在波动加剧的资本市场中，如何平衡风险与收益是不少投资者与资管从业者共同探索的命题。国金证券 资产管理有限公司（以下简称"国金资管"）资产配置部投资经理王斯杰凭借多年市场历练，形成了以长 期主义为核心的投资理念。近日，王斯杰接受《证券日报》记者专访，深度解析其投资逻辑、行业判断 与资产配置策略。 以长期主义锚定方向 "投资的核心在于坚守长期主义。"谈及投资理念，王斯杰开门见山。他表示，自己在投资决策中偏左侧 布局与逆向思维，不盲目追逐当下热门赛道，而是聚焦有主业支撑、具备第二成长曲线的标的，避免为 主题概念盲目买单。 "基金赚钱、客户不赚钱"是资管行业的痛点，这一问题根源在于回撤控制、客户信任与预期管理的三重 失衡。为此，王斯杰多次强调，投资者应建立与长期价值投资匹配的理性预期，摒弃短期博弈心态，聚 焦标的长期价值将投资视为长期事业，而非短期博弈，才能有机会真正享受到时间复利的力量。 针对当前股票市场，王斯杰独创并践行了哑铃型配置策略。该策略以两类资产为核心：一端是具备高弹 性的成长股，这类资产在市场风险偏好上升时能有机会释放一定收益，但波动较大；另一端是通过DCF 模型可测算内在价值的资产，这类标的能一定程度 ...

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, marking the highest value since February of this year, with a seasonal level higher than the previous two years [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [1][8] - Gold prices significantly impacted both CPI and PPI, with domestic gold futures prices increasing by 52.8% year-on-year, a substantial rise of 9.5 percentage points compared to September [2][12] Group 2: Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [2][16] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, the highest since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2][9] - The increase in core CPI was primarily driven by gold prices, with other goods and services related to gold also showing a significant year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2][12] Group 3: PPI and Industry Performance - The PPI for October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with notable performance in the non-ferrous industry, where prices increased by 5.3% and 2.4% for mining and metal processing, respectively [3][21] - The narrowing decline in PPI was attributed to ongoing capacity management and increased demand for coal mining and washing, with a reduction in the decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][21] - Life goods PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][21] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The rise in prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the increase in gold prices and weather-related impacts on vegetable prices, leading to an unexpected overall price increase [4][23] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to manage risks while benefiting from potential interest rate declines [4][25] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [4][25]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current environment reflects a stable policy backdrop with limited room for monetary easing in Q4, suggesting that interest rates may not have significant upward or downward movement [4][5] Key Points on Market Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in US-China relations have caused short-term market volatility, but the deep economic interdependence between the two countries makes complete decoupling unrealistic. Therefore, the impact on the bond market should not be overstated [2][3] - The overall credit bond market position is considered relatively ideal after adjustments, with a focus on maintaining a balanced strategy [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a configuration mindset, buying bonds at higher interest rates and avoiding chasing price increases [3][4] - Recommended bond types include 30-year government bonds, local government bonds, and secondary capital bonds with maturities over 5 years. Investors with unstable liabilities, such as public funds, should avoid holding excessive long-duration bonds due to their trading characteristics and short-term pullback risks [5][9] - A barbell strategy is suggested for credit bonds, focusing on short-term bonds around two years and long-term bonds such as 5-year perpetual bonds and 30-year ultra-long interest rate bonds [6][9] Specific Recommendations - The credit bond market shows signs of stability, with a preference for mid to high-grade credit as the mainstay, complemented by 10-year bonds from the China Development Bank [5][6] - For convertible bonds, a resilient performance is noted, with small-cap convertible bonds outperforming large-cap ones. The current premium rate is at 29%, indicating a high valuation environment but still offering a balanced risk-reward profile [10][11] - The market for convertible bonds is expected to remain strong, with a focus on technology and dividend-driven investments. Specific stocks recommended include Lixun, Guanyu, and new energy vehicle-related stocks [13] Additional Insights - The recent credit risk event involving Wentai Semiconductor did not lead to panic selling, indicating strong market confidence and a willingness among risk-tolerant investors to buy at lower prices [12] - The overall liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds may be affected by rising interest rates, but from a configuration perspective, this is not a major concern [9][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has launched its sixth "828 Wealth Season" event, focusing on enhancing wealth management experiences through product optimization, innovative online investment services, and enriched investment education resources [1] Product Supply Optimization - ICBC has upgraded and expanded its "Daily Earnings" cash management services, increasing the number of associated money market funds to 106, including four funds from Huatai-PineBridge [2] - The "Daily Earnings 1" service now offers automatic purchase and redemption services, with a total service scale exceeding 120 billion [2] - The "Daily Earnings 2" service includes 10 selected cash management products and extends subscription and redemption times to 20:00 daily, facilitating better fund management for clients [2] Innovative Investment Services - ICBC collaborates with fund companies to analyze market trends and regularly offers "Aggressive Strategy" and "Stable Strategy" fund product configurations [3] - New features include "Wishful Investment" for cross-category investment options and enhanced gold asset allocation services [3] - A "Dumbbell Strategy" is suggested for investors to balance between dividend value and technology growth, with specific fund recommendations provided [4] Investment Education Enrichment - ICBC has introduced the "Wealth Companion" theme activity, utilizing interactive and gamified approaches to educate clients on investment and financial products [5] - Over 6 million clients have participated in the educational activities, which aim to enhance understanding of risk and investment decision-making [5]

Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing steady growth in key metrics, driven by sustained savings demand and the implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy [1] - Insurance funds are increasingly adopting a "barbell" investment strategy, enhancing allocations in both bonds and equities [3] Group 1: Industry Performance - As of mid-2025, the total assets of the insurance industry grew by 9.2% year-on-year, with total premium income increasing by 5.1% [1] - The growth in premium income is primarily driven by life insurance, with a reported growth rate of 5.4% for the first half of the year, up from 3.3% in the previous month [1] Group 2: Investment Allocation - By the end of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance funds reached 36.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.39%, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.7% [1] - The allocation to equities has significantly increased, with a total stock balance of 3.07 trillion yuan, representing an 8.8% share of the total investment, and a net increase of 640.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The bond allocation remains the primary focus, accounting for over 51% of the total, with a bond balance of 17.87 trillion yuan, marking a new high [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The stock balance has surged by 47.57% compared to the previous year, outpacing the overall growth of insurance fund allocations [2] - The low interest rate environment has led to an "asset shortage," prompting insurance funds to increase their equity allocations and engage in long-term investment strategies [2] - Insurance funds are actively participating in the capital market through shareholding and private fund establishment, reflecting confidence in the recovery and long-term value of the insurance sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing steady growth in key indicators, driven by sustained savings demand and the implementation of the "bank-insurance integration" policy, leading to a notable increase in both bond and equity allocations in investment strategies, particularly emphasizing a "barbell" strategy [2][5]. Group 1: Insurance Industry Performance - As of mid-2025, the total assets of the insurance industry grew by 9.2% year-on-year, with total premium income increasing by 5.1% [2]. - The growth in premium income is primarily driven by life insurance, with a reported growth rate of 5.4% for personal insurance companies in the first half of the year, a significant increase from 3.3% in the previous month [2]. Group 2: Investment Allocation - By the end of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance funds reached 36.23 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.7% [2][3]. - The allocation of insurance funds remains heavily focused on bonds, which account for over 51% of the total investment, with a bond balance of 17.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a record high [4]. - The stock balance for life and property insurance companies reached 3.07 trillion yuan, representing an increase of 47.57% compared to the previous year, with a net increase of 640.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Strategies - The low interest rate environment has led to an "asset shortage," prompting insurance companies to increase their allocation to equity assets and expand long-term investment trials [3]. - Regulatory support for insurance funds to enter the market has facilitated this trend, allowing for continued investment through shareholding and private fund establishment [3]. - The "barbell" strategy is becoming more pronounced, with insurance funds increasing both bond and equity allocations, particularly in high-dividend sectors such as banks and public utilities [5].

