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels [14]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, the Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased slightly. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9% [14]. - As of July 15, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,005 yuan/ton | -55 yuan/ton | -35 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,467 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | 2,411 yuan/ton | -46 yuan/ton | 56 yuan/ton | +46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.5 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 503.7 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | -24.2 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | [17]