航运板块研发报告 集运专题报告 2026 年 1 月 12 日 中国出口退税政策调整对集运的影响点评 第一部分 前言概要 【事件背景】 2026 年 1 月 8 日，财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退 税政策的公告，公告指出： 一、自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。具 体产品清单见附件 1。 二、自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品 的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产 品增值税出口退税。具体产品清单见附件 2。 三、对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整， 继续适用消费税退（免）税政策。 【影响点评】 口日期界定。 从实施范围看，退税政策调整涉及的清单显示，受影响的产品除了光伏 和电池相关产品外，还包括化学原料及制品（基础化工原料、有机磷类化合 物等）、塑料 PVC 及聚合物类、厨房用具、陶瓷用品、有机硅、水泥、玻璃 制品等相关产品。 【策略推荐】 从实施时间看：1）对于电池产品，政策设置了两个增值税退税率调降 节点，自 2026 年尾 4 月 1 日开始，出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - Increasing number of Chinese cross-border sellers are receiving warning letters from the U.S. demanding immediate product label corrections or facing hefty fines, driven by California's Proposition 65, known as one of the strictest consumer safety regulations globally [1] Group 1: Proposition 65 Overview - Proposition 65, officially known as the "1986 Safe Drinking Water and Toxic Enforcement Act," was passed by California voters to protect residents and drinking water from known carcinogenic and reproductive toxic substances [3] - Unlike standard certifications, Proposition 65 does not have a unified "certificate of compliance," and products sold in California must comply even if they meet federal standards [4] Group 2: Scope and Requirements - Proposition 65 applies broadly to nearly all consumer products, focusing on materials that may pose health risks, particularly those known or suspected to cause cancer or reproductive harm [5] - Products containing over 1,000 officially recognized harmful substances must provide clear warnings if exposure exceeds safe levels, typically indicated by a "WARNING" label [6] Group 3: Commonly Tested Substances - Common testing categories include heavy metals (e.g., lead, cadmium, mercury, arsenic) and organic compounds (e.g., formaldehyde, phthalates, BPA), with specific limits set for each substance [5][7] - For example, formaldehyde limits are usually set at 75 ppm, while lead limits can vary, with some products having a threshold of 100 ppm [5][6] Group 4: Testing and Certification Process - The process for obtaining Proposition 65 testing certification involves several steps, including application and assessment, sample submission and payment, and laboratory testing [8][9] - Testing typically takes 5-7 business days, and a report is issued indicating whether the product meets the required limits for harmful substances [10]

Core Insights - JD.com reported significant consumer activity during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, particularly in Henan province, which ranked fourth nationally in user numbers and second in order growth rate, indicating a robust consumer base and strong purchasing momentum [1][2] - The purchasing power within Henan is diverse, with Zhengzhou being the strongest city on the JD platform, while Puyang showed the highest growth rate in purchasing power, reflecting a varied consumption landscape [1] - The fastest-growing product category in Henan was action cameras, with a remarkable growth rate of 498%, followed by air conditioning sets, digital cameras, and down jackets, all exceeding 100% growth [1] - High-value consumer electronics such as air conditioners, mobile phones, and refrigerators had an average spending of over 4,800 yuan per person, indicating a trend towards smart, quality, and health-oriented products [1] - Different generational preferences were noted, with Gen Z favoring digital peripherals, while millennials and Gen X focused on maternal and infant products, and the elderly preferred health care appliances and kitchen tools, highlighting the structural shifts in family consumption in Henan [1] Industry Trends - The consumer trend in Henan is shifting from price-driven purchases to value-oriented decisions, characterized by rapid growth, improved structure, and clear preferences [2] - The ongoing optimization of the consumption environment and enhancement of supply quality are expected to further unleash Henan's consumption potential, positioning it as a key driver of regional economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huadi Co., Ltd. is a well-known kitchen and bathroom appliance company in China, recognized for its high quality, innovative technology, and comprehensive after-sales service, with a strong market competitiveness and cost-effectiveness [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Huadi's revenue reached 4.158 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry, while the industry leader, Boss Electric, reported 7.312 billion yuan [2] - The main business revenue breakdown shows that range hoods generated 1.169 billion yuan (41.76% of total revenue) and stoves generated 734 million yuan (26.21% of total revenue) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 355 million yuan, also ranking second in the industry, with Boss Electric leading at 1.145 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Huadi's debt-to-asset ratio was 43.81%, down from 46.49% year-on-year, which is higher than the industry average of 29.86% [3] - The gross profit margin for the same period was 43.29%, an increase from 40.50% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average of 35.95% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 2.61% to 35,500, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 2.68% to 22,000 [5] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 52.7199 million shares, a decrease of 9.1954 million shares from the previous period [5] Group 4: Management Compensation - The chairman and president, Pan Yejiang, received a salary of 911,100 yuan in 2024, an increase of 180,000 yuan from 731,100 yuan in 2023 [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - Huadi's revenue and net profit showed a year-on-year decline in Q3 2025, primarily due to the impact of real estate pressures and reduced government subsidies [5] - The company has been expanding its new retail channel, opening over 1,000 new stores in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 41.5% for this channel [5] - Analysts maintain profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 453 million, 466 million, and 502 million yuan respectively, with a target price of 7.42 yuan based on a 14x PE ratio [5]