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of active equity funds are experiencing a performance turnaround, with over 180 funds reaching new historical net asset value highs as of June 25, driven by market uptrends and favorable external factors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - Over 180 active equity funds have achieved historical net asset value highs, with more than half of these funds established for over a year, and some for nearly 14 years [1][2]. - The fund with the highest increase is Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi, which has risen over 450% since its inception in November 2017, primarily investing in small-cap stocks [2][3]. - Other notable funds include Guangfa Multi-Factor and Dacheng Jingheng, with increases of over 340% and nearly 300% respectively, focusing on quantitative investment strategies [2][3]. Group 2: Overall Market Performance - Approximately 80% of active equity funds have seen positive performance this year, with around 1,100 funds increasing by over 10% [4]. - The fund with the highest overall market increase is Huatai PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selection, which has risen over 90%, primarily investing in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector [4]. - Longcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Selection has also performed well, with a year-to-date increase of 78.59%, focusing on innovative pharmaceutical stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The market is seeing a consensus on three main investment directions: innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and dividend stocks, with a "barbell" strategy gaining popularity [6][7]. - Fund managers suggest focusing on high-potential international and commercialized stocks in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, anticipating a strong market continuation [6][7]. - In a declining interest rate environment, dividend assets are becoming increasingly attractive, especially for long-term investors seeking stable returns [7][8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses various sectors including small metals, PCB storage, wind power, insurance, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, military industry, gaming, communication equipment, and traditional defensive sectors like insurance and electricity. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Industry Recovery Indicators**: The overall industry prosperity index showed a rebound in June after declines in April and May, indicating a potential continuation of fundamental recovery in the second half of the year [1][5][19]. 2. **Focus on Specific Sectors**: Attention is drawn to sectors likely to see improved performance in Q2, including small metals, PCB storage, wind power insurance, and independent-driven cycles like pharmaceuticals and military [1][5]. 3. **Export Challenges**: The export chain faces downward pressure, particularly in appliances, engineering machinery, and consumer electronics [1][5]. 4. **Valuation and Market Strategy**: A focus on sectors with low PE/PB ratios and non-crowded public holdings is recommended, while high valuations may be tolerated in high-prosperity sectors like gaming [1][7]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: A "barbell" strategy is suggested, with offensive investments in wind power, photovoltaics, gaming, communication equipment, and small metals, while defensive investments shift towards insurance, agriculture, and electricity [1][9]. 6. **Wind Power Sector Outlook**: The wind power sector shows significant year-on-year growth in new installations, with expectations for continued growth into 2025, although a potential decline is anticipated in 2026 [1][11]. 7. **Photovoltaic Sector Concerns**: The photovoltaic sector has shown some recovery, but concerns remain regarding overseas exports and supply-side pressures, particularly with high inventory levels [1][12]. 8. **Gaming Industry Growth**: The gaming industry is experiencing an upward product cycle, with a record number of game approvals in June, indicating sustained performance growth [1][13]. 9. **Communication Equipment Performance**: The communication equipment sector is benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, leading to improved industry conditions [1][14]. 10. **Small Metals and Aerospace**: Small metals like rare earths and tungsten are seeing price increases due to improved demand in military and new energy sectors, while aerospace equipment is also showing signs of recovery [1][15]. 11. **Traditional Defensive Sectors**: The insurance sector is evolving in both liability and investment aspects, while the electricity sector is benefiting from improved electricity consumption growth [1][16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Global Factors**: Global markets are showing improved risk appetite due to a reduction in tariff concerns, which is positively impacting the A-share market [1][18][22]. 2. **Sector-Specific Trends**: The real estate sector is performing well, driven by urban renewal expectations, while the banking sector has shown volatility [1][19][21]. 3. **Funding and Leverage Trends**: There has been a significant outflow from broad-based ETFs, but leverage financing has rebounded, indicating a mixed funding environment [1][22]. 4. **Future Market Outlook**: Short-term sentiment remains positive, but potential volatility is expected due to upcoming events, with a more optimistic view for Q4 performance [1][24]. 5. **Key Themes to Watch**: The themes of anti-involution and urban renewal are highlighted as significant areas of focus, with potential benefits for related sectors [1][25].

Group 1: A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a profit growth rate turning positive in Q1 2025, marking the end of a four-year downtrend [4] - Key drivers for this turnaround include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle, companies operating with less burden, and a recovery in the real estate chain due to a rebound in the second-hand housing market [4] - The consumption sector is showing structural investment opportunities, with the current PE percentile in the consumption sector at a near ten-year low, and pessimistic expectations fully priced in [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is emphasized, focusing on three dimensions: performance growth in high-certainty sectors like consumer and technology, stable cash flow with dividends over 4%, and avoiding high-leverage, low-transparency companies [6] - A "barbell" strategy for fixed income investments is recommended, balancing short-duration investments with credit assets while maintaining flexibility to manage risks [8] - The demand for bond index funds is expected to grow rapidly, with a focus on government and financial bonds to enhance risk-adjusted returns for investors [8]

Core Insights - The traditional investment strategies are showing limitations in the face of increasing market volatility and uncertainty, prompting a need for new approaches [1] - The focus on macro-level risk-reward ratios can help navigate uncertainties in investment [1] - The "barbell" strategy is recommended for balancing stable and growth-oriented investments [1][5] Investment Strategies - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift, with inventory cycles decreasing from 8.7 months in Q2 2023 to 6.3 months by Q3 2024, indicating a potential recovery [2] - The innovative drug sector has rebounded significantly, with the Hong Kong Innovation Drug Index rising by 25.93% year-to-date as of May 16 [4] - AI remains a hot investment area, but there is a notable divergence between North American and domestic market developments, presenting both opportunities and challenges [4] Asset Allocation - A dual approach is suggested: investing in stable cash flow assets while also targeting innovative growth companies in sectors like new energy materials, high-end equipment, and AI applications [5][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets should prioritize stable companies with growth potential while avoiding those at cyclical peaks [6] - Growth-oriented investments should target sectors with low stock prices and high potential returns, particularly in innovative drugs, service consumption, and technology semiconductors [6]