作为价值投资者的"圣经"，格雷厄姆先生在《证券分析》一书中，就对价值投资的回报写下了定义：赚取一个资产长期 现金流的回报。格雷厄姆先生认为，这个资产到底上市还是不上市，是债券还是股票，都不重要的。重要的是，投资回 报的关键在于现金流。最终股东赚取的是分红的钱，还是现金流再投资的回报，也不重要。 在形成了价值投资的定义后，格雷厄姆和其最好的学生巴菲特，又对投资者和投机者做了区分。投资者关注的所有事 情，都是围绕企业如何产生现金流来的。所以，巴菲特会强调好生意还是坏生意（不同生意赚现金流的难度不同），强 调对护城河的研究（护城河越强，现金流越稳定），强调优秀的管理层（好的管理层会善待股东）。 许多人会把价值投资和成长投资对立起来。事实上，价值投资者的对立面是投机。无论是低估值还是高成长，只要是从 获取现金流角度出发的投资，就是价值投资。这也是为什么，DCF估值模型能够经久不衰，成为衡量企业价值的重要工 具。 导读：爱因斯坦曾说"宇宙中最强大的力量不是原子弹，而是复利加时间。"复利效应的原理是，充分利用时间杠杆。时 间越长，得到的回报就越惊人。复利思维，也逐渐在大众理财中开始普及。 当上证指数时隔10年后重新回到4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the A-share ETF market, particularly focusing on "free cash flow" ETFs, which are expected to gain significant traction and popularity among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETFs - The launch of the E Fund's free cash flow ETF (code: 159222) on March 24, 2025, marks the beginning of a new investment trend, with management fees set at a competitive 0.15% plus 0.05% for custody [3]. - Historical performance of free cash flow ETFs shows a remarkable annualized return of over 20% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outperforming the broader market, which had returns of less than 8% [7]. - The National Index of Free Cash Flow (code: 980092) has unique compilation rules that exclude financial and real estate sectors, focusing on companies with sustainable operational capabilities [9]. Group 2: Index Compilation Rules - The index requires companies to have positive operating cash flow for the past three years, ensuring financial sustainability and avoiding companies with inflated profits [11]. - A stability assessment is conducted based on the past 12 quarters of ROE, eliminating the most volatile 10% of companies to enhance long-term stability [11]. - The final index is composed of the top 100 companies ranked by free cash flow rate, combining both quantity and quality of cash flow [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the A-share market and the U.S. market, noting that free cash flow is a relatively new concept in both, with the first cash flow ETF in the U.S. launched in 2016 [15]. - The free cash flow factor is positioned as a valuable selection criterion, supported by academic research indicating its ability to generate excess returns, especially during market downturns [18]. - The industry distribution of the National Index of Free Cash Flow shows significant overweights in sectors like automotive, non-ferrous metals, and household appliances compared to other indices [20][22]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that while the National Index of Free Cash Flow may perform well in the long term, it could underperform the overall A-share market in the short term, requiring a mindset geared towards gradual wealth accumulation [27][31]. - The index is viewed as a stabilizing component in a diversified investment portfolio, akin to high-dividend indices, providing lower volatility and superior long-term returns [31].