Core Insights - Home Depot reported Q2 financial results with non-GAAP EPS of $4.68, slightly below expectations by $0.01, while revenue reached $45.28 billion, reflecting a 4.8% year-over-year growth, meeting forecasts [1] - Key sales metrics showed underperformance, indicating a reduction in consumer spending on big-ticket items amid high interest rates and inflation uncertainty, with same-store sales growth at 1%, below the expected 1.4% [1][2] - The company noted a decline in same-store customer transactions by 0.4% year-over-year, while the average transaction amount increased by 1.4% [1] Financial Performance - Home Depot's total customer transactions decreased by 0.9% to 446.8 million, with the average transaction amount rising by 1.2% to $90.01 [1] - The company expects total sales to grow by 2.8% for the fiscal year, with same-store sales projected to increase by approximately 1% after excluding one-time factors [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly engaging in smaller projects, with 12 out of 16 sales departments reporting year-over-year sales growth [2] - The trend of postponing large projects persists due to high interest rates and economic instability, although customers are not canceling these projects [2][3] Pricing Strategy - Home Depot has maintained its pricing levels as most imported goods arrived before new tariffs were implemented, although price increases are anticipated later in the year [2][3] - The company is studying customer sensitivity to price increases and expanding procurement channels [3] Market Positioning - Home Depot is focusing on professional contractors, with a significant portion of sales coming from this segment, which typically spends more than DIY customers [4][6] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and plans to acquire GMS for approximately $4.3 billion, enhancing its professional product distribution [6] Competitive Landscape - Home Depot's competitors, such as Floor & Decor, have noted minimal impact from recent price adjustments but anticipate further measures later in the year [3] - The company has not altered its pricing strategy despite changes in U.S. tariff policies, with a customer base that generally has better financial stability than the average consumer [7]

Core Viewpoint - The termination of the "small package exemption" policy by the U.S. will significantly impact low-income American households, particularly those relying on Chinese e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein for affordable goods [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Consumers - Approximately 48% of small packages sent to the U.S. are directed towards the poorest regions, while only 22% go to the wealthiest areas [1]. - Low-income families spend over three times as much on clothing as wealthier families, indicating a heavy reliance on affordable imports [1]. - Consumers like Rena Scott, a retired nurse, express that they can no longer afford products from Temu due to rising prices, which have increased significantly since the new tariffs were announced [5][6]. Group 2: E-commerce Trends - The number of small packages entering the U.S. has surged from about 140 million a decade ago to over 1 billion last year, with Chinese exports rising from $5.3 billion in 2018 to an estimated $66 billion in 2023 [2][4]. - Temu and Shein have become popular shopping destinations for Americans seeking lower prices, especially as domestic products become less affordable [5][9]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The "small package exemption" was originally established in the 1930s to ease the import of souvenirs, and it was raised from $200 to $800 in 2016 [2]. - The Trump administration's trade policies, including a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, have led to increased costs for consumers who previously relied on cheaper Chinese goods [4][9]. - A recent poll indicates that 59% of the public believes Trump's policies have worsened the U.S. economic situation, reflecting growing discontent among consumers [9].