美国劳工部周一表示，若发生政府部分停摆，其下属统计机构将暂停发布经济数据，其中包括备受关注的9月月度就业报告。 美国政府运转资金将于当地时间周二午夜耗尽，截至第一财经记者发稿时，国会两党目前尚无迹象表明会就临时支出方案达成一致，以避免政府停摆。华尔 街担忧美国政府停摆成为现实，正着手应对经济数据发布中断的局面。 里托尔兹财富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）首席市场策略师考克斯（Callie Cox）表示："总体而言，数据透明度下降会影响市场中的每一个参与 者——从华尔街大佬到政策制定者，再到普通投资者。" 纽约梅隆银行市场部全球主管沃斯（Adam Vos）在发给第一财经记者的报告中表示，若缺乏官方数据，投资者将更多关注美联储官员的公开言论，"美联储 内部存在多种不同观点，因此，我认为要准确判断政策最终走向可能会比较复杂。" 停摆危机正值外界对美国政府发布经济数据质量的担忧不断升温之际。长期以来，这些数据一直被视为行业 "黄金标准"。劳工统计局警告称，数据收集质 量的下降，可能会影响未来生成的统计估算结果的质量。 重磅非农或缺席 劳工统计局（BLS）是美国政府停摆期间业务将暂停的 ...

国债衍生品周报 2025/09/26 交易咨询观点: 建议密切关注资金面动向和经济基本面数据，保持谨慎观望态势。 国债到期收益率 source： wind % 2Y国债到期收益率 5Y国债到期收益率 10Y国债到期收益率 30Y国债到期收益率 7Y国债到期收益率 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 2 3 资金利率 source： wind % 存款类机构质押式回购加权利率:1天 存款类机构质押式回购加权利率:7天 逆回购利率：7天 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 1 2 3 国债期限利差：7Y-2Y bp 国债利差：7Y-2Y 国债期限利差：30Y-7Y bp 国债利差：30Y-7Y source： wind 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 0 20 40 60 source： wind 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 0 20 40 . 80 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